midterm sample adm 3301
TRANSCRIPT
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8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301
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ADM 3301
Sample Mid-term Exam
Duration: 2.5 hours
Student name:_______________________ Student No.__________________
INST !"TI#NS:
1- Write down the exam copy number (that exists at the top right corner of this page) on the identification whitecard next to your name.
2- erify that your exam has ! pages (inc"uding this tit"e page).#- $nswer a"" %uestions on your examination copy. !$e t%e oppo$ite (&lan') $ide i ne*e$$ar+ . $nswers or
ca"cu"ations written on the sheet of notes wi"" not be e&a"uated.'- ustify a"" answers with proper arguments and or ca"cu"ations. *e precise+ c"ear and concise: ambiguous or
&ague statements wi"" be considered fa"se. ,"ease write "egib"y.5- his is a c"osed-boo exam: howe&er+ one doub"e sided sheet (/.50 x 110) of notes and a ca"cu"ator are
permitted for arithmetic use on"y. T%e $%eet o note$ mu$t &e %anded o,er it% t%e exam *op+ at t%e endo t%e exam period or el$e +our *op+ ill not &e mar'ed.
- N# "#MM!NI"ATI#N DE I"ES MA/ E IT2IN SI 2T D! IN T2E E4AM 5E I#D.
5ro&lem$ De$*ription Mar'$ e$ult
1. mith 3achine ,arts2. 4ndependent uestions#. ,roduct 6'. easide 4nc.5. ri-bi e
. ransportation ab"e
ota"
7orecasting7orecasting7orecasting$ggregate ,"anning
ransportationransportation
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(6)
7ue$tion 1: 8ore*a$tin9 ( mar'$)
8ach 7riday+ mith 3achine ,arts ( 3,) 9 D has to forecast the next wee s demand for brac ets ;#5
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8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301
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(3)
7ue$tion 6: 8ore*a$tin9 (; mar'$)
(a) Bapem 8"ectrica" has ca"cu"ated forecast errors to chec on the accuracy of a particu"ar set of demand forecasts. he errors were consistent"y positi&e. Cow do you interpret this fact in terms of comparing the actua" demand with the forecast demand
(b) 8nro""ment in a particu"ar c"ass for the "ast four semesters has been 12@+ 12 + 11@ and 1#@.uppose a one-semester mo&ing a&erage is used to forecast enro""ment (this is sometimes referred
to as a nai&e forecast). hus+ the forecast for the second semester wou"d be 12@+ the forecast for the third semester wou"d be 12 + and the forecast for the fourth semester wou"d be 11@. Whatwou"d the 3$D be for this situation
8nro""ment 7orecast
12@ - 12 12@ 11@ 12 1#@ 11@
(c) 4n order to chec the accuracy of a forecast+ a student had the idea of running a regression with thedemand as the exp"anatory &ariab"e and the forecast as the dependent &ariab"e. he coefficient of determination was @.! . What does this te"" you about the accuracy of the forecasts
(d) What is the idea behind the De"phi techni%ue Ahoose one of the fo""owing
- geographic dispersionE- in&o"&ement of different types of participantsE- feedbac processE- use of staff to faci"itate data ana"ysisE- %uestionnaire administration.
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7ue$tion
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8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301
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(?)
During what month(s) shou"d these o&ertime units be produced to minimiGe costs ustify brief"yyour answer. (2 mar s)
(c) $ssuming that it costs L!@ to produce one unit in o&ertime+ and that hiring costs amount to L25@ per emp"oyee+ whi"e the cost of firing an emp"oyee is L5@@+ find the fo""owing ,reference
hresho"ds: (/ mar s)
(i) 4d"e time &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee remain id"e before it becomesmore ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed
(ii) bui"ding in&entory &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee be ept bui"dingin&entory before it becomes more ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed
(ii) o&ertime &ersus hiring and firing: how many units can the company bui"d on o&ertime before it becomes more ad&antageous to hire an emp"oyee+ and the fire him (her) when no"onger needed
(iii) bac "ogs &ersus o&ertime: is it more ad&antageous to bui"d an unit in o&ertime+ or to bac "og that unit for one month
7ueation =: Tran$portation (= mar'$)
ri-*i e is a fami"y-based company specia"iGed in the assemb"y of tricyc"es for senior citiGens. oe De"do+the o"dest son and manager of the company+ is in receipt of the forecast demand for the next three months(No&ember+ December and anuary): 55@ units+ 1+@@@ units and 5@ units+ respecti&e"y. he a&erage timere%uired to assemb"e a tricyc"e is 5 hours.
he company emp"oys #@ emp"oyees who each wor 1@@ hours per month for a sa"ary of L1@ hour. heemp"oyees are therefore paid at a rate of L1+@@@ per month+ regard"ess of the number of tricyc"es
manufactured. oe may a"so opt for o&ertime at a cost of L15 hr and or subcontracting at a cost of L!@ unit. *ac "ogs are accepted but cost L1@ per month per unit. torage costs are L2 per month per unit.
$t the beginning of No&ember+ oe De"do had an in&entory of 1@@ tricyc"es and he prefers to ha&e the samenumber of tricyc"es at the end of anuary in order to p"an against future f"uctuations in demand.
9imits on subcontracting are: No&ember 5@ units+ December @ units+ and anuary
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8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301
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(;)
7ue$tion >: Tran$portation (= mar'$)
(a) Ising the ransportation ab"e be"ow+ find an optima" $ggregate ,"an using t%e intuiti,elo e$t *o$t approa*% . D# N#T E- ITE T2E 5 #D!"TI#N 5@AN: AS#@!TI#N IN T2E TA @EA! IS S!88I"IENT . (1 mar )
(b) Hi&en the data of this prob"em and based on your so"ution to part (a)+ answer the fo""owing%uestions: (' mar s)
(i) What is the tota" cost of your so"ution
(ii) What is the ho"ding cost per unit per month
(iii) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 1
(i&) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 2
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1 2 # ' 8xcess Aap. Aapacity
*eginning @ 2 ' @
4n&entory 1@@
3onth 1 @ 2 ' @
(Pegu"ar) 5@@
3onth 1 /@ /2 /' / @
(Q&ertime) 5@
3onth 1 !@ !2 !' ! @
( ub Aont.) 12@
3onth 2 @ 2 ' @
(Pegu"ar) 5@@3onth 2 /@ /2 /' @
(Q&ertime) 5@
3onth 2 !@ !2 !' @
( ub Aont.) 12@
3onth # @ 2 @
(Pegu"ar) 5@@
3onth # /@ /2 @
(Q&ertime) 5@3onth # !@ !2 @
( ub Aont.) 1@@
3onth ' @ @
(Pegu"ar) 5@@
3onth ' /@ @
(Q&ertime) 5@
3onth ' !@ @
( ub Aont.) 1@@Demand 55@
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ADM 3301
Sample Mid-term ExamSolution$
7ue$tion 1: 8ore*a$tin9
8ach 7riday+ mith 3achine ,arts ( 3,) 9 D has to forecast the next wee s demand for brac ets ;#512. #
*rac et ;#5! ("inear regression):Wee ; Demand 7orecast 8rror
12#'5
15152'#12
/.2/12.
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8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301
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(11)
7ue$tion 6: 8ore*a$tin9
(a) Bapem 8"ectrica" has ca"cu"ated forecast errors to chec on the accuracy of a particu"ar set of demand forecasts. he errors were consistent"y positi&e. Cow do you interpret this fact in terms of comparing the actua" demand with the forecast demand
T%e 8ore*a$t$ are $+$temati*all+ lo er t%an t%e a*tual demand
(b) 8nro""ment in a particu"ar c"ass for the "ast four semesters has been 12@+ 12 + 11@ and 1#@.uppose a one-semester mo&ing a&erage is used to forecast enro""ment (this is sometimes referred
to as a nai&e forecast). hus+ the forecast for the second semester wou"d be 12@+ the forecast for the third semester wou"d be 12 + and the forecast for the fourth semester wou"d be 11@. Whatwou"d the 3$D be for this situation
8nro""ment 7orecast Error A&$olute Error
12@ - - - 12 12@ > > 11@ 12 -1> 1> 1#@ 11@ 60 60
MAD (> B 1> B 60) C 3 11.>=;;1> C 1> >>.3=3>?> $o ;.1= and 6 1>.3.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
All error$ all &et een t%e *ontrol limit$ and t%e error$ loo' random.
7ue$tion
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(10
610610610
60--
--
=0
=0 unit$ $%ould &e produ*ed in #T durin9 mont% 3.
(c) $ssuming that it costs L!@ to produce one unit in o&ertime+ and that hiring costs amount to L25@ per emp"oyee+ whi"e the cost of firing an emp"oyee is L5@@+ find the fo""owing ,referencehresho"ds: (/ mar s)
(i) 4d"e time &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee remain id"e before it becomesmore ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed
"o$t o irin9 and %irin9 =00 B 6=0 ?=0*o$t o idle time >0 10 >00 per mont%.
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8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301
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(1=)
It i$ more ad,anta9eou$ to ire and %ire i an emplo+ee %a$ to remain idle more t%an?=0 C >00 1.6= mont%$.
(iii) bui"ding in&entory &ersus firing and hiring: how "ong can an emp"oyee be ept bui"dingin&entory before it becomes more ad&antageous to fire him (her)+ and then hire another emp"oyee "ater+ when needed
"o$t o irin9 and %irin9 =00 B 6=0 ?=0"o$t o &uildin9 in,entor+ = per unit =0 per mont%F$ produ*tion.
G mont%$ In,. "o$t "o$t o 2C81 =0 ?=06 1=0 ?=03 300 ?=0< =00 ?=0= ?=0 ?=0
It i$ &etter to ire and %ire i an emplo+ee %a$ to &e 'ept &uildin9 in,entor+ or moret%an = mont%$
(i&) o&ertime &ersus hiring and firing: how many units can the company bui"d on o&ertime before it becomes more ad&antageous to hire an emp"oyee+ and the fire him (her) when no"onger needed
"o$t o %irin9 and irin9 6=0 B =00 ?=0*o$t o o,ertime 30 per unit on top o re9ular produ*tion *o$t.It i$ more ad,anta9eou$ to %ire and ire more t%an ?=0 C 30 6= unit$ %a,e to &e &uilton o,ertime.
(&) bac "ogs &ersus o&ertime: is it more ad&antageous to bui"d an unit in o&ertime+ or to bac "og that unit for one month
"o$t o &a*'lo9$ 10 per unit on top o re9ular produ*tion *o$t*o$t o o,ertime 30 per unit on top o re9ular produ*tion *o$t.
a*'lo9$ are *%eaper.
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8/11/2019 Midterm Sample ADM 3301
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(1>)
7ue$tion =: Tran$portation
ri-*i e is a fami"y-based company specia"iGed in the assemb"y of tricyc"es for senior citiGens. oe De"do+the o"dest son and manager of the company+ is in receipt of the forecast demand for the next three months(No&ember+ December and anuary): 55@ units+ 1+@@@ units and 5@ units+ respecti&e"y. he a&erage timere%uired to assemb"e a tricyc"e is 5 hours.
he company emp"oys #@ emp"oyees who each wor 1@@ hours per month for a sa"ary of L1@ hour. heemp"oyees are therefore paid at a rate of L1+@@@ per month+ regard"ess of the number of tricyc"esmanufactured. oe may a"so opt for o&ertime at a cost of L15 hr and or subcontracting at a cost of L!@ unit. *ac "ogs are accepted but cost L1@ per month per unit. torage costs are L2 per month per unit.
$t the beginning of No&ember+ oe De"do had an in&entory of 1@@ tricyc"es and he prefers to ha&e the samenumber of tricyc"es at the end of anuary in order to p"an against future f"uctuations in demand.
9imits on subcontracting are: No&ember 5@ units+ December @ units+ and anuary
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(1?)
Mont% 1 Mont% 6 Mont% 3 End In,. Ex*e$$ "apa*it+
e9. 0 6 < > 100
In,.T 0 6 < > >00
Mont% 1
#T ?= ?? ? ;1 0
Mont% 1
Su& ". 0 6 < > =0
Mont% 1
T 10 0 6 < >00
Mont% 6
#T ;= ?= ?? ? 0
Mont% 6
Su& ". 100 0 6 < >0
Mont% 6
T 60 10 0 6 >00
Mont% 3
#T = ;= ?= ?? 0
Mont% 3
Su& ". 110 100 0 6 ?0
Mont% 3
Demand ==0 1 000 >=0 100 =0 6 3=0
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(1;)
7ue$tion >: Tran$portation
(a) Ising the ransportation ab"e be"ow+ find an optima" $ggregate ,"an using t%e intuiti,elo e$t *o$t approa*% . D# N#T E- ITE T2E 5 #D!"TI#N 5@AN: AS#@!TI#N IN T2E TA @EA! IS S!88I"IENT .
(b) Hi&en the data of this prob"em and based on your so"ution to part (a)+ answer the fo""owing%uestions:
(i) What is the tota" cost of your so"ution
1>? >0
(ii) What is the ho"ding cost per unit per month
6
(iii) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 1
130 unit$
(i&) What is the in&entory "e&e" at the end of month 2
100 unit$
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(1 )
1 2 # ' 8xcess Aap. Aapacity
*eginning @ 2 ' @
4n&entory 100 1@@
3onth 1 @ 2 ' @
(Pegu"ar)