middle east and north africa region
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Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Consultations Bahrain, October 6-7, 2010 Chandrasekar Govindarajalu , World Bank. Middle East and North Africa Region. Conclusions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Middle East and North Africa Region
Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Consultations
Bahrain, October 6-7, 2010
Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, World Bank
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Conclusions
Need for greater regional integration to meet energy needs- build infrastructure and create conditions to facilitate exchange
Suitable polices and incentives to encourage efficient use of energy, including move towards cost reflective pricing
Scale-up renewable energy to balance the fuel mix and create manufacturing opportunities
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Climate Challenges in MENA
Impacts of Climate Change
Contributions to
Climate Change
Vulnerabilities to
Climate Change
…building resilience and reducing emissions…
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
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Impacts of Climate Change
The IPCC predicts (95% certainty): 2 degree C increase by 2050 4 degree C increase by 2100 Changes in precipitation patterns Stronger winds (more sand storms)
Combined effects of temperature increase and precipitation variability will increase the occurrence of droughts Maghreb: Droughts have increased
from 1 event every 10 years in early 20th century to 5-6 events every 10
years today
Global models predict sea levels rising from: 0.1 to 0.3 meters by 2050 0.1 to 0.9 meters by 2100
1.0 meter sea level rise would affect: 3.2% of MENA’s population 1.5% of the regional GDP 3.3% of wetlands Egypt: A 1.0 meter sea level rise in
the Nile Delta would affect 10% of the population, and 13% of Egypt’s agriculture
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
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Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
Water: Up to 100 million people could be water stressed by 2050: Water scarcity is the highest in the world with 75% of renewable water resources withdrawn annually
Agriculture: Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture
Urban: A 1-3% temperature rise could expose up to 25 million urban dwellers to flooding because of high concentration of population and economic activity in flood-prone urban coastal zones
Health: Climate change can cause a sharp increase in the prevalence of poverty-driven endemic diseases – malnutrition, water and vector born diseases
Gender: Women and girls are at increased risk. Traditional gender roles means that climate change impacts men and women differently
Conflict: In conflict-ridden areas, violence and political turmoil could escalate over resource scarcity ; e.g. water: Nile Delta, Tigris and Euphrates.
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
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Contributions to Climate Change
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Share of global emissions (a)
Emissions per capita (b) Emissions per unit of income (b)
• GHG in MENA countries are high in per capita terms (60% higher than the average among developing countries)
• However, in absolute terms the region is a relatively small carbon emitter, accounting for some 5-6% of global emissions
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in MENA Region:
Region Characterized by Increasing Energy Intensity
Energy intensity change 2005/1990
-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%
-10%0%
10%20%
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Reducing Emissions
Mitigating climate change by reducing emissions will require increased investments in renewable energy sources and a commitment to low-carbon growth.
•Energy•Urban Development•Transport•Agriculture /
ForestryReducing Emission
s
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
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Reducing Emissions: Energy
Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank
Strategic ResponsePromote efficient and sustainable use of energy resources, e.g.:• Introduce price incentives, and develop appropriate finance mechanisms• Promote energy efficient equipment• Establish energy services companies• Reduce gas flaring, leakage and fugitive emissions
Develop renewable energy sources:• cost reflective energy pricing• Suitable policy and regulatory framework• Scale-up investments to achieve economies of scale and reduce manufacturing costs• Awareness raising
GHG Emission• 85% of regional GHG emissions come from energy production, transformation and use • Emissions are concentrated in the oil producing countries
Barriers• Predominance of oil in the fuel mix• High rates of energy subsidization distorts prices• Limited development of renewable sources• Inefficient pattern of energy use • Continued high and volatile fuel prices strain finances of net importing countries
Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)Worth considering for CSP
Areas Suitable for Solar Energy Development
CSP Scale-up in MENA: Global impacts
MENA and South Western USA/Mexico offer best physical resources and market access
Economies of scale best achieved there, driving cost reduction in the global CSP market
So major contribution to climate change mitigation
Major potential for concessional climate financing from UNFCCC/Copenhagen Accord
Why solar energy is important for MENA?
Oil and gas producers: frees up oil and gas for higher value-added uses/exports
Oil and gas importers: energy securityIndustrial diversification and job creationEntry into global industry starting to take off High demand growth for electricity, including for
desalinationExport revenue from high-paying green
electricity markets in Europe
MENA CSP Investment Plan
US$ 5.6 Billion MENA CSP Investment Plan endorsed by CTF December 2009
US$ 4 Billion for 1 GW generation, US$ 1.6 Billion for transmission
Financing from private and public funds, concessional and non-concessional
Modest CDM revenues expected (~ 1 US ¢ /kWh)CTF contribution US$ 750 MillionAdditional US$ 1.4 Billion of concessional
funding is required
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2 Jordanian Medring
1 Tunisia-Italy HVDC
1
Projects create transmission corridors for subregional exports (Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC)
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THANK [email protected]