20/02/2012

Michel Amar, Monique Meron and François GleizesInsee-DSDS

Methodological issues

20/02/2012

Méthodology2

At the end of the last meeting, some questions remained without answer - Top down logic (In this logic, we are able to propose 3 or 4 prototypes (Level I) which resume main issue that must be discussed in the earlier stages (those conducted in 2006 and 2009)

or

-Bottom-up logic (Empirical, with a preliminary step, with a basic classification with core variables (Isco 2, status and maybe activity)

- With only statistical variables in the employment field. But what variables ?

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Méthodology3

First results of the questionnaire sent to NSIsThe important variables are :

1) Occupation/ profession : (DK, ES, FI, FR, HU, IE, PT, UK, CH)

2) status (self-employed/ employeed) : AT, DK, ES, FI, FR, HU, IE, NL, PT, SE, UK, CH

3) skill/ qualification : AT, DK, FR, HU, PT, SE, UK, CH

And only after: income,level of education and employment relationships

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Méthodology4

And about some questions

Yes, at the most aggregated level

Yes, but at a more detailed level (2)

a self-employed farmers AT, ES, FR, HU, PT, SE

FI

b self employed people (other than farmers) AT, ES, HU, PT, SE FI, FR c professionals (like ISCO major group 2) DK, HU, PT, SE FI, FR d managers/team leaders ES, HU, PT, SE, CH FI, FR e supervisors FI, HU, SE f blue collar workers AT, ES, FR, HU , PT,

SE, CH FI

g white-collar workers AT, ES, FR, HU,PT, SE, CH

FI

h unskilled workers AT, HU, IE, PT, SE, CH

FI, FR,

Does your classification isolate ?

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Méthodology5

First conclusions

* The result of this questionnaire indicates clearly that the key variables are occupation (and with Isco there is also qualification) And status* An other conclusion, some populations are isolated, identified (farmer, blue collar, etc….)* It is important to consider these problems from the beginning of the process when building prototypes. And not at the end.

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Méthodology6

FIRST CONCLUSION

- Also the top down logic seems to be the good solution with two core variable to build the first level of the classification (Isco and status)

Do you agree?

- But, after, the bottom up logic can be used to build a second level

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Méthodology7

Data used

- Tabulation of 1st quarter of LFS 2011 with Isco08 but only 24 countries (without UK, Ireland and Hungary)

- Micro data from LFS 2009 with Isco88, ESEC and Isc08 with conversion table (without Germany, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Malta and Slovenia)

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Méthodology8

Illustration in Europe

Distribution of employed workers in 2011 according to Isco 08 in Europe (24 countries)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

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Méthodology9

A wide variety of distribution by country, for Isco…..

Note : In 2011, Major group 4 represented 4% of the employed people in Romania and 13% in Germany

Isco08 Major group 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Min in Europe (%) 0,2 2,1 11,5 6,7 4 9,6 0,7 8,4 4 5

Country AT RO SK,IT RO,GR RO LU, SI SK,CZ FR,DK NL, Lu,DK SE,CZ

Mean in Europe (%)

0,6 5,6 16,3 15,6 10,0 16,8 4,7 13,1 7,8 9,4

Max in Europe (%) 1,5 10 33 20 13 21 23 17,8 13,7 17,6

Country GR LV, EE,LT, Fr LU, SE CZ,FR DE,Be SE,GR,ES RO,PL CZ,IT, SK CZ CY, ES

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Min in Europe (%)

Mean in Europe (%)

Max in Europe (%)

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Méthodology10

But also a wide variety of distribution by country, for status

0

10

20

30

40

LU

EE

DK

LT

SE LV

FR DE

HU

BG

FI UK

AT

MT

BE

NL

SK ES

UE

-27IE SI C

Z

CY

PT PL IT RO

GR

%

Proportion of self-employed in the population Note : In Greece, self-employed account for 36% of population

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Méthodology11

Examples of prototypes (only level 1)

-Warning: it is only as examples to illustrate the method

-We only use Isco (mainly at 1 digit, incidentally 2-digit) and status, for this level 1

- But, in a second time, we can use, for level 2 other variables (activity, Isco 3 digit, size of firm, supervision)

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Méthodology12

Some important issues- Should we isolate, at this level1, farmers (self employed)?- (1% Sweden, 20% in Romania, 11% in Poland)?

- What happens for business managers? With Isco, small business managers are classified in Isco 5 (shopkeepers) or in Isco 7 (Craftsman

of the construction) or Isco6 (farmers). But, if the size of their firm is greater than 10, they are in Isco 1 with employed managers.

Option prototyp 2 we do as in Isco, we separate small anf greater managers Option prototype 3, we group all managers in the same class.- How should we split up the employed in Isco 4,5,6,7,8 et 9?- How many skill levels? Two or Three? - For ESEC, for example, there are ESEC 6 , ESEC 7 and 8, and ESEC9 (unskilled)

- Is it always necessary to separate blue collars and white collars?

- What to do with students, pensioners, unemployed, inactive?

- How many positions for the first level of classification? Only 6 or 10?-

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Méthodology13

Example prototype 1 : Directly inspired by Isco

Farmers (Isco=6, Status=Self-employed)Craftsmen, shopkeepers, Business managers (Isco =1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 or 9, Status= Self-employed )Managers (Isco=1, Status= employed)Professionals (Isco=2, Status= employed)Technicians and associate professionals (Isco=3, Status = employed)Skilled white collars (Isco=4 or 5, Status = employed)Skilled blue collars(Isco=6, 7 or 8, Status = employed)Unskilled (Isco=9, Status= Employed) For Armed forces occupations (Isco 0), Isco01 in Professionals, Isco02 in Technicians and associate professionals and Isco03 in Skilled white collars

This prototype is easy to explain with ISCO. We isolate farmers. We group all other self employed. For employed, we use only Isco 1 digit. The unskilled ( blue collars and white collars) are in one single class.

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Méthodology14

Example prototype 2 : Inspired by ESEC

Farmers (Isco=6, Status=Self-employed)Craftsmen, shopkeepers,(Isco = 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 or 9, Status= self-employed)Managers and professionnals (Isco =1 ou 2)Technicians and associate professionals (Isco=3, Status = employed)Highly qualified white collars (Isco=4, Statut= employed)Skilled white collars (Isco= 5, Status= self employed)Skilled blue collars (Isco=6, 7 or 8, Status = employed)Unskilled (Isco=9, Status= Employed)

For Armed forces occupations (Isco 0), Isco01 for Managers and Professionals, Isco02 for Technicians and associate professionals and Isco03 for Highly qualified white collars This prototype differs from the previous one because it groups higher level managers with manaqers and professionnals. It also distinguishes 3 levels for Isco 4,5,6,7,8,9.

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Méthodology15

Example prototype 2 bis: Also inspired by ESEC

About ESEC, we made the following exercise : – In LFS 2009 data (21 countries) we have Isco 88, Isco08 ( with conversion table) and ESEC (built with Isco88) .By crossing Isco08 (2 digit) and status we try to empiricallybuild ESEC (9 class)

*we must combine ESEC1 (Higher wage earners) et ESEC 2 (Lower wage earners)

* It is impossible to identify ESEC 6 (lower supervisory and lower technician occupations) without supervision variable.

This prototype 2 bis differs slightly from the previous one (prototype 2)(A note, in French, is available on this exercise).

Ideally, developers of ESEC will do themselves a proposal for a prototype (via University of Trente, for example)

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Méthodology16

Example prototype 3 : Blue and white collars are well separated

Farmers (Isco=6, Status=Self-employed)Craftsmen, shopkeepers, Business managers (Isco =1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 or 9, Status= Self-employed )

Managers and professionnals(Isco=1 or 2, Status= employed)Technicians and associate professionals (Isco=3, Status = employed)Skilled white collars (Isco=4 or 5, Status = employed)Skilled blue collars(Isco=6, 7 or 8, Status = employed)Unskilled white collars (Isco=91, 95, Status= employed)Unskilled blue collar (Isco=92, 93, 94, 96, Status= employed)

For Armed forces occupations (Isco 0), Isco01 in Managers and Professionals, Isco02 in Technicians and associate professionals and Isco03 in Skilled white collars

 

This prototype differenciates blue and white collars at all skill levels.

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Méthodology17

But we can imagine other prototypes

And we can also think about a level 2 which allows consensus

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Méthodology18

Relevance criteria

- What criterias, in the field of employment, can we use to assess the relevance of prototypes?

- status- Qualification- Level of education- Stability of employment - Position on the salary scale (only for employed)- Supervision- And some stability over time

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Méthodology19

Example with variables in LFs 2009- Status Status- Qualification Isco- Level of education Hatlevel- Stability of employment Temp (permanent or temporary),

- Seniority in current job Startime (seniority- Position on the salary scale (only for the employed)

INDECIL- Supervision SUPV- And some stability over time ??

Is it homogeneous within one modality?

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Méthodology20

Example : Importance of temporary employment among unskilled

Temporary in Proto1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Cad

res 1

Pro

fessio

nn

als

1

PI1

EQ

1

OQ

1

NQ

1

Temporary in Proto 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Cad

res3

PI3

EQ

3

OQ

3

EN

Q3

ON

Q3

More important for unskilled blue collar than for unskilled white collar

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Méthodology21

Example : Informations that can be made with the variable "activity".

We checked whether the sector brings informations on the quality of employment with 2 variables, Temp (permanent or temporary) and Startime (seniority in the present job)

The share of temporary job in wage employment in Europe (27) in 2011 by section of Nace (1 digit)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

A R N I T P F S Q G M C O J E H L K B D

En %

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Méthodology22

Example : Informations that can be made with the variable "activity". (continued)

Average seniority in the present job, in 2009, by section of Nace (1 digit)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

D O B P K H C Q E A L J R S M F G N T I

Years

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Méthodology23

Example : Informations that can be made with the variable "activity". (continued)

Turn-over by sector in Europe (LFS 2009)

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

D

B

O

P

KH

CQ

E

LJ

MG

A

R

I

TN

SF

Seniority (Years)

Temporary (%)

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Méthodology24

Bottom-up method (only with Isco 2 digits and status)

We propose to use the top-down logic to build prototypes. Nevertheless, we explored the bottom-up method to build a Level 3. This level will be useful to analyze the homogeneity of each class of a prototype. Also, we crossed Isco 2 digits and status to build that level 3.

- In E-U (27 countries) : 215 millions (employed or sel-employed) (LFS 2011)

- In E-U (24 countries without UK, Hungary and IE) 180 millions - If we decide on a minimum number for a class of level 3 of 180 000 people (1/1000 of the total population), we find, by crossing status and Isco, 70 classes (41 employed and 29 self employed). These 70 classes covering 99% of employed and 96% self-employed .

(A note, in French, is available on this exercise).

For each prototype, one modality can be decomposed into finer elements with that level 3 to analyze its heterogeneity.

Thank you for your attention !

Michel Amar and Monique MeronTel. : +33 (0)1 41 17 54 65Email : michel.amar@insee.fr monique.meron@insee.fr

Insee18 bd Adolphe-Pinard75675 Paris Cedex 14

www.insee.fr

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Methodological issues