michael ferreira, october 20, 2016 · 2016. 10. 20. · microsoft powerpoint - ua game of homes...

Michael Ferreira, October 20, 2016

ONE OF THE CRAZIEST

YEARS EVER

NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALESYTD COMPARISON

15,966

12,061

3,905

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total N. of Fraser S. of Fraser

28%

33%

13%


8,725

3,9673,274

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Concrete Wood Frame Townhomes

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


956 1,43

5

848

1,95

9

3,85

9

847 1,

783

374

1,68

7

950 1,26

8

NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKETTHIS YEAR … SO FAR

OUTER SUBURBS -TOWNHOMES• Line-ups and lots and lots of sales• Over 2,200 of them…


OUTER SUBURBS - TOWNHOMES

80%80% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016

30 ‐ 50% 30 ‐ 50% Price rise 2015 to 2016


OUTER SUBURBS – LOW RISE CONDOS

• More line-ups and more sales … over 1,500


OUTER SUBURBS – LOW RISE CONDOS

67% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016

15 ‐ 25% 15 ‐ 25% Price rise 2015 to 2016


OUTER SUBURBS – HIGH RISE CONDOS

• No line-ups and fewer sales

• 340 in 2016

• 3CP achieving over $500 PSF


OUTER SUBURBS – HIGH RISE CONDOS


0% 0% Price rise 2015 to 2016


INNER SUBURBS – TOWNHOMES

• You guessed it … more line-ups and more sales

• Over 780 sold in 2016


INNER SUBURBS – TOWNHOMES


15 ‐ 40% 15 ‐ 40% Price rise 2015 to 2016


INNER SUBURBS – LOW RISE CONDOS

• No line-ups … that we could find photos of

• But lots of sales

• Over 1,900 in 2016


INNER SUBURBS – LOW RISE CONDOS


15 ‐ 30% 15 ‐ 30% Price rise 2015 to 2016


INNER SUBURBS – HIGH RISE CONDOS

• I bet you thought I was done with the line-ups…

• More and more sales

• Over 5,700 in 2016



Burquitlam

• Five projects launched in 2016

• 1,101 units added

• 1,087 sold

• Just 18 unsold



New Westminster

• Peninsula by Aragon

• 66 of 118 released units sold

• $680’ish PSF



Brentwood

• 1,600 units sold

• 30% price

• 10,000+ units in planning



Metrotown

• Quiet year until …

• Station Square Towers 4 & 5

• Tower 4: 306 of 334 sold

• Tower 5: 423 units

• “It’s going very, very well…”



Richmond

• Steady Eddie

• 1,050 sales in 2016

• Tax this!



North Shore

• Land of the rising price

• $850+ PSF in Lynn Valley

• $1,100+ PSF in LoLo

• $1,200+ PSF in Edgemont

• $2,000+ PSF in West Van




10 ‐ 30% 10 ‐ 30% Price rise 2015 to 2016


VANCOUVER – TOWNHOMES

• Need more townhome

• 230+ sold in 2016

• Just 53 available


VANCOUVER - TOWNHOMES


20 ‐ 50% 20 ‐ 50% Price rise 2015 to 2016


VANCOUVER – LOW RISE CONDOS

• Need more low rise too

• 500+ sold in 2016

• Just 39 available in 4 projects


VANCOUVER – LOW RISE CONDOS


10 ‐ 25% 10 ‐ 25% Price rise 2015 to 2016


VANCOUVER – HIGH RISE CONDOS

• 2,500 sold in 2016

• Good-bye to <$1,500 PSF Downtown

• $1,200+ PSF the Van West norm

• Van East breaks $900 PSF


VANCOUVER – HIGH RISE CONDOS


15 ‐ 35% 15 ‐ 35% Price rise 2015 to 2016

DEMAND DRIVERS

DEMAND DRIVERS

‐5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000Q1‐19

90Q1‐19

91Q1‐19

92Q1‐19

93Q1‐19

94Q1‐19

95Q1‐19

96Q1‐19

97Q1‐19

98Q1‐19

99Q1‐20

00Q1‐20

01Q1‐20

02Q1‐20

03Q1‐20

04Q1‐20

05Q1‐20

06Q1‐20

07Q1‐20

08Q1‐20

09Q1‐20

10Q1‐20

11Q1‐20

12Q1‐20

13Q1‐20

14Q1‐20

15Q1‐20

16

IMMIGRATION (AKA FOREIGN BUYERS)

DEMAND DRIVERSFOREIGN CAPITAL FLOW

SIZE OF CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2008

$24 - $25 TRILLION

$10 TRILLION

SIZE OF CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2015

DEMAND DRIVERSFOREIGN CAPITAL FLOW

EQUALS

SIZE OF U.S. BANKING SYSTEM

$14 - $15 TRILLION INCREMENTAL INCREASE

WHICH TOOK 100 YEARS TO GROW TO THIS SIZE

DEMAND DRIVERSWEALTH TRANSFER

• 193,000 HOMES OWNED CLEAR TITLE BY 55+ RESIDENTS

• $197 BILLION IN TAX FREE EQUITY

DEMAND DRIVERSBC INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION

‐8,000

‐3,000

2,000

7,000

12,000

17,000Q1‐19

90Q1‐19

91Q1‐19

92Q1‐19

93Q1‐19

94Q1‐19

95Q1‐19

96Q1‐19

97Q1‐19

98Q1‐19

99Q1‐20

00Q1‐20

01Q1‐20

02Q1‐20

03Q1‐20

04Q1‐20

05Q1‐20

06Q1‐20

07Q1‐20

08Q1‐20

09Q1‐20

10Q1‐20

11Q1‐20

12Q1‐20

13Q1‐20

14Q1‐20

15Q1‐20

16

Net BC Interprov Migration AB Int Immigration

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE EQUATION

THE SUPPLY SIDEQUARTERLY SALES VS. UNSOLD INVENTORY

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000Q3‐20

11Q4‐20

11Q1‐20

12Q2‐20

12Q3‐20

12Q4‐20

12Q1‐20

13Q2‐20

13Q3‐20

13Q4‐20

13Q1‐20

14Q2‐20

14Q3‐20

14Q4‐20

14Q1‐20

15Q2‐20

15Q3‐20

15Q4‐20

15Q1‐20

16Q2‐20

16Q3‐20

16

Total Sales Released Inventory

WHAT DOES GOVERNMENT DO?

(AKA – CHINESE BUYER TAX)

FOREIGN BUYER TAXIMPACT ON THE NEW HOME MARKET

2,607

3,004

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

STRICTER MORTGAGE RULES

AKA. LETʼS SCREW THE BUYERS WHOʼVE AFFECTED AFFORDABILITY LEAST BUT ARE MOST IMPACTED BY IT.

HEREʼS A THOUGHT…

#ITSABOUTSUPPLYTOOSTUPID

THE SUPPLY SIDEMONTHS OF SUPPLY

0.6

2.1

0.2

1.6

1.3

3.3

0.2

3.2

1

0.4

1.8

0.7

0.2 0.5

5.3

1.2

3.2

0.4

3.1

0.3

3.7

3.5

2.8

0.2 1 1

3.6

1.2

DOWNTO

WN

VAN W

EST

VAN EAST

RICH

MOND

BBY/N. WES

T

NORT

H SHORE

TRI‐CITIES

RIDGE MDWS

SURR

EY/N

. DEL

TA

S SU

RREY

/W ROCK

LGLY/C

LOVER

DALE

Concrete Wood Frame Townhome

HEREʼS ANOTHER THOUGHT…

HOW ABOUT APPROVING MORE PROJECTS MORE QUICKLY?!?

THE SUPPLY SIDECONTEMPLATED PROJECTS

THE SUPPLY SIDEACTIVE PROJECTS TREND

30405060708090

100110120130


THE SUPPLY SIDEAVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT TREND

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800


ONE FINAL THOUGHT…

SAY YES!

michael ferreira, october 20, 2016 · 2016. 10. 20. · microsoft powerpoint - ua game of homes...

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