Mining the Moon for Fun and Profit

George SowersJune 19, 2019

Copyright © 2019 George SowersAll Rights Reserved

• Mounting evidence that water ice exists in large quantities near the lunar poles

• Water has many uses for sustainable space exploration & development

• Essential for all life• Oxygen for breathing air• Radiation shielding• LO2/LH2 rocket propellant

• Use of space-sourced propellant dramatically lowers the cost of all beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) transportation

• Enables the commercialization of cislunar space• Enables affordable Mars missions

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Background

• Recent study by Li, et. al. indicates surface ice in concentrations of up to 30wt%

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Lunar Polar Surface Ice

Li, S, Lucey, P.G., Milliken, R.E., Hayne, P.O., Fisher, E., Williams, J.P., Hurley, D.M., Elphic, R.C., Direct evidence of surface exposed water ice in the lunar polar regions. PNAS (2018). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802345115

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Developing a Proven Reserve

CRIRSCO, Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards, Standard Definitions, 2012. http://www.crirsco.com/news_items/CRIRSCO_standard_definitions_oct2012.pdf

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Lunar Ice Resource Exploration Roadmap2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mine dev.

Modeling

Ground truth mission(s)

Cubesat & impactor swarms

Tethered sensor lander(s)

Rover/ sampler

Technology development

Full scaleindustrial

production

Mining HW developmentDeployment & set-up

HW development

Technology demonstrations

Launch Mission Ops

Geologic modeling & resource mapping

Technology developmentHW development

Launch Mission Ops

Technology developmentHW development

Launch Mission Ops

Technology developmentHW development

Launch Mission Ops

Propellant Business Case• In 2016, United Launch Alliance (ULA) developed a

business case for purchasing LO2/LH2 propellant in cislunar space

• Based entirely on lowering the cost to launch satellites to GEO

• ULA set prices at various points in cislunar space based on the cost to transport propellant from the point of origin to the point of use (sale)

• To close this business case, 1100 mT of propellant must be produced on the Moon for $500/kg or less

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Costs of Propellant in Cislunar Space

LEO

GEO

EML1LLO

$0k

$5k

$15k

$20k

Cost

of R

esou

rces

($/k

g)

GTOLEO GSO L1 (or Gateway) Moon

$35k/kg

$0.5k/kg

$10k

$0.001k/kg

Earth

$11k/kg

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Cost From the Moon (or Asteroid)

Cost From Earth

From Earth, Utilizing Beyond Earth Propellant

• All beyond LEO missions benefit from lunar propellant (refueling)• Commercial

• ULA• Blue Origin• SpaceX

• NASA• International

• ESA• Moon Village Association• Moon Valley (Japan)

• Military• Risks

• Cryo storage and transfer• Government commitment

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Markets

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Lunar Propellant Mine Overview

Credit: ULA

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Capture Tent Concept

Secondary optics

Cold Trap

Sublimation

Concentrated sunlight from crater rim

Impermeable tent with reflective inner surface

Cold Trap

Not to scale

Ice hauler Ice hauler

Optional conducting rods or heating elements

• Phase I NIAC recently awarded to further Thermal Mining concept

• Survey the solar system for Thermal mining targets• Enhance the lunar propellant architecture• Conduct proof of concept testing on icy regolith samples

in our cryogenic vacuum chamber

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Phase I NIAC Award

Crushed Snow Highlands SimulantFines Ice Highlands Simulant

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Estimated Architecture Costs

• Resource exploration campaign cost born by governments

• Great synergy with science• Great benefit to long term sustainability of government

exploration programs

• Four year development and build for ice mining and propellant production systems

• One year delivery and set up on lunar surface• Ten year operational life

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General Business Case Assumptions

1. Commercial only• Market is propellant delivered to LEO

• Used to refuel upper stages delivering mass to GEO or other beyond LEO destination

• Price is $3000/kg in LEO, equates to $500/kg on lunar surface• Demand is 1100 mT/yr

2. Commercial + NASA (w/investment)• Commercial demand as above• NASA demand is 100 mT/yr delivered on the lunar

surface• Refuel landers

• NASA COTS-like investment of $800M in the development of the system

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Scenarios

3. Commercial + NASA (w/price premium)• Commercial demand as above• NASA demand is 100 mT/yr delivered on the lunar

surface• Refuel landers

• No NASA investment• NASA pays $10,000/kg for propellant on lunar surface

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Scenarios, Cont’d

Parameter Commercial Only Commercial + NASA (w/invest.)

Commercial + NASA (prem. price)

Propellant production rate

1100 mT/yr 1200 mT/yr 1200 mT/yr

Com. price (Moon) $500/kg $500/kg $500/kg

NASA price (Moon) NA $500/kg $10,000/kg

HW Dev. cost $820M $895M $895M

HW Production cost $590M $640M $640M

Transportation cost $1062M $1062M $1062M

Annual ops & maintenance cost

$75M $82M $82M

Annual revenue $550M $600M $1550M

NASA investment $0M $800M $0M

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

9.8% 18.3% 31.6%

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Business Case Analysis

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Cum

ulat

ive c

ash

($B)

Year

Commercial + NASA (w/invest.)Commercial onlyCommercial + NASA (prem. Price)

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Mining Company Cash Flow

IRR = 18.3%

IRR = 9.8%

IRR = 31.6%

• Scenario 2• $800M initial investment• $1.3B total cost for 10 years of propellant supply• $3.45B annual savings (versus launching propellant from

Earth)• 80% IRR

• Scenario 3• No initial investment• $10B total cost for 10 years of propellant supply• $2.5B annual savings (versus launching propellant from

Earth)

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NASA Benefit

• Public-Private partnership constructs can substantially increase the returns to a commercial lunar propellant company

• Both models work• NASA up front investment to receive commodity price for

propellant• NASA pledge (guarantee) to buy propellant at a pre-negotiated

price for 10 years• Substantially below cost to transport propellant from Earth, • But above commercial commodity price

• NASA investment reduces up front cash well (debt) and provides early NASA commitment

• The more NASA investment, the better• NASA paying a premium price may generate higher returns

in the long run, but entails the risk of long term government commitment

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Discussion

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Developing a Proven Reserve

CRIRSCO, Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards, Standard Definitions, 2012. http://www.crirsco.com/news_items/CRIRSCO_standard_definitions_oct2012.pdf

Resource Factor Maturity Comments

Geologic knowledge Some remote sensing data, no ground truth

Mining Mining concept developed

Processing Terrestrial processes well developed

Markets No current buyers but strong incentives

Economics Initial analysis favorable, but large uncertainties

Legal US legislation, but still regulatory gaps

Environmental No regulations yet

Infrastructure No current infrastructure, plan in early stages

Governmental US, Europe currently focused on the Moon, subject to political process

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Lunar Water Resource Maturity Model

Factor immature or unfavorable

Factor moderately mature/favorable

Factor mature & favorable

• Maturity model captures progress toward “Proven Reserve”• All green = Proven Reserve

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Shoemaker Crater in 2030

Image courtesy Room