MIROC-ES2L

A. Prediction and Projection of Large-Scale Climate Changes Based on Advanced Model DevelopmentMIROC6-CGCM

B. Sophisticated Earth system model for evaluating emission reductions neededMIROC-ES2L

C. Integrated Climate Change Projection

D. Integrated Hazard Prediction

MIROC: Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate

MIROC-ES2L

Physics“MIROC-AGCM”

Physics“COCO”

Physics“MATSIRO”

Climate model “MIROC5.2”

Aerosol“SPRINTARS”

Biogeochem.“OECO-v2”

Biogeochem.“VISIT-e”

Earth system model “MIROC-ES2L”

Description of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and evaluation of its climate–biogeochemical processes and feedbacks

Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Hiroaki Tatebe, Maki A. Noguchi, Manabu Abe, Rumi Ohgaito, Akinori Ito, Dai Yamazaki, Hideki Okajima, Akihiko Ito, Kumiko Takata, Koji Ogochi, Shingo Watanabe, Michio Kawamiya

MIROC-ES2LModel Data

GPP

Biomass

SOC

Validation

(Hajima et al., to be submitted to GMD)

MIROC-ES2L

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

SSP1-1.9

Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

SSP1-2.6

Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

SSP5-3.4

Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

SSP2-4.5

Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

SSP3-7.0

Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

SSP5-8.5

Primary Secondary Urban Crop Pasture

LUH2 data

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Secondary

Pasture

Crop

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Secondary

Pasture

Crop

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PastureCrop

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Primary

Secondary

Pasture

Crop

Forest areaIncrease in SSP1Decrease in SSP370

Crop + Pasture

Prim + Secon

Primary

Secondary

CroplandPasture

fLUC, PV + fLUC, SV + fLUC, UR + fLUC, CR + fLUC, PS = 1

12 states => 5 states3 cropland types

MIROC-ES2LMATSIRO(Physics)

VISIT(Ecosystem)

Non-Agriculture

Agriculture(Crop + Managed pasture)

Primary Veg.

Secondary Veg.

Urban

CroplandPasture

Specific parameter file / LAI

Deforestation and abandonment

Infertile

harvest/fertilization/N fixation

/specific parameters

With higher leaf turnover

Soil moisture/ Runoff rate

LAI / N leaching

fLUC, PV + fLUC, SV + fLUC, UR + fLUC, CR + fLUC, PS = 1

MIROC-ES2L

Secondary Pasture

Mass ‘dilution’

Abandon

1. Transition (mass change and rebalancing)

2. Harvest

Secondary

Harvested mass

Harvest

Urban

Transfer to product pools

CO2emission

Regrowth

CO2 absorb

Area fraction

Biomass per unit area etc.

Area fraction

Biomass per unit area etc.

MIROC-ES2L

Secondary Cropland

Area fraction

Biomass per unit area etc.

1. N fertilizer

Fertilizer

SecondaryN fixer

2. N fix (agr.)

N fixer

Secondary Urban

3. Urban

CO2

4. Crop harvest

Possible, but not introduced:・Irrigation in cropland・BECCS (eternally unreleased C)

Transfer to product pools

CO2emission

MIROC-ES2L

MIROC-ES2L

couceutratioa-dr.lu#pi control !

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Done Done Done DoneComing (Done)

Example: SOC (will be discussed tomorrow)

MIROC-ES2LDone (will appear on ESGF soon)• Historical, noLu, ssp-LU data exchange (conc.- and emission-driven)

Ongoing• Idealized deforestation

Future• Land-only simulations: land-hist, land-cCO2, land-cClim• More ensembles?

Far future (CMIP7 and AR7?)• Cropland irrigation, more cropland types (e.g., bio-fuel crop)• Permafrost• Re-coupling with dynamic vegetation• Phosphorus limitation?• Total greenhouse gas budget (CH4 from paddy field, N2O from croplands)

MIROC-ES2L

(Hajima et al., to be submitted to GMD)

MIROC-ES2L