PowerGen 2015David Lipschitz16th July 2015

Start here. E&OE.

Capacity BuildingPanel Discussion

Chairperson

Louis Jestin

Panel

Phindile MooketseEskom: MedupiTechnical Plant Manager

Johan PrinslooPower Station Manager

GP technologies

The Adopted ContinualTraining Model

70% on the job

20% classroom training & reading

10% mentoring& coaching

Even during ashift itself

The empowered powerstation operator

Has opportunities tosupervise the siteRequires operating

priority principlesConservative decisions looking at the

safety & security of their plant &people before production

Must be empowered tomake decisions

Michael Levesque(Sub-speaker)

Program Manager, Consultation, design & implementation

MentoringTo create a questioning mindset

[my latest thinking re SA's kids who do Life Skills for school, but not Life Sills for Life after school]

A systematic structuring ofmentoring & task analysis

Eg the USAshipping fleet

An operator can operate the nuclearreactor in a nuclear submarine without

having to be a nuclear engineer

Requires [a MacDonalds type]Business Model which isrepeatable over and over

[And requires ongoing "flyinglicense" type recertification]

"The operatoras leader"

High PerformanceUtility Model

Francis PetersenThe Challenge of the Skills Shortage

in South Africa

Capacity buildingincludes infrastructure &

appropriate skills

The need for an Integrated EnergySystem which is cost effective,

sustainable & socially beneficial

SA needs

REGas CHP

The SA Ten-YearInnovation Plan

35% of techgraduates by 2030

30% enrollment

How manypeople finish?

54% finish 4 yeardegree in 5 years

Q: We should have an A level &Life Skills "gap year"

A: The stigma ofa gap year

Rather stream the students and providesupport for them at school

Look at aptitude & interest

1 SETs per x number of acountry's population

3200 South Africa227 Brazil

331 UK455 Australia

Doctorates and ResearchChairs for innovation

EPPEI

Eskom Power PlantEngineering Institute

Also needknowledge

transfer

SET Science, Engineering,Technology graduates

Dr Jens Reich (STEAG)PHD in mechanical engineering

Masters in economic engineering"The decision tree for capacity building for

power generation in (South) Africa"

Capabilities

Development costsTo bring a project to the start

$2 mil tillprojectstart-up

$7 mil untilfinancial close

Time schedule

Concept6 mint's

Licensing,contracting,

financing5 years

Erection8 years

Operation50 years

Investment

How to choose theright project,

Find out who you are

Developer, agent,facilitator, operator,

investor

IPP is long-term andresource. Consuming

Get advice up front; save in the Long-termSecond mover

Don't follow mega trends, set trends,not necessarily front mover

Do not give up, keep yourentrepreneurial spirit - Africa needs it

Louis JestinEDF Senior Manager

Eskom EPPEI

Big skills shortage

Needs specialinvestment

Eskom build provides aunique opportunity to

develop the skills required

EPPI objectives

Power Plant post grads

UniversityLocalisation of

knowledge

8specialization

Centres

EE, combustion engineering, emissions control, materials science,

asset mgt, high & low voltage, RE

Projects

P&T, CM, ENV, PLCM, CLCM,Smart Grid, HDVC integration

into AC grid, PSS

At different universitiesaround SA, to start 2017

344 hours ofcourse delivered pa

plus research topic after 1st 2 blocks

3 Research Clusters

Power Eng, etc

Phases

5 student intakes2012 to 2017

Pan-Africa self-sufficientinstitute by 2022

Discussions

Malcolm Fawkes

Desalination and 5 MW

37 years atEskom:

education

Policy, Regulation & PrivatisationA Panel Discussion

Session Chair

Melusi MaposaSmart grid services lead

Accenture

SpeakersAngeli Hoekstra

Power & Utility Leader AfricaPWC

Big Transformation Centralised or not?[Create lots of new grids

and they will automaticallyintegrate in time.]

[Potential problems]

[Tariff integration]Disruption

Local energy systems

Command & control

Ultra distributedgeneration

Supergrids

"A disruption profile"

Resulting in differentmarket models & business models

Pure play merchant

Gentailer

Grid develop

Network manager

Product innovator

Value added enabler

Vrtual utility

Partner of partners

Global forces

Demographic change

Economic power shifts Urbanisation

Climate change andresource scarcity

Technology

Africa should leapfrog, to createaffordable & reliable electricity

Mike MulcahyGreencape

Atlantis DTI SEZ

At least 49 policies & rules inconflict with each other

My Question

Q: IDZ vs SEZ, Skills,particularly related to

Atlantis

A: A lot of the legacy industrieshave the fundamental skillsneeded for the RE industry

Seamus FitzgeraldESB Utility subsidiary

Dublin

History[A really good example

of iterative development]1929 Rural

Electrification

[Exactly what I've beensaying about micro-gridintegration for Africa!]

1987 Coal

2003 Wind

2910 EV

2013 Market Integration

2015 Digitization

seamus.fitzgerald@esbi.ie;king.taylor@vra.com

Additional sub-speaker Richard BadgeDeputy CE

Volta River AuthorityGhana

Problem of availablefuel in Ghana

Lolu AdubifaLavayo Energy

Nigeria

158 nil people; 2%population growth

Ghana 1000 &Nigeria 10000

GDP $500 bil 4GW; SA$350 bil 44GW

2 Privatisation Strategies

PHCNOnly existing plants

$2.6 bil raised

Up to 49% ownership

CSFs

Political support

Transactionadvisory servicesIt took 2 years

Transparency inthe process

Resolution oflabour issues

Guaranteed &Securitisation

Drafting the industry & transactioncontractual documents

New discos must make significant reduction in AggregateTechnical & Commercial losses from the current high

levels of over 50% in the next 5 years, as well as extendaccess to new customers

Including corruption

Including lack of newdevelopment for 20 years

NIPPSome plants are under construction

$5.8 bil raised

Up to 80% ownership

Problems

Gas supply for the power stations

Litigation from thelosing bidders

Dealing with legacy issuesat the power plants

$2.5 billion pa needed formaintenance of the transmission grid

Opportunities

10 - 20 MWMicro-grids with

storage

My questions(Not asked, created during talk)

How to create acompetitive

environment? How to get private sectorparticipation & not just talk about it?

How to stop governments frommaking rules to suit their own

business interests?

How to stop governments from putting in long term rules and thencanceling them putting local business & investors out of business?For example: the 1 million solar water heater program cancelled in

South Africa when it got to about 100,000. And by the time governmentrealized their mistake, a South Africa's biggest SWH company, whichhad been in business for 25 years, long before the incentives started,

was out of business. An example of major localisation failure.

How to stop the "DrHermann Scheer Effect"?

In The Solar Economy, HS says that governmentssometimes make policy and then their SOCs prevent

the policy from being implemented.

Eg: Enel, EskomUSA: 2 laws, 3 standards,

1 document for Homeowner EG

EG: EmbeddedGenerationSA: 15 laws; 10 standards; 3

documents for Homeowner EG

IDZ vs SEZ: whyshould the SEZ work?

How to address the SEZ skills gap inSouth Africa?

SEZ "country within acountry" rules?

How to get the Utility tobecome the ISMO?

And create an EnergyStock Exchange?

Examples of thisBusiness Model

I.e. Public Ownership of grids with both public & private participation on the grids

Railways

Telephone Air-lanes

Telecommunications

Internet

Started with Arpanet

How to get countries|communities towork together, intra & inter?

My suggestions

Tax & other IPPstructures

Investment costs forrooftop owners

Before tax & beforeVAT investments

OMI costs before tax

To help with not having toraise the general tariffs to

unaffordable levels

Invokes private finance

How to lowerbarriers to entry?Eg tariff structures

Eg TOU

Energy StoragePanel Discussion

Chairperson

David Lipschitz

Programmer &Keynote Speaker

Panel

Mu'azzam KippieEskom

Non-minimum problem in Hydro

Improve "Frequency controlperformance"

Frequency is a result of themismatch in the demand &

supply of electricity

Open the valves to helpcontrol this problem

Eg after agenerator trip Instantaneous reserve, for up to 10

minutes, 180 MW at Palmiet, Drakenberg, Gariep & others

Ingula to be added

50 Hz

Pumped storage - forpeaking & tfr control

1400 MW total

Non-minimumphase behavior

Flownex software

Solve the problem byTransient droop tosolve the problem

Open the guide vanes in adifferent way (a parabolic manner) or slower

Opposing ramps

Did you modelthe turbine?

Wikus van Niekerk & Frank DinterStellenbosch University & STERG

CSP with Storage

Age of power stations

Our newest is 15 years oldWe have a 35 GW gap

CSP

The oldest functioningplant is 35 years old

Can store at scale:100 mWh, etc

Solar tower is more efficient thanTrough, but you have to build the

tower & the heliostats

The top plant ran 24 hoursa day for 35 days!

Dispatchable power

Advantages

Ride through

You can store and use dayslater with 98% efficiency

Voltage &frequency

control

Can store & useat the peak

CSP shouldreplace nuclear and Peaking Power Plants

Localisation is best with CSP, for amanufacturing industry

Steel, piping, pressurevessels already here

Low barriers to entry in CSPmanufacture, especially when

compared with Nuclear

Capacity?

50 km by 50 kmground coverage

250 Solana type plants for what we produce now

SA 3000 kWh per sq meter;Spain 2100

Storage

Molten salt

Cost

R1.46 and 2.7 xat peak time

Ie compete withthe OCGT's

Unsubsidized CSPis possible now

Problem

In Northern Cape not enough gridcapacity to evacuate the power

Solar Thermal EnergyResearch Group

Concentrating.sun.ac.za

Precious HusvuEskom

PV with Compressed Air Storage

Also Dr Davidson& Dr Adams

Why should do DR and whatare the alternatives?

Site nearPietersburg /Polokwane

30 MW PV

Compressed airIn old depletedgad reservoirs

Heat energymust be stored

In Germany since 1971

Inverter

Modularmultilevelconverter

Verification &Validation of project

Wereexpectations

met?