mike mccoy information center for the environment u.c. davis modeling 101 fall - 2006
TRANSCRIPT
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Mike McCoy
Information Center for the Environment
U.C. Davis
http://ice.ucdavis.edu
Modeling 101Fall - 2006
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• Essentially 5 types of models
– “Delphi” Expert or Citizen Panel
– Trend Model
– Accessibility Forecasting
– Micro-Economic Land Use Models
– Rule Based Land Use Models
• Strengths and Weaknesses:
A Very Short Course in Modeling
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Delphi Expert/Citizen
• Delphi Captures Professional Planning
and Real Estate Knowledge
• Delphi Records Community Preference
• Most Delphi Programs Are Graphically
Rich
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PLACE3S
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Method
Structured discussion
Sketch planning
Visual simulation
Economic feasibility estimation
Travel demand estimation
Energy consumption estimation
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Preferred Scenario
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DELPHI “Knowledge Base”
• Results Are Panel Dependant
• Makes “the zoning assumption”
– “If we zone it they will come”
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Trend Forecasting
• Acknowledges Regional History
• Considers Past Trends
• Relates “Features” To Past And Future
Growth
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Trend Forecasting
• The Future Is Not Fully Shaped By The
Past
• Constraints Have Not Been Well
Represented In These Models
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Accessibility Forecasting
• Measures “Attraction” Of Housing Zones– Historic Growth, Vacancy, Trends
• Uses Jobs-Housing Balance– Employment In-Zone, Travel Time To Other Zones
• Considers Past Residential Trends– Same As “Trend” Model
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• The Future Is Not Fully Shaped By The Past
• Accessibility Is Over-Represented Relative
To Other Economic Factors
Accessibility Forecasting
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Micro-Economic Models
• Use “Real” Economic Chains
– Production location to exchange location; to consumption
location; for all goods, services, residences and labor
• Uses Real Market Mechanisms To Allocate
Commercial and Residential Space Development
• Measures Improvements In Consumer and
Producer Welfare
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Economic Interactions:Production - Exchange - Consumption
totalconsumption
totalproduction
totalproduction
totalproduction
buying allocationprocess
commodityflows
exchangezone
exchangezone
exchangezone
selling allocationprocess
1
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Economic Interactions:Production - Exchange - Consumption
totalconsumption
totalproduction
totalproduction
totalproduction
buying allocationprocess
commodityflows
exchangezone
exchangezone
exchangezone
selling allocationprocess
1
2
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Economic Interactions:Production - Exchange - Consumption
totalconsumption
totalproduction
totalproduction
totalproduction
buying allocationprocess
commodityflows
exchangezone
exchangezone
exchangezone
selling allocationprocess
1
2
3
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Micro-Economic Models
• Expensive And Time Consuming To Develop
• Shortage Of Trained Human Resources
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Rule Based Models• Use Pseudo Economic Drivers
• Encourage User Input/Operation
• Can Represent Past Trends
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UPlan 2.0 Simple “Rule Based Model”• Let’s users choose
– Everything• Future population (total or by special area)• General Plan Maps (current or speculative)• What attracts growth by land use type (roads, services…)• What discourages growth (endangered species, wetlands…)• Where growth absolutely can’t go (the river, the lake)
• Let’s users know– Where Development Goes
• Mapped by type, charted by amount by type – What Development Costs
• Transportation and Services Infrastructure• Environmental Infrastructure
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Group and Add Weighted Grid Layers
4 0 0 04 04
4 24 22 2 2 2
0
Growth Attractions Group
Combined Effect
4 4 4 44 44
0 00 00 0 0 0
4
Urban Edge
0 4 0 00 04
4 00 00 4 0 0
00 3 0 00 30
0 00 00 0 0 0
3
Amenity Major Arterial
8 11 4 48 712
8 24 26 2 2 2
7
Ramp Proximity
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Recommendations
• All– Use a Delphi Model like Places or a simple model like UPlan to
encourage vision creating participation.
• large MPOs (SCAG, MTC/ABAG, SANDAG, SACOG) – Use an integrated micro-economic model such as PECAS to test the
policies and investments you will need to achieve the vision
• Medium-sized MPOs and RTPAs – use simple urban models, such as UPlan, along with travel models to
test the policies and investments you will need to achieve the vision
• Share, Share, Share– Ideas, Experiences, Data
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Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair…
Choices
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Model Development ProcessLand Use Models
Trip-Based Models Tour Activity
Standard Enhanced Complex Aggregate Simulation Aggregate Simulation
Stand Alone
Factored
JudgementFresnoSan Joaquin
Boise New Hampshire
San Francisco County
Policy+Trends Allocation
SACOG Travel Model 1996
Edmonton
Conn-ected
Rule-Based Allocation
Merced Co. UPlan
SACOG Travel Model + PLACES2003
Equilibrium Allocation (e.g. DRAM)
San DiegoPuget Sound
AtlantaSantiagoPortland
Market-BasedAllocation
Portland
Integ-rated
Aggregate Economic(Input/Output)
SACOG MEPLAN2004
LondonSACOGPECAS2005
Oregon Statewide2004SACOGPECAS2006SANDAG PECAS2007
Disaggregate Economic Microsim-ulation