migration and adaptive capacity building dr. robert mcleman associate professor department of...
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Migration and adaptive capacity
building
Dr. Robert McLemanAssociate Professor
Department of Geography
UNFCCC-speak
Mitigation:• Actions taken to
reduce GHG emissions
• Kyoto Protocol provides key mechanism until 2012
Adaptation:• Reducing vulnerability
to impacts of anthropogenic climate change
• Also helping economies adapt to implementation of UNFCCC/protocols
• A number of initiatives, accords have emerged
Adaptation and least developed countries (LDCs)
• UNFCCC signatories have established:
• LDC Fund for adaptation (administered by the Global Environment Facility (GEF))
• LDC Fund = approx $180M
UN LDCs
Adaptation and LDCs
• To access the LDC Fund, countries create NAPA (National Adaptation Programmes of Action)
• NAPA are to focus on urgent, immediate needs
• Action-oriented• Interest in having grassroots participation• There is an Expert group to assist LDCs in
preparing NAPA
LDCs and NAPA
• At present >40 NAPA at various stages of process
• Typical size of LDC grant = $1.5 - 4M
NAPA tend to focus on 1 of 3 areas:
• Agriculture/food security
• Water quantity/quality
• Coastal risks
Migration and NAPA
• Migration tends not to be explicit target of NAPA
• Preparing for distress migration is an important component of Maldives ‘safe island’ NAPA
• To what extent might migration affect success of other NAPA? Or be an outcome of NAPA?
Migration as adaptation
• Migration is one of a range of potential adaptive responses to climatic stress
• Is used in many parts of world (esp. LDCs)
• Is typically initiated at the household level
• Is not available to everyone
• Is not always used by all who might do so
• In worst cases, may be the only adaptation
McLeman, R. A., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.
Environmental migrants
More likely to migrate:
• Young, healthy, skilled, educated
• Middle class, working class, rural poor
• Family ties elsewhere
Less likely to migrate:
• Wealthier classes, landowners, owners of fixed assets
• Urban poor• Elderly, infirm, broken
families
Adaptation to climatic stress via migration
• Not a simple stimulus/response outcome
• Adaptive migration behaviour/patterns are influenced by social, economic, & cultural processes
• Actions taken to reduce vulnerability may have feedback effects on migration behaviour
• Migration has feedback effect on adaptive capacity of source & destination areas
Illustrative case study
• Country X is a West African LDC with large dryland areas
• Agriculture = largest sector of economy, workforce
• Current climatic risks: drought, soil erosion, desertification, flooding by extreme rain events; exacerbated in some regions by deforestation
• Climate change likely to exacerbate risks
Country X demographics
• Median age = 17
• Population growth rate = 3.3%
• 80% live in rural areas
• High rates of ongoing migration from dry to humid regions
• High rates of migration to 2nd-tier cities
• Periodic distress migration events (esp. drought)
Rural-urban migration
• For decades, country X has sought to moderate rural-urban migration by improving services/ amenities in rural areas
• Empirical results suggest improved rural infrastructure (roads, schools, clinics, electricity, piped water) increases rural-to-urban migration
• Strong social infrastructure (e.g. presence of markets, entertainment) is associated with lower rates of rural out-migration
Country X NAPA
• Priority is to increase food security
• Actions envisage building food reserves; developing new plans for land and crisis management; increasing agricultural productivity; increasing irrigation; creating pastoral reserves
Country X NAPA & migration
• If successful NAPA could reduce food emergencies, make government better prepared for them
• Emphasis on management, infrastructure & productivity does not address underlying demographic & migration challenges
• NAPA thin on addressing vulnerability of fast-growing urban population & changing face of food security
Implications
• Short-term adaptation needs vary among LDCs
• NAPA are intended to be urgent responses to obvious points of vulnerability. In crafting them ask:
• To what extent will NAPA activities affect adaptive migration?
• Where demographics/migration are underlying contributors to vulnerability, to what extent will NAPA address them?
Thanks! Merci!
Robert McLeman
Associate Professor Department of Geography
University of Ottawa
e-mail: [email protected] web: http://www.geography.uottawa.ca/prof/rmcleman.htm
blog: http://www.thisgeographicallife.blogspot.com
Available publicationsMcLeman, R., & Hunter, L. M. (In Press). Migration in the Context of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Analogues. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change.
McLeman, R. (2010). Impacts of population change on vulnerability and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability: a typology based on lessons from a hard country. Population and Environment. (Springer OnlineFirst)
McLeman, R. (2008). Climate change migration, refugee protection and adaptive capacity-building. McGill International Journal of Sustainable Development Law and Policy, 4(1), 1-18.
McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.
McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Changement climatique, migrations et sécurité. Les Cahiers de la sécurité, 63(4), 95-120.