Milestones in the evolution of the atmospherewith reference to climate change and mass extinctions

Andrew GliksonResearch School of Earth Science and Planetary Science Institute

Australian National UniversityApril, 2008

Climate forcing factors and atmospheric statesAtmospheric states with time, emergence and the evolution of lifeLong term climate trendsEpisodic mass extinctions

MARS (D 6796 km)-113OC to 0oC ; thin atmosphere 0.01 Bar at surface; CO2 95.3%; O2 0.13% of O2 on Earth

VENUS (D 12 100 km) >450OC 90 Bar at surface; CO2 & sulphuric acid

EARTH (D 12,756 km)mean T +18oC (-50 to+55oC)(without the greenhouse effect mean T -14oC);1 bar; N 79%, O2 20% CO2 ~250-300 ppm 2006:~381 ppm CO2

4.4 Ga zirconNanobes Courtesy: P.J.R. Uwins

1.0 mic

H2O

3.95 Ga Stromatolite

6CO2 + 6H2O→C6H12O6 + 6O2

Mesosphere

Ionosphere

Troposphere

Stratosphere

350 km

Ozonelayer

Tropopause

O2 CO2

O2CO2

LUNGS OF THE EARTH

CLIMATE FORCING FACTORS

“Paleoclimate data show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcing. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. A climate forcing that ‘flips’the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm.”Hansen et al., 2007 (J. Royal Society)

ORBITAL FORCING

GREENHOUSE GASES AND AEROSOLS

THE ICE ALBEDO FLIP

ORBITAL FORCINGCl

imat

ic pr

eces

sion

Obliq

uity

Time (thousands of years)

Ecce

ntric

ity

Eccentricity period 95-135 kyr

Precession period 20-26 kyr kyr

Axial tilt period ~40 kyr

Sunspot cycle +/-1.5 W/m2

1 W/m2 ~ 0.75 oC

Sun spot frequency

The maximum global mean forcing since 1750 due to orbital variations = about 0.25 Watt/m2

(Hansen et al., 2007, Roy. Soc. London)

Eccentricity: Circular, elliptic, parabolic or hyperbolic trajectories.Precession: Change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the Sun at the time of perihelion and aphelion. Obliquity: Earth axial tilt relative to the ecliptic plane

CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND AEROSOL EFFECTS

ATMO

SPHE

RIC

CO2 B

Y 21

00

TEMP

ERAT

URE

CHAN

GE B

Y 21

00

PRESENT-DAY AEROSOL FORCING w/m2

PLANTSProduction of oxygen

Regulation of carbon dioxideAccumulation of methane, pit and coalRegulation of ground water levelRegulation of local temperatures and rainfallExtensive fires — tinderbox Earth

ANIMALSAbsorption of oxygenEmission of CO2 and CH4

O2CO2

O2

ANTHROPOGENICAbsorption of oxygenEmission of CO2Extra-emission of CO2

BIOLOGICAL FORCING: THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPIRATION SYSTEM

CO2

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT (natural balance)(Radiative forcing units Watt/m-2)

Earth surface with no greenhouse effect: mean T -18oCEarth surface - greenhouse effect: mean T +14oC

GREENHOUSE EFFECT/CLIMATE SENSITIVITYDoubling of CO2 ~2 to ~4OC since 1750, i.e.+280 ppm for +3oC1 pm CO2→0.0107oC100 ppm → ~1.0oC

Solar radiationat the top of the

atmosphere 342 W/m-2 Reflection from the top of the atmosphere

77 W/m-2

Reflection (albedo)from the Earth surface

30 W/m-2

AtmosphericAbsorption

67 W/m-2

Reaching the EarthSurface 168 W/m-2

IR radiation Emitted from the

Earth surface390 W/m-2

155 W/m-2

Re-emitted towardthe Earth surface by greenhouse gases

1 Watt/m2 = 0.75oC

H2O, CO2, CH4, N-oxides

235W/m2

O == C == 0 variable

LOWER CRETACEOUS110 – 90 Ma >1000 ppm CO2; ~7oC warmer that at present

Deep ocean basins (dark blue) and shallow inland seas (light blue) are shown in this view of the Earth 110 million years ago (Cretaceous Period). Note the opening of the central Atlantic Ocean caused by rifting between North America (upper left) and Africa (lower right). Image by Ron Blakey, Northern Arizona University.

Global Climate Change and the Cretaceous Greenhouse World by Greg A. Ludvigson

EXTREME ATMOSPHERIC STATES: GREENHOUSE WORLD

(Cryogenian 850-630 Ma)

ICE THICKNESS (METRES)

TEMPERATURE (Oc)

PRECIPITATION (MM D-1)

Computer simulation of conditions during the Snowball Earth period Hyde et al (2000) Nature 405:425-429

Solar luminosity –4%CO2 as low as 40 ppm?

EXTREME ATMOSPHERIC STATES: SNOWBALL EARTH

5 10 15 20

GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES (OC)

Climate Change Fact Sheet Compiled by Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan)

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

SEA

LEVE

L (M

ETRE

S)

Last Glacial Maximum

20 kyr

Eocene ~40 Ma

Pliocene ~3 Ma

SEA LEVEL CHANGES BETWEEN EXTREME CLIMATE STATESSEA LEVEL AMPLITUDE >200 METRES

~22 metre/1o C

~4 to 18 metre/1oCToday

EARLY STAGESEA LEVEL RISE?

< 1 metre 2100 IPCC projection

?

EXTRATERRESTRIAL FORCING AND ENDOGENIC RESPONSES

EPISODIC EXTRATERRESTRIALO IMPACT AND ENDOGENIC VOLCANIC FORCING

305 GtC EMITTED SINCE 1750

TOTAL ESTIMATED FOSSIL CARBON RESERVES~ 4000 GtC

“Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary background CO2 levels of 350-500 ppm by volume, With a marked increase to at least 2,300 ppm by volume within 10,000 years of the KTB impact, due to instantaneous transfer of approximately 4,600 GtC to the atmospheric reservoir by a large extraterrestrial bolide impact. A resultant climatic forcing of +12 W/m2 would have been sufficient to warm the Earth's Surface by approximately 7.5 degrees C, in the absence of counter forcing by sulfate aerosols. Beerling et al., 2002, PNAS, 99, 7836-7840

ATMOSPHERIC STATES WITH TIMEAtmospheric states with time, emergence and the evolution of life

1718

19

20

21

22

23 13

14

16

24

PMAM

Asteroid/comet impacts volcanic activity glaciation red beds banded ironstones biogenic events mass

011

10

9

8

7 6 5

4

3

1

2

154000M

1140M

1710M570 BYO2

pH

2860M

3420M

48% KT extinction(Dinosaurs)

4560M PRESENT

Milestones in terrestrial evolutionBipedalism ~5 my – last 1 minute 35 secondsStone tools ~ 3 my – last minuteFire ~700 000 yr – last 13 secondsBurial ~ 100 000 yr – last 2 secondsNeolithic ~ 12 000 yr – last 0.24 seconds

78% PT extinction2400-2200m

600-800m

300

0.0

20

THE EARLY ATMOSPHERE

Low solar luminosity (-70-80%), compensated by super-greenhouse effect (due to high CH4, H2O, CO2, CO, H2S, polymerized hydrocarbons)Evidence of low O2 from unoxidized pyrite & uraninite in sediments and abundance of ferrous iron – forming banded iron formations.Some oxygen available (according to S isotope studies). High temperatures of the hydrosphere, due to high geothermal gradients and greenhouse effects.CO2 supplied by volcanic activity, but low sequestration due to high water temperatures (evidenced by scarcity of carbonates pre-2.7 Ga) and limitederosion due to low continent/ocean ratio. Anoxic, reducing, sulphur-rich oceans constrained biological evolution of allbut the most primitive single-cell prokaryotes lacking in nucleus, includingmethanogenic bacteria and cyanobacteria (forming stromatolites).

Model of ancient stratified ocean with cyanobacteria colonizing surface mixed layer, above layer of anoxygenic photoautotrophic Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria, with a hydrothermal source of Fe(II) underneath (Holland, 1973; Morris, 1993). Question mark and double arrow point to thickness of layer of anoxygenicphototrophs supported by Fe(II) input. After Kappler et all., Geology, 2005

cyanobacteria mixed layer

Hydrothermal Fe+2

Fe+2Fe+3 (OH)3

Photic depth

Anoxygenetic Fe+2

oxidizing phototrophs

BIF DEPOSITION

Fe-poor chert

O2

BIOGENIC ORIGIN OF BANDED IRON FORMATION

6Fe+2 + 0.5O2 + CO2 + 16H2O → [CH2O] + 6Fe(OH)3 + 12H

MILESTONES IN THE EVOLUTION OF LIFE FORMS

Ediacara

Sulphur-rich oceans CO2-rich reducingAtmosphere (detrital Sulphide, uranitite, sulphur isotopes)Soluble ferrous oxide

0.6 B.Y.

3.42 B.Y. stromatolites

3.49 B.Y. stromatolites

2..1 Ga 1.5 Ga Mitosis 0.54 GaMulticelularAnimals;calcareous shells

2.73 B.Y. stromatolitesBanded ironstones / possible Bacterial deposits Oldest – 3.85 B.Y.

Archaea

Apex microfossils (3.47 B.Y.)

OXYGEN ENRICHMENT

Stromatolites: past and present

A. 2.63 Ga giant stromatolite, Carawine DolomitePilbara, Western Australia.

B. Shark Bay stromatolites.

THE “CAMBRIAN EXPLOSION”2 cm

Trilobite

DickinsoniaCostata: Ediacaran

Halkiera: mid-Cambrian

Molusc-like fossil 555 Ma

Microscopic sponges

Opabinia BW

Increase in oxygen was Needed to produce the protein Collagen Connective tissue required to Form complex animals

Antrim Basalt:Mass extinction513+/-12 Ma

Long term climate trends

AGE (Ma) (variable scale)

Supe

rior

glac

iatio

n

Stur

tian/

Merin

oan

Glac

iatio

n (lo

w at

m. C

O2)

C-P

glac

iatio

nGREENHOUSE EARTH

DESCENT INTO GLACIAL/INTERGLACIAL

OCEAN GAP/SPREADING/VOLCANISM/CO2 RELEASE

CO2 SEQUESTRATION/OXYGEN ENRICHMENT

EVENTS

Present

War

mCo

ld

Ocea

ns to

o wa

rmTo

sequ

este

r CO2

Dense vegetation/CO2 sequestrationLow atm CO2Dense vegetation/

CO2 sequestration

ONSET OFLAND PLANTS

O2Low pH; high

CH4 & H2S

251

GREENHOUSE EARTH

513 Ma

374 Ma58% EX

200 Ma35% EX

182 MaFerrar

65 Ma48%EX

145 Ma20% EX

251 Ma78% EX

488 Ma41% EX

265 Ma49% EX

MAB

LAND

PLA

NTS

ABUN

DANT

VEG

ETAT

ION

JURA

SSIC

FOR

REST

S

513 Ma40% EX

CO2 FORCING OF ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES

Land

plan

ts

PTLT KT

CO2 r

elativ

e to

(pre

-indu

stria

l leve

ls) 23

0 ppm

CO2 LEVELS THROUGH TIME RELATIVE TO PRE-INDUSTRIAL AGE LEVELS

Time (Million years)

Mammals proliferate

230 ppm CO2

1150 ppm

2300 ppm

3450 ppm

Amphibians / Lizards (cold blooded)Dinosaurs (warm blooded)

Advent of land plants –

CO2-ABSORPTION

387 ppm CO2

Dana L. Royer, 2002

Time (million years)

% o

f O2 in

the a

tmos

pher

e

OXYGEN LEVELS AND BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION

LATE

DEV

ON

IAN

EXT

INC

TIO

NS

PER

MIA

N-T

RIA

SSIC

EXT

INC

TIO

N

END

-CA

MB

RIA

N E

XTIN

CTI

ON

S

CARB

ONIF

EROU

S-PE

RMIA

N GL

ACIA

TION

(c

ause

d in

par

t by p

lant a

bsor

ptio

n of

CO2

)

TRIA

SSIC

-JU

RA

SSIC

EXT

INC

TIO

N

QU

AR

TRN

AR

Y G

LAC

IATI

ON

APP

EAR

AN

CE

OF

LAN

D P

LAN

TSA

ND

AN

THR

OPO

DS

ASTEROIDIMPACT

VOLCANISM

Low-

O 2 / fa

st fi

shBi

olog

ical d

ivers

ifica

tion

Coal

form

atio

n / g

igan

tism

(rep

tiles

and

arth

ropo

ds)

Incr

ease

d m

amm

alian

size

Nove

l air

sect

ion

orga

ns in

din

osau

rs / b

irds

Prol

ifera

tion

of an

thro

pods

and

fish

STOMATA (CO2 capture perforation)

Episodic mass extinctions

Meteorite cruster

Asteroid impact

Volcanism

Methane eruption

CORRELATIONS BETWEEN IMPACTS, VOLCANISM AND MASS EXTINCTIONSCrutzen P.J. and Stoermer, E.F., 2000. The “Anthropocene”. Global Change Newsletter 41, 12-13 Glikson, A.Y., 2008. Milestones in the evolution of the atmosphere with reference to climate change. Aust. J. Earth Science, 55, 123-127.Keller, G., 2005. Impacts, volcanism and mass extinction: random coincidence or cause and effect? Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 52, 725 – 757.Ruddimann, W.F., 2005. Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate, Princeton University Press.Ruddimann, W.F., Varvus, S.J., Kutzbach, J.E., 2003. Test of the overdue-glaciation hypothesis, Quaternary Science Reviews 24.Schmitz, B. et al., 2008. Asteroid breakup linked to the great Ordovican biodiversification event. Nature Geoscience 1, 49-53Sepkosky, J. J. JR 1996. Patterns of Phanerozoic extinction: a perspective from global data bases. In: Walliser O. H. ed. Global Events and Event Stratigraphy, 35 – 52, Springer, Berlin.

Stanley, S.M., 1977. Extinction. Scientific American Library, W.H. Freeman and Co.,

New York

Munta 1

ACRAMAN IMPACT ACRYTARCHS EXTINCTION - RADIATION

Acraman ejecta layer

Grey et al., 2003

Araguinha impact 252.7±3.8 Ma

0

2

4

6

8

10

RCO2

Fbg

-270 -265 -260 -255 -250 -245 -240

Time Ma

Fbg

RCO2 P Tr

CO2 RISE AND REDUCED BURIAL OF ORGANIC MATTER AT THEPERMIAN-TRIASSIC BOUNDARY

RCO2 - ratio of CO2 mass in the atmosphere to that at present (Pleistocene mean 250 ppm). Fbg - burial rate of organic matter in 10^18 moles/ million years.

TIME (Ma)

2500 ppmCO2

RCO2

P. Ward, 200713C

isoto

pic d

iverg

ence

from

org

anic

carb

on st

anda

rdPermian

Triassic Jurassic

TertiaryCretaceous

Triassic

Carbon isotopic evidence of mass extinctions across geological boundaries

High

bio

logi

cal a

ctivi

tylo

w bi

olog

ical a

ctivi

ty

Royer, D.L., Wing, S.L., Beerling, D.J. et al. (2001) Palaeobotanical evidence for near present-day levels of atmospheric CO2 during part of the Tertiary. Science, 292, 2310-2313

METHANE ERUPTION:Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) 55 Ma

The descent into Quaternary ice ages

Global deep ocean δ18OAntarctic ice sheet

North hemisphere ice sheets0

1

2

3

4

5

δ18O‰

Deep

oce

an te

mpe

ratu

re o C

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

TIME (Ma)

Global deep ocean δ18O‰ values and temperatures with time Age resolution +/- 0.5 m.y.

Paleocene Eoecene Oligocene Miocene Pliocene33.7-23.7

Ma55 – 33.7

Ma23.7-5.3

Ma5.3-1.0

Ma

Pleistocene1000 – 10 kyrHolocene10 kyr – 1750ADAnthropocene – 1750AD - ?

Oligoceneglaciation

Paleocene-EoceneThermal maximum

12

8

4

0

CH4

HIGH SEA LEVELS LOW SEA LEVELS

Chicxulub Popigai, Chesapeake Bay Youngest dryas?

(Hansen et al., 2008)

Paleocene 66-52 Ma

Eo-Olig 37-30 Ma Olig-Mio 30-10 Ma

Cretaceous

Eocene 52-37 Ma

Mio 10-5 Ma Pliocene 5-2 Ma 2 Ma – 10kyr

AUSTRALIA PALAEO-MAPS

Geoscience Australia Atlas

~3 Ma Mid-PlioceneThermal (+20C to +30Cand SL (25+/-10 m) rise

~0.7 Ma Discoveryof fire by Homo

QUATERNARY CRISES

TER-0 Ters-I, II, III, III

Australopithacus

Homo Erectus

Fire-enhanced peaks?

MID-PLIOCOENE ~3 Ma TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES(R. Chandler, 1997 NASA Goddard Institute of Space Science)

∆oC

Images based on Global Gridded Pliocene and Late Quaternary Sea Level, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-000, Peter N. Schweitzer and Robert S. Thompson. http://chemistry.beloit.edu/Warming/sealevel/index.html

120 METER LOWSTANDDURING THE

LAST GLACIAL

35 METRE HIGHSTAND IN THE MID-PLIOCENE 3 Ma AGO

THE MID-PLIOCENE ANALOGY OF CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE

“The salient feature of terrestrial climate change is its asymmetry. Global Warming events are usually rapid, followed by slower descent into colder climate. Given the slow pace of the weak orbital forcings and the magnitude of glacial-to interglacial climate change, the cause of rapid warming at glacial “terminations” must lie in a climate feedback”(Hansen et al., 2007. Roy. Soc. London)

Orbital forcing (June 65oN) ~ 40-100 W/m2

INTERGLACIAL ONSETSSOLAR-TRIGGERED GREENHOUSE + ALBEDO-FLIP EVENTS

Albedo flip(ice/snow/vegetation)~3.0-4.0 W/m2

Greenhouse gasCO2, CH4, NOxforcing~3.0 W/m2

1 W/m2 = 0.75 oC

Estimates of sea levels during Termination-II 135-110 kyr (Siddall et al., 2006)and termperatures from the Vostok ice core (Petit et al., 1999)

THE TERMINATION-II ANALOGY

110 115 120 125 130 135 Kyr

- 6oC

+ 3oC0

- 3oC

- 6oC

+ 9oC

VOSTOK

EPICA

Sea L

evel

ICE VOLUME

SEA LEVEL PEAK LAG>5000 YEARS FROMPEAK TEMPERATURE

PEAK

TEM

P

PEAK SL

MIN.

ICE

VOLU

ME

MAX

SEA

LEVE

LS

100Years

Dansgaard-Oeschenger warming events

20000

15000

10000

5000

disc

harg

e (km

3 /yea

r)

30

20

10

0

%lit

hics

(glac

ial d

ebris

)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Kyr

North Atlantic Heinrich events, ice melt and sea level rises (Salzman, 2002) Older

dryasYounger dryas

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

Sea L

evel

chan

ge (c

m/ye

ar)

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 kyr

Heinrich glacial debris deposits North Atlantic ocean

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

Central Greenland ice core (GISP2)

For the best-characterized warming, the end of the Younger Dryas cold interval 11,500 years ago, the transition in many ice-core variables was achieved in three steps, each spanning 5 years and in total covering 40 years. However, most of the change occurred in the middle of these steps. The warming as recorded in gas isotopes occurred in decades or less (Alley, 2000, PNAS, 97, 1331-1334).

Accumulation (m

eters ice/year)Te

mper

ature

s o C+12oC (POLAR)

in 40 years

Sea l

evel

-120

+20

YD OD

NF

Age (thousands of years before present)

END-GLACIAL (termination-I) SEA LEVEL RISE

OLDE

R DR

YAS

+20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

AGE KYR BP

SEA

LEVE

L (M

ETRE

S) (r

elativ

e to

mea

n 0-

7000

yrs)

Siddall et al., 2003

+0.35 cm/year

+1.7c

m/ye

ar

2.8 cm

/year Ice core temperatures

(Alley, 2000)

YOUN

GER

DRYA

S

• Last 450,000 years:Vostok ice core record(blue)

• Last 100 years:Contemporary record(red)

• Next 100 years: IS92A scenario(red)

ANTHROPOGENIC FORCINGAtmospheric CO2 levels last 450,000 years

CO2

CONC

ENTR

ATIO

N (P

PMV)

AGE OF ENTRAPPED AIR (103 YEARS)

CURRENT 2006

"Sea surface temperatures within 1oC of the warmest interglacial periods over the past million years.“

James Hansen (NASA’s chief climate scientist, 2007)

Western Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Indian Ocean SST

Kyr Date Kyr Date1350 1000 500 150 75 1870 2006 150 75 1870 2006

Tem

pera

ture

(o C)

30

29

28

27

26

30

29

28

27

26

2001-2006 mean2001-2006 mean

1870-1900 mean

1870-1900 mean

6-8 m SLR>8 m SLR

2000-2005 +0.15oC

COMBINED TEMPERTATURE EFFECTS OF GREENHOUSE EMISSIONSAND THE SOLAR SPOT CYCLE

Sunspot cycle (+/-1.5 W/m2)

1900 2000~1

980-

2000

+0.4o C

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-warming-stopped-in-1981.html

Tota

l sol

ar ir

radi

ance

W/m

2

1371

1370

1369

1368

1367

1366

13651975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Monthly Land-Ocean temperatgure anomaly (NASA GISS)

Total solar irradiance

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly o C

+0.8

+0.6

+0.4

+0.2

0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

+0.56oC since 1975

CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS

N.H.

Tem

pera

ture

(°C)

0

0.5

1

-0.5

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glob

al T

empe

ratu

re (°

C)

IPCC Projectionsfor 2100 AD

Earth System moves to a new state;modern civilization collapses

Feedbacks push climate change higher;abrupt changes much more likely;massive impacts to humans

Loss of Greenland ice sheet= 6.4 metre sea level rise

Large biodiversity loss;coral reefs disappear

“Committed” Climate Change

IPCC PROJECTIONS

YEAR

BACK TO THE EOCENE

CO2 >550 ppm

The life force

NanobesCourtesy: P.J.R. Uwins

1.0 micron