milk market situation - european commission · source : ms' communications to eurostat, fega,...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 27 August 2020

The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however where it is deemed relevant (e.g. for comparison purposes) EU+UK aggregates may still be displayed.

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

Jan-May 2020/2019: + 2.0%

(leap year adjusted: +1.4%)

-3.0% to -0.7%

-0.7% to -0.6%

-0.6% to -0.2%

-0.2% to 0.0%

0.0% to +2.1%

+2.1% to +2.8%

+2.8% to +3.7%

+3.7% to +13.0%

n/a+4.2

+6.2

+5.5

+0.3

+1.0

+3.5

+3.5

+2.6+3.1

+0.7

+2.7

+12.0

-0.4

0

+8.0

+3.7

-0.6

+2.4

+1.1

+2.8

+1.6

-0.7+2.5

+3.0

+2.1

0

-0.6

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-2.4

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever o n the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

-3.0% to -1.4%

-1.4% to -0.9%

-0.9% to -0.4%

-0.4% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.1%

+1.1% to +2.1%

+2.1% to +3.2%

+3.2% to +12.0%

n/a+3.8

+5.4

+3.0

-0.4

+0.7

+2.4

+2.0

+2.7+3.3

+0.8

+2.3

+11.4

+1.0

-0.5

+7.2

+4.2

+0.3

+2.0

+0.9

+2.2

+1.7

-1.3+1.7

+1.7

+0.8

-1.4

-0.2

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-3.0

Estimated figures for: EL, and IT

The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever o n the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10

00

To

nn

es

EU* - Cows' milk collected

2017

2018

2019

2020

Jan-Dec 2019/18 : +0.6%

Jan-Jun 2020/19: + 1.9%

Jan-Jun 2020/19 (leap year adjusted): + 1.9%

Source: Estat (Newcronos) - MS notifications

32.6

30.3

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

Jan 2

0

EUR/100 kgEU evolutive* Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to Jun 2020)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

* EU evolutive: EU-15 (before 2004), EU-25 (2004 to 2006), EU-27 (2007 to 2013), EU-28 (2013 to 01/2020), EU-27 without UK (from 02/2020 onwards)

57.7

49.0

38.5

37.8

36.2

34.6

34.5

34.3

33.4

33.4

33.0

32.6

32.6

32.0

31.8

31.8

31.8

31.0

30.2

30.1

29.9

29.6

29.6

29.2

29.1

27.5

25.5

24.7

29.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT° GR FI AT IT FR SE DK LU NL HR EU* DE SK IE° ES BG CZ SI PT PL BE RO HU EE LV LT UK°

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

EU* MILK PRICES

Milk price 2019

Milk price 2020

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Jun 2020 vs Jun 2019 )

: estimated figures for Jun 2020*: without UK

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020 IP 2009

Latest price : 207 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : -0%

217210 208 207 205 204 202 201

0

50

100

150

200

250

BE DE IE EU* Avg. NL FR PL CZ

in E

UR/1

00 kg

EU* S.M.P. Prices (up to 16.08.2020)

I.P. : 169.8

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

*: without UK

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020 IP 2009



476

364351 348 340 336 336 333

325 320

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

SK EE ES DE EU*Avg.

FR BE NL PL IE

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU* BUTTER Prices (up to 16.08.2020)

Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

*: without UK

I.P. = 221.75

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

340

207

EU evolutive (without UK from 02/2020 onwards)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

Jan 2

0

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU evolutive* dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

* EU evolutive: EU-15 (before 2004), EU-25 (2004 to 2006), EU-27 (2007 to 2013), EU-28 (2013 to 01/2020), EU-27 without UK (from 02/2020 onwards)

150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020



200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU* CHEDDAR Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020



200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU* EDAM Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020



50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020 Series2

Evolution compared to same period last year : +8%


EUR/USD

1.1853

2 725

2 446

2 099

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Apr

20

Jul 20

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

* EU evolutive

3 063

3 271

3 715

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Apr

20

Jul 20

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


* EU evolutive

3 475

4 030

3 267

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Apr

20

Jul 20

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


* EU evolutive

3 5253 495

3 675

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Apr

20

Jul 20

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


* EU evolutive

252

229

130

177

35 3441

32

17 14

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2019 2020

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilExports

New Zealand (up to Jun)

EU* (up to Jun)

Belarus (up to Jun)

United Kingdom (up to May)

United States (up to Jun)

651 651

194 194176 165

115 127

88 84

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2019 2020

1000

ton

nes

Cheese Exports

EU* (up to Jun)



Belarus (up to Jun)


EU*: without UK

Main exportersnotice: trade between EU and UK for May 2020 is incomplete.

506

432

329

411

196 198

75 6759 55

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2019 2020

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Exports

EU* (up to Jun)



Australia (up to Jun)

Belarus (up to Jun)

805768

153169

61 5823

4225 23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2019 2020

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P. Exports


EU* (up to Jun)

Uruguay (up to Jun)

Argentina (up to Jun)

Singapore (up to Jun)

EU*: without UK

Main exporters

EU* Exports (1/2)

notice: EU trade with UK for May 2020 is incomplete

*: without UK

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

165178

187

232

206198

240

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes

Jan- Jun 2020 exports compared to 2019 : + 37%

BUTTER exports

2019

2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

439

661707

597

794826

946

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


1000 tonnes

Jan- Jun 2020 exports compared to 2019 : - 15%

SMP exports

2019

2020

EU * Exports (2/2)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1 2291 152 1 159

1 2311 275 1 279

1 347

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

368 375 386 381404

346315

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


1000 tonnes

Jan- Jun 2020 exports compared to 2019 : - 0%

CHEESE exports

2019

2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan- Jun 2020 exports compared to 2019 : + 11%

WMP exports

2019

2020

EU*: without UK

246

204

152143

111 113

99 96

6774

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2 019 2 020

1000

ton

nes

Cheese Imports


Japan (up to Jun)

Russia (up to May)

EU* (up to Jun)

South Korea (up to Jun)

47

66

48

52

33

36

42

34

49

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2 019 2 020

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilImports

China (up to Jun)

Russia (up to May)



EU* (up to Jun)

Main importers

409416

43 4748 4355

3536 31

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2 019 2 020

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P.Imports

China (up to Jun)

Sri Lanka (up to Jun)

Thailand (up to Jun)

Hong Kong (up to Jun)

Singapore (up to Jun)

180

157

78

111

83 8288

53

44

35

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2 019 2 020

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Imports

China (up to Jun)

Mexico (up to May)

Indonesia (up to May)

Philippines (up to May)

Malaysia (up to Apr)

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

52

80 7182

92113

86

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan-Jun 2020 compared to 2019 : + 40%

2019

2016

2020

0

25

50

75

100

125

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

106 11293 101

90 91 94

1000 Tonnes

United Kingdom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan-Jun 2020 compared to 2019 : - 18%

2019

2019

2020

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

Source: IHS Mark it/GTA - Eurostat(COMEXT) *: without U.K.

0

25

50

75

100

125

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

77 8061 64 62

76 78

1000 Tonnes

EU*

0

25

50

75

100

125

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

136 139

96 105 9887

115

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


1000 tonnes Jan-Jun 2020 compared to 2019 : - 46%

2019

2020


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


1000 tonnes

Jan-May 2020 compared to 2019 : + 8%

2019

20162019

Jan-May 2020 compared to 2019 : + 8%

2020

notice: trade between EU and UK for May 2020 is incomplete.

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)Rem: for confidentiality reasons, trade data from Mexico are incomplete and therefore not presented here.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

235 253200 184

247280

344

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes

2019

2019

2020


0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

155 146 145 159 147 160188

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan-May 2020 compared to 2019 : - 1%

2019

2017


2020

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

102138 147 135 121 129 126

1000 Tonnes

Malaysia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes

2019

2014

Jan-Apr 2020 compared to 2019 : - 20%

2016

2019

2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes


2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

113 95 101

185154 159 177

1000 Tonnes

Philippines

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes


2019

2020

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

619671

347420 470 521

671

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


1000 tonnes

Jan-Jun 2020 compared to 2019 : + 2%

20192020

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

33 42 46 47 50 60 59

1000 Tonnes

Thailand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes


2019

2017


2019

2020

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

54 3059

12673 68 61

1000 Tonnes

Brazil

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

74 81 75 86 87 104 96

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes


2019

2020

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnesJan-Jun 2020 compared to 2019 : - 36%

2019

2013 2016


2020

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

465 462 470 471 481 485 506

1000 Tonnes

United Kingdom

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan-Jun 2020 compared to 2019: - 17%

2019

2016 2017

2020

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

236 232 249 258 273 286 303

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes


2019

2020

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

Source: IHS Mark it/GTA - Eurostat(COMEXT) *: without U.K.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

174 180 187 195 191 197 212

1000 Tonnes

EU*

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

440321

209 223 226 250 273

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2019

2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

Jan-May 2020 compared to 2019: + 2%

2019

2020

notice: trade between EU and UK for May 2020 is incomplete.

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

8 800Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

U.S. milk production

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source:USDA

Jan-Jun 2020 compared to 2019 : + 1.8%

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

Jul-May 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 : - 0.6%

Australian milk production

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

.

Jun 2020/21 compared to 2019/20 : + 1.8%

NZ milk production

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

2020/21

GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 26618 August 2020

-1.7%

$3 004

Event 26618 August 2020

-1.7%

$3 004

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-2.9%$ 3 873

Butter

-2.0%$ 3 370

Butter MilkPowder

n/rn/a

Cheddar

-3.6%$ 3 442

Lactose

-3.3%$ 1 303

Skim MilkPowder

+1.1%$ 2 608

Whole MilkPowder

-2.2%$ 2 936

Thank you

milk market situation - european commission · source : ms' communications to eurostat, fega,...

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