mike wood's presentation slides from the 2010 world national oil companies congress

Gaffney, Cline & AssociatesTechnical and Management Advisors to the International Petroleum Industry Since 1962

© Gaffney, Cline & Associates

Overview of Caspian / Central Asian RegionGas Supplies

Mike WoodGaffney, Cline & Associates



Agenda

Somewhat Turkmen-focussed but Regional context

A look at some significant recent events

What are the opportunities for the future?

Alternative regional options / additions to Turkmen gas

2



Caspian Known Resources – 2007BP Statistics

Billio

n Cu

bic m

etre

s



Caspian Known Resources – 2008BP Stats S. Yolotan (mid-case) and Shakh Deniz Ph 2

Billio

n Cu

bic m

etre

s



Top Reservoir Full-Field depth map

Minara

S. Yolotan as Mapped in 2008

x

xx x

x

x

x



Turkmenistan and the Recent Major Discoveries



Current & Planned Gas Export lines

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Central Asia Gas Pipeline CAGP 30 BCM (+10?)

Korpej-Iran9 BCM,

Central Asia Europe Pipelines CAE 50-70 BCM

Proposed Pricaspiysky Gas Pipeline 10 + 10 BCM

Dovletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran

Proposed East West Pipeline10 – 30 Bcm



Turkmen Production & Export – 2007/8

Production Capacity: ~70 Bcm/yrGas supply

–Russia: 45 Bcm/yr–Iran: 7 Bcm/yr–Domestic: 15 Bcm/yr

Total: 68 Bcm/yr

8



Turkmen Gas Production & ExportIn 2009, export levels dropped significantly due to the termination of supplies to Russia.Export are understood to have resumed, but at much lower levels. Production capability is unchanged.Supplies to China have commenced – from developments in the Amu Darya.Production from South Yolotan is expected to commence in 2014, at 30 Bcm per year, increasing at 10 Bcm per year to 2018.

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Turkmenistan Gas Export Potential

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0

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bcm

Year

China

Iran

Russia

Domestic

Production Capacity



What enabled the ‘China’ project?A Packaged arrangement:

It recognised all stakeholders (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & Turkmenistan) - each has a 30 BCM/yr export contractIncluded subsurface responsibility and facilities Development

– Sales volumes part sourced from its Amu Darya PSA– part from Turkmengas’s own resources (inc. S. Yolotan)

A pipeline brought to the doorAll necessary funding

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Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline

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What would be required for European supply?

Development of 10-30 BCM/yr capacity on South Yolotan - will take several years

Political agreement on a trans-Caspian route (involving all parties).

Additional work on the Turkmen domestic pipeline infrastructure – but East-West Line is approved by the President.

A unified approach by the potential buyers including a means of funding.



What are the Alternatives - IraqRecent Service Contract agreements in Iraq target 10 MMbbl / day within 7 years. The associated gas is the property of the state.After allowances for gas injection, 60 Bcm/yr of associated gas production is possible - excluding any non-associated gas production – target of the 3rd Iraq License Round.Current serious energy deficiencies - domestic power generation is generally oil-fired – so consumption is likely to grow considerably as gas becomes available.

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Iraq Energy StatisticsGas consumption in 2007 was 1.4 Bcm - consumed by industry. Electricity consumption in 2007 was 32 GWhOil is the prime fuel used for power generation. If associated gas were to be used, it would consume 10 Bcm/yr. (at current levels)According to the EIA there was 8.9 gigawatts of installed power capacity in 2006 - equivalent to 26 Bcm/yr of gas. (assumed to grow to 30 Bcm)



Potential Gas Exports

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0

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

BCM

Year

Gas Production

Internal Consumption

Potential GasExports 30 Bcm/yr ??



Regional Gas Supply Potential ??

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20 B

cm

20 Bcm

20 Bcm

20 Bcm

mike wood's presentation slides from the 2010 world national oil companies congress

Business

cline associates gaffney

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