MICRO-TARGETING AND INTERNET TESTED MAIL

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B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

TARGETING BEGINS WITH DATA

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• Voter File- the universal base file• Individual Demographics – Age,

Race, Gender, Marital Status, Income

• Geography- Census Data• Precinct results (Electoral Zones)• Vote History- Vote in primaries,

generals• Voter ID/Party ID • Enhancements – Ethnic surnames,

Phone match• Lifestyle (Psychographics)-

Hunter/fisher, veteran, churchgoer, union member, consumer buying power

GEOGRAPHIC TARGETING HELPSbut has its limits

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• Census Data• Precinct results

(Electoral Zones)• Neighborhood

culture

Birds of a Feather Flock Together

Micro-Targeting allows you to target the individual or household,

not just the neighborhood

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The Difference Between Polling and Micro-Targeting

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Polling• Small sample

– 800-1200 interviews

• Long interview –

70-100 questions

over 20-25 minutes

• Limited two- dimensional cross-tabulations:

Women over age 50

College Educated Men Unmarried women

Micro-Targeting• Huge sample – 8,000-12,000 interviews

• Short interview - 8 questions maximum

• Multi-dimension cross-tabulations. 300

variables x 300 variables

Micro-Targeting combines issue questions with voter file data

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• Voter File- the universal base file• Individual Demographics – Age, Race,

Gender, Marital Status, Income• Geography- Census Data• Precinct results (Electoral Zones)• Vote History- Vote in primaries,

generals• Voter ID/Party ID • Enhancements – Ethnic surnames,

Phone match• Lifestyle (Psychographics)-

Hunter/fisher, veteran, churchgoer, union member

1. What party do you most indentify with?

2. Agree/disagree with following statement: Health Care system is broken and needs major reform

3. If the election were held today would you vote for McCain or Obama?

4. How strongly do you support that candidate?

5. How often do you attend church or religious services?

6. Are you or other members of your family active duty military, veteran or member of the National Guard or Reserves

MODELING INDENTIFIES YOUR INDIVIDUAL TARGETS

• Scores every voter on the file from 0-100 – divides into 10 equal buckets ranging from most Pro-McCain to most Pro-Obama

• Models clearly identify persuasion and GOTV targets

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Response Rate by Score Decile

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

Response Score

Res

pons

e Rat

e

10987654321

Highest Scores, Most Pro-Obama

Lowest Scores Pro-McCain

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODELING GOES BEYOND GEOGRAPHY AND CLASS

• The models generate scores that can be used to – Identify Persuadable voters– Identify Issue voters– Identify GOTV voters

• This approach has successfully helped Republicans find their niche voters and now Democrats are catching up, and are using modeling to find donors as well as voters.

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TWO HOUSES, SAME DEMOGRAPHICS

• Votes Democratic• Union Member

• Votes Republican • Weekly Churchgoer• Hunting License

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Same Age, Income, Marital Status, Race, # of Children What makes them different?

LEFT RIGHT

WHAT IF YOU ONLY HAVE LIMITED LIFESTYLE INFO?

• Build a statistical model that compares your list of supporters with the entire voter universe.

• Create an algorithm that scores every voters 1-100 with their likelihood to look and act like your supporters.

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TWO HOUSES, SAME DEMOGRAPHICS

• Leans Democratic

Model Score = 56

• Votes Republican • Hunting License

Model Score = 32

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Same Age, Income, Marital Status, Race, # of Children What makes them different?

LEFT RIGHT

African-American

GOTV

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

In

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

USING THE INTERNET TO TEST MAIL

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B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

B E H I N D E V E R Y V I C T O R Y T H E R E I S A S T R A T E G Y

pgiangreco@strategygroup.com

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