Mid-Atlantic Rail Operations Study -- Benefit Assessment

Presented by:

Jack Lettiere, Commissioner

New Jersey Department of Transportation

Presented to:

AASHTO Annual Meeting

September __, 2003

Mid-Atlantic Rail Operations Study

■ Cooperative effort:• 5 states (Virginia, Maryland, Delaware,

Pennsylvania, and New Jersey)• 3 railroads (Amtrak, Norfolk Southern, CSX)• I-95 Corridor Coalition

■ Study objectives:• Transportation conditions & needs• Rail system improvements to reduce need for

highway investments• Benefits of multi-state rail program• Innovative partnership & funding strategies

A Capacity Crisis for Passenger & Freight in the MAROPS Region

■ 20% of the nation's population

■ Congestion among worst in US

■ Opportunities to build new capacity limited

■ Heavy rail transit use, often over freight rail lines

■ Rail bridges & tunnels antiquated

■ Mainline capacity inadequate

■ At-grade crossing conflicts

■ Substantial growth projected

Mid-Atlantic Highways In 2020 Many at Level of Service "E" and "F"

Source: FHWA HPMS Data and Freight Analysis Framework 2020 Forecast

■ 250 M tons into/out of, 100 M tons through the region in 1998

■ > 100 M passengers per year on Amtrak & commuter lines

■ Rail could do even more -- but ...

Rail Plays a Major Role in the MAROPS Region

Rail Infrastructure is Antiquated

■ Major choke points limit trains & speed

-- antiquated bridges & tunnels

-- lack of mainline capacity

-- mix of passenger & freight traffic

■ Weight & height limits hinder freight movements locally Howard St. Tunnel,

Baltimore

Intermodal Rail Flows, Year 2000 (Millions of Tons)

North-South Intermodal Rail Service is Very Limited

Source: Reebie TRANSEARCH and FHWA Freight Analysis Framework

The MAROPS Vision

■ Improve rail capacity and operations at the system level:• North-south corridors through all five states• Shared benefits for passengers and freight

■ Focus on eliminating key chokepoints:• Obsolete bridges & tunnels• Mainline capacity, connections, &

height/weight restrictions• Congested passenger stations, freight

terminals, & grade crossings• Impediments to information sharing

The MAROPS Program

■ $6.2 B in improvements jointly developed by study participants

■ $2.4 B near-term [ < 5 years]

-- Immediate construction and project planning

■ $1.9 B medium-term program [5 to 10 years]

-- Major projects

■ $1.9 B long-term program [10 to 20 years]

-- System growth & expansion

Near-Term Program -- North End

Near-Term Program -- South End

The MAROPS Benefits

■ Growth in passenger & freight rail traffic

■ Reduced:• Highway congestion• Public highway investment• Emissions & fuel use • Cost to highway users & economy

■ Improved:• Connectivity for ports, shippers & customers• Choices & redundancy for passengers• Development for industrial areas

Rail Freight in MAROPS States (North-South Direction, In/Out/Thru/Internal Traffic)

Tons (million)

Ton-Miles (million)

Loaded Units (millions)

2001 Current 249 97,348 3.3

2025 Without MAROPS (Rail Retains Current Volume,

Loses Market Share) 249 97,348 3.3

2025 With MAROPS (Rail Retains Market Share, Diverts

10% Intermodal from Truck) 337 148,285 5.5

MAROPS Impact (includes miles within and outside

of the MAROPS states) 88 50,937 2.3

Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF TRANSEARCH DATA

Rail Freight in MAROPS States (North-South Direction, In/Out/Thru/Internal Traffic)

• Class I's believe MAROPS will provide capacity to accommodate this level of future growth

• Full utilization of MAROPS capacity will depend on market willingness to buy offered rail services

Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF TRANSEARCH DATA

Truck Flows in MAROPS States(North-South Direction, In/Out/Thru/Internal Traffic)

Tons (million)

Ton-Miles (million)

Loaded Units

(millions)

Highway VMT

(millions)

Current 1,420 321,450 109 25,720

2025 Without MAROPS (Trucks Gain Market Share)

2,439 603,822 190 48,041

2025 With MAROPS (10% of IMX Diverted to Rail)

2,351 553,815 184 44,456

MAROPS Impact(About 67% of VMT Change is Outside the MAROPS states)

(88) (50,007) (6) (3,585)

Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF TRANSEARCH DATA

User Benefits from MAROPS Changes in Truck Flows

($ Millions, Cumulative Through 2025)

MAROPS Region National

Shipper Costs * $ (5,230) $ (15,847)

Highway User Costs **Auto Delay $ (316)

Truck Delay $ (799)

Truck Operating $ (10,543)

Other $ (7,090)

Total $ (18,748)

* - shifting VMT from truck at $0.08 per ton-mile to rail at $0.045 per ton-mile

** - travel time and delay, operating, crash

Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS USING HIGHWAY ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS SYSTEM (HERS) MODEL

Economic Benefits from MAROPS Changes in Truck Flows

Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS USING REGIONAL ECONOMIC MODELING INC. (REMI) MODEL

($ Millions, Cumulative Through 2025)

Direct, Indirect & Induced Costs, Change Throughout Economy from:

MAROPS Region National

Reduced Shipper Costs $ (9,828) $ (29,781)

Reduced Delay $ (1,400) -

Highway Benefits from MAROPS Changes in Truck Flows

Source: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS USING HIGHWAY ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS SYSTEM (HERS) MODEL

($ Millions, Cumulative Through 2025)

MAROPS Region With Elasticity

MAROPS RegionNo Elasticity

Highway ConstructionNo change

(Analysis in progress)Highway Maintenance $ (11)

Pollution $ (207)

(Auto VMT "backfills" available highway

capacity)

(Auto VMT does not "backfill" available

capacity)

Funding the MAROPS Program

■ Railroads can fund some but not all:• Amtrak future uncertain• Investment need is near-term, but payback on

investment is long-term• Railroad access to capital limited

■ Public/private partnership needed:• Bridge the gap • Facilitate public investments • Innovative financing structures

Key Findings and Next Steps

■ A 20-year, $6 billion program to address railroad system choke points

■ Potential for significant public benefits

■ Opportunity to continue innovative regional public and private partnership: • Funding strategies• Technical studies• Fast-track projects• State and Coalition action