michael le page
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This is a presentation by Michael Le Page at the Global Trends and Implications for British Security Conference.TRANSCRIPT
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A climate of insecurity
Michael Le Page
Environment Features Editor
New Scientist
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Leaked cable sent from the US Embassy in Damascus to the State Department in 2008:
“The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs launched an appeal on September 29 requesting roughly $20.23 million to assist an estimated one million people impacted by what the U.N. describes as the country’s worst drought in four decades.”
“If UNFAO efforts fail, [Syria’s UN FAO representative Abdullah bin] Yehia predicts mass migration from the northeast, which could act as a multiplier on social and economic pressures already at play and undermine stability.”
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Food prices and riots
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It’s complicated….
…but climate change can play a role in conflicts
Zhang 2011
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Scientists are conservative!
The question to ask is not:Will climate change be as bad the scientific consensus suggests?
Instead, it’s:Will climate change be even worse than the scientific consensus suggests?
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• We are already seeing an increase in extreme weather events
• Basic physics tells us there will be more extreme heatwaves and more extreme rainfall events in a warmer world
• Changes in jet stream behaviour due to Arctic warming may also be contributing to the rise in extreme weather events. If so, can expect sharp rise in extreme events
• Increasing damage to homes, infrastructure and crops will undermine development and exacerbate factors such as migration, epidemics and social unrest
• We cannot say for sure which areas will be hardest hit – great uncertainties in short-term and regional projections
The coming decades…