miskolczi-2015 greenhouse effect and energetics

8/20/2019 Miskolczi-2015 Greenhouse Effect and Energetics

1/42

A légköri CO2

1971 − ELTE TTK ATOMFIZIKA TANSZÉK 1974 − SZÁMOK1976 − ELTE TTK CSILLAGÁSZATI TANSZÉK 1981 − MTA FÖLDTUDOMÁNYI OSZTÁLY

Fizikus diploma Programozói diploma

Doktori diploma Kandidátusi oklevel

BudapestBerlin

LeningrádMoszkva

SzófiaModena

Trieste

Ilorin

Lagos

Ma

Ha

Calgary

Portland

Melbourne

Amsterdam

Sanghai

Sidney

OMSZ KLFI Sugárzási Osztál

INTERKOZMOSZ: Leningrád,

Dundee, Oxford − F. Taylor, D

NIGÉRIA, UNIVERSITY OF CA

ICTP G. Furlan, IMGA CNR R

Colledge Park, UMD,(GOES,G


2/42

Far-Infrared Properties of the Earth Radiation B

A Proposal Submitted to NRA 03-OES-02

Submitted Apri l 15 2003

Martin G. Mlynczak, Bill Collins, Dave Kratz, Ping

Christopher J. Mertens, Ferenc Mislkolczi, Robert G. E

Bil l Smith, Sr .,

Bryan Baum,

Paul Stackhouse,

Larry G

• Mlynczak, Miskolczi, Mertens,and Smith : CERES and AIRS window r

• Kratz, Mertens, Miskolczi, Gordley : Far-IR flux derivations• Ellingson, Mertens : Radiative cooling rates

• Miskolczi, Kratz, and Mlynczak : Spectral Greenhouse Effect

• Yang, Baum, and Stackhouse : Far-IR Cirrus Properties

• Collins, Mertens, Kratz, Miskolczi : Climate Model Comparisons

• All : Error Analysis

8.1 Science Team Member Responsibili ties


3/42


4/42

ÜVEGHÁZHATÁS ÉS ENERGETIKA

A CO2 ÜVEGHÁZHATÁSON ALAPULÓ GLOBÁLIS FELME

A KLÍMAVÁLTOZÁS MEGFIGYELT EMPIRIKUS TÉNYEI ÉS A KA

ELMÉLETI MEGFONTOLÁSOK ENERGIAPOLITIKAI VON

Dr. Ferenc M. Miskolczi

3 Holston Lane, Hampton, VA 23664, USA

e-mail: [email protected]


5/42


6/42

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT : G = SU - FA = SU - OLRA =

Some solar

radiation is

reflected by

Earth and the

atmosphere

Some of the i

passes through

Some is a

greenhouseemitted in all d

atmosphere. Th

to warm Earth’

lower at

Infrared

di ti i

Some radiation isabsorbed by Earth’s surface and warms it

Ear th‘s Surface

Atmosphere

n overview from the Royal Society and the US Nat

cademy of Sciences

RS & NAS Feb. 27th 2014

SU

ST

AA

ED

FA

FR

FE

FA= OLRA

http://-/?-http://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/learning-from-a-simple-model/http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/....gcsebitesize/science/ocr_gateway/energy_resources/global_warmingrev1.shtml


7/42

http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/....

g lobal_warmingrev1.shtml

http://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/

learnin g-from-a-simple-model

http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget http:/ /www.sei pub.org/des/Download.aspxID=21810

http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/....gcsebitesize/science/ocr_gateway/energy_resources/global_warmingrev1.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/....gcsebitesize/science/ocr_gateway/energy_resources/global_warmingrev1.shtmlhttp://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/learning-from-a-simple-model/http://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/learning-from-a-simple-model/http://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/learning-from-a-simple-model/http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/http://www.seipub.org/des/Download.aspxID=21810http://www.seipub.org/des/Download.aspxID=21810http://www.seipub.org/des/Download.aspxID=21810http://science-edu.larc.nasa.gov/energy_budget/http://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/learning-from-a-simple-model/http://www.realclimate.org/....2007/04/learning-from-a-simple-model/http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/....gcsebitesize/science/ocr_gateway/energy_resources/global_warmingrev1.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/....gcsebitesize/science/ocr_gateway/energy_resources/global_warmingrev1.shtml


8/42

PLANETARY GREENHOUSE EFFECT LINKE

ATMOSPHERIC IR ABSORPTION


9/42

KT97


10/42

G. STEPHENS 2012 : Updated energy balance

TOA imbalance 0.60.4

Clear-skyemission

266.43.3

Outgoing

longwaveradiation

All-sky longwave

absorption

Longwave

cloud effect26.74

26.65 3199Clear-sky emission

to surface

All-sky emission

to surface

Surface shortwave

absorption

Clear-sky

refection

Atmospheric

absorption

27.24.6

47.53

55

1656 233 3985345.69

239.73.3Reflected solar

Shortwave

cloud effect

100.02Incoming

solar

Sensible

heating

Latent

heating

340.20.1

Surface imbalance 0.617

Surface

reflectionSurface

emission

247

7510

All-sky

atmospheric

window

204

35-187.912.5

8810

PROGRESS ARTICLE NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1580

Martin Wild • Doris Folini • Christoph Schar • Norman Loeb • Ellsworth G. Dutton •

Gert Konig-Langlo

Clim Dyn (2013) 40:3107–3134 DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8


11/42

0.6 +/- 17 Wm-2NATURE DOI:0.1038/NGEO1580

G. L. Stephens, J. Li, M. Wild, C. A. Clayson, N. Loeb4, S. Kato, T. L’Ecuyer , P. W. Stackhouse Jr,

M.Lebsock and T. Andrews

340.4

-99.9

-239.9

+0.6 Wm-2

+0.6 Wm-2


12/42

S z ü n e t e l a k l í m a v á l t o z á s ÖSSZEFÜGGÉS : Kétségtelen az emberi tevéke

Mika ános : KLÍMAVÁLTOZÁS 13, 2014. ÁPRILIS 25., PÉNTEK

"A m elegedés megtorpanását minden bizonnyal a déli félteke óceánjainak váratlanul feler södött h elny

Annual mean normalizd surface effective and greenhouse temperatures and CO concentrations


13/42

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−2.5

−2

−1.5

−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Years

N o r m a l i z e d t e m p e r a t u r e s

a n d C O 2 c o n c e n t r a t i o n s

Annual mean normalizd surface, effective and greenhouse temperatures, and CO2 concentrations

1948 − 2007, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

TS

TE = ( OLR / σ )

0.25

∆TG = TS − TE

CO2

Th i l i l d h i h l i f h 3 2− τ

10 / ( 1− τ

) i


14/42

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20001.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

Years

I R o p t i c a l d e p t h / H

2 O c o l u m n a m o u n t

Theoretical optical depth, τ , is the solution of the 3 + 2 e τ

= 10 / ( 1 + τ + e τ

) equation

Theoretical: 1.87

H2O precipitable centimeters

IR optical depth ( annual mean )

1948 − 2008 (61 year mean)

1959 − 2008 (50 year mean)

1948 − 1997 (50 year mean)

1973 − 2008 (36 year mean)

1948 − 1972 (25 year mean)

1977 − 2008 (32 year mean)

1948 − 1976 (29 year mean)

mean profile values


15/42

MAGYAR TUDOMÁNY : Vélemény Miskolczi Ferenc: Értekezés az üvegházhatásról c. kéziratáról

" Miskolczi Ferenc kéziratában bemutatott kiindulási feltevése szakmailag téves, elfogadhatatlan.Abból indulugyanis ki, hogy a Föld-légkör rendszerbe beérkező és onnan távozó energia egyenlő....."

" Miskolczi a természeti folyamatokon tesz erőszakot akkor, amikor energia-egyensúlyt feltételez egy olyanrendszerben, amelyik gyakorlatilag soha nincs egyensúlyban...."" Összefoglalva: megítélésem szerint a kézirat a súlyos szakmai tévedések, és az olvasókat félrevezető hivatkozási

csúsztatás miatt nem alkalmas az MT-ben történő közlésre....."

Budapest, 2013. 02.23.


16/42

CLEAR-SKY GREENHOUSE FACTORS


17/42

−5 0 5 10 15 200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Layer contribution to G(z) : ∆G(z) = G(z+∆z)−G(z), W/m2

A l t i t u d e z , k m

Global mean profiles of ∆G(z) : GT, G

1− G

4, G

R B(z): σt

4(z) τ = τ(z

T,z) : IR optical depth

Tr IR transmission

EU upward fluxE

D downward flux

OLR outgoing flux

εi anisotropy

zT top altitude

∆z layer thickness

G(z) = σt4(z) − OLR(z

T,z) = B(z)*(1−T

r(z

T,z)) − E

U(z

T,z) = Σ ∆G(z)

GR in Raval and Ramanathan, 1989: Nature, VOL 342, pp 759, Eqs. 1−2,

or GR in Kiehl and Ramanathan, 2006: Frontiers of Climate Modeling,

Cambridge University Press 2006.,pp 133,Eqs. 5.3−5.4, are incorrect

and inconsistent with the definitions of G1 − G

4 and the theoretical

expectation of GT ! Global average G

R shows 15 % error (overestimate)

compared to the definition of G1 or the theoretical GT published in

Miskolczi 2007:Időjárás,VOL 111, pp 14, Eqs. 18−19 and Eq. 28 !

GT = ∆(B(z)*(1−2/(1+τ+exp(−τ))) 128.54 W/m

2

G1 = ∆(B(z) − OLR(zT,z)) 128.42 W/m2

G2 = ∆(B(z)*(1−T

r(z

T,z) − E

U(z

T,z)) 128.42 W/m

2

G3 = ∆(E

D(z

T,z)/ε

i − E

U(z

T,z)) 128.42 W/m

2

G4 = ∆OLR(z,0) 128.36 W/m

2

GR = ∆B(z)*(1−T

r(z

T,z)) 148.71 W/m

2

dGR = G

1 − G

R−20.29 W/m

2

Water vapor column density and thermal structure


18/42

Water vapor column density and thermal structure

Logarithm of the H2O column density follows the shape of the temperature variations, r = 0.994

689 soundings, saturation pressure computed over water and ice

−4 −2 0 2 4 6 80

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

A l t i t u d e ,

k m

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Water vapor layer column density

200 220 240 260 280 3000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

A l t i t u d e ,

k m

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Layer mean temperature


19/42

RADIATIVE TRANSFER MODEL - G = SG - OLR =

GreenhoG = SG –

GN = G /

QU

What caglobal sc

of IR flux

What are

relations

global avdensity t

All-sky m

SG = 39

OLR = 23

GN ~ 0.

1761 TIGR2 Soundings, 40 pressure levels


20/42

180 200 220 240 260 280 300 3201000

100

10

Temperature, K

P r e s s u r e ,

h P a

1761 TIGR2 Soundings, 40 pressure levels

Cross−referenced profile # 60 TIGR2 # 1621 TIGR2000 # 2171


21/42

p

S/N ts h2o o3 Su Ed OLR St Eu tau

1621 266.6 0.5262 0.2546 286.7 200 213.8 78.48 135.3 1.295

2171 266.6 0.5274 0.3548 286.7 200.4 210.4 76.95 133.4 1.315

∆ 0 0.0012 0.1002 0.00043 0.4968 −3.403 −1.535 −1.868 0.01976

∆% 0 0.2281 39.36 0.00015 0.2485 −1.592 −1.956 −1.381 1.525

200 220 240 260 280 3001000

100

10

1

0.1

Temperature, K

P r e s

s u r e ,

h P a

226.71 226.71 23.285 23.285 K

−6 −5 −4 −3 −21000

100

10

1

0.1

log10

( H2O mmr, g/g )

P r e s

s u r e ,

h P a

0.2496 0.2516 0.5862 0.5854 g/kg

−7.5 −7 −6.5 −6 −5.5 −51000

100

10

1

0.1

P

r e s s u r e ,

h P a

2.779 2.607 3.899 3.212 mg/kg

−30 −20 −10 0 10 20 301000

100

10

1

0.1

P

r e s s u r e ,

h P a

∆H2O

∆O3


22/42

ABSORBED SURFACE RADIATION, AA, DOWNWARD EMITTASURFACE UPWARD FLUX, SU, AND UPWARD EMITTANC

E A i d d t f th th l t t d h

←TIGR PROFILES

← MARTIAN ATMOSPHERES

IR radiative structure of the atmosphere fro


23/42

100 200 300 400 500 600100

200

300

400

500

600

SU

, Wm−2

E D

/ A , W m − 2 r = 0.997

Atmospheric Kirchhoff rule

IR radiative structure of the atmosphere fro

382

100 200 300100

200

300

400

500

600

SU

O L R ( 2 +

τ A − A ) / 2 , W m

− 2

r = 0.959

Radiative e

300

400

500

600

382

Energy conservation rule

r = 0.968

R / 2 , W

m − 2

300

400

500

600Atmosph

r = 0.94

U , W m − 2

Observed empirical facts, TIGR archives, 475 global soundings


24/42

Ed = Aa, Su = Olr / f, Su = Olr / fc = Olr / ( 0.6 + 0.4 Ta ), Su = 2 Eu

100 200 300 400 500100

200

300

400

500

Ed, W/m2

A a ,

W / m 2

Aa = 1.042 Ed − 2.6 W/m2, r = 0.998

200 300 400 500

200

400

500

Su, W/m2

O l r / f , W / m 2

Olr / f = 0.993 Su + 6.1 W/m2, r = 0.946

200 300 400 500

200

400

500

Su, W/m2

O l r / f c ,

W / m 2

Olr / fc = 0.765 Su + 90.5 W/m

2, r = 0.976

200 300 400 500

200

400

500

Su, W/m2

2 E u ,

W / m 2

2 Eu = 0.9366 Su + 23.5 W/m2, r = 0.934


25/42

A D A E = 2

U U S E =

3

2U S OLR= U

OLRS

f

=

2 /(2 ) f Aτ = + −U OLR E = +

(1 exp( )) A U A A S τ = − −

1.867 Aτ =

Anisotropy in directional radiances


26/42

Global average TIGR 2 atmosphere

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Viewing angle, degree

R a

d i a n c e ,

W / ( m

2 s

r )

53.13o

81.7o

Limb angles SU EDi E

DS

TE

UA

A OLR

IPCC type no−feedback radiative forcing to N2, O

2, CH

4, CO

2, and H

2O perturbations


27/42

Reference global average clear−sky OLR : TIGR2 ( 1976 ) : 251.8 W/m2, NOAA R1 ( 1948 ) : 256.4 W/m

2

ln(1/8) ln(1/4) ln(1/2) ln( 1 ) ln(3/2) ln( 2 )−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

ln(GHG column amount perurbations)

∆ O L R ,

W / m 2

Recent GCMs do not observe the true radiative constraints from known physical principles

IPCC : ∆OLR = −3.53 * ln(c/co) = −0.747 W/m

2

REALITY

∆OLR = 3.02 W/m2

N2 6.23e+005 atm−cmSTP

O2

1.67e+005 atm−cmSTP

CH4

1.29 atm−cmSTP

CO2

263 atm−cmSTP

H2O 2.61 prcm


28/42

GLOBAL AVERAGE ATMOSPHERES

Interpretation of the effective temperature

The global average spectral clear and cloudy OLR and the effective temperature violate the Wien displacement law


29/42

The global average spectral clear and cloudy OLR and the effective temperature violate the Wien displacement law

Spectral flux densities are in W/m2/cm

−1

0 500 1000 1500

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Wavenumber, cm−1

S p e c t r a l f l u x d e n s

i t y

Clear

St

Eu

0 500 1000 1500

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Wavenumber, cm−1

S p e c t r a l O L R

Clear, ∆ν = 53 cm−1

, te = 258.1 K

St+E

u

B ν(t

e)

0 500 1000 15000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Wavenumber, cm−1

S p e c t r a l f l u x

d e n s i t y

Cloudy − cloud top at 2 km

St

c

Eu

c

0 500 1000 15000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Wavenumber, cm−1

S p e c t r a l O

L R

Cloudy, ∆ν = 39 cm−1

, te

c = 255.1 K

St

c+E

u

c

B ν(te

c

)


30/42

Planetary radiative equilibrium cloud cover at hC

FA = (1-βA ) OLR + βA OLRC

FE = (1-βE ) SU + βESUC

βA ( FA , hC ) = ( FA − OLR ) / ( OLRC ( hC ) − OL

E ( FE , h

C ) = ( FE − S U) / ( SUC ( h

C ) − S

U)

FA = (1 - αB )FE

min ( || βA (hC αB ) - βE(hC αB ) ||2 )

Radiative equilibrium cloud altitude and albedo


31/42

Radiative equilibrium cloud altitude and albedo

−

0.295

0.3

0.305

01

23

45

−10

−5

0

5

10

AlbedoAltitude, km

l o g 1 0

( ∆ β

)

−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

4

ISCCP−D2 198307−200806 global mean : 66.38 +/− 1.48 %


32/42

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005−4

−2

0

2

4

Years

M o

n t h l y m e a n c l o u d

a m o u n t a n o m a l i e s ,

%Theoretical global mean : 66.18 %

Planetary effective temperatures

E Ec

: atmospheric upward LW spectral emission from clear and cloudy areas


33/42

Eu, ν

, Eu, ν

: atmospheric upward LW spectral emission from clear and cloudy areas

St, ν

, St, ν

c : transmitted spectral flux density from the ground surface and cloud top

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Wavenumber cm−1

S p e c t r a

l f l u x d e n s i t y ,

W / m

2 / c m − 1

OLRA = (1 − β)(S

t + E

u) + β (S

t

c + E

u

c) = 238.9 W/m

2 cloud cover β = 0.66 t

e

a = (OLR

A/σ)

0.25 = 254.78 K

238.94 → OLR νA ← observed

72.962 → (1−β) St, ν

+ β St, ν

c

165.98 → (1−β) Eu, ν

+ β Eu, ν

c

238.94 → B ν(t

e

a) ← observed t

e

a = 254.8 K

238.94 → B ν(ta) ← NASA te = 254.8 K

341.98 → B ν(t

s

a) ← observed t

s

a = 278.7 K

341.97 → B ν(t

e) ← NASA t

e = 278.7 K

Observed global mean spectral greenhouse factor, GF ν

A

FE

FA

and FR

: total effective absorbed and reflected SW radiation in W m−2


34/42

F0

E , F

0

A, and F

0

R : total effective, absorbed, and reflected SW radiation in W m

2

SU

A , OLR

e

A, and GF

e

A : total effective surface upwad, outgoing, and greenhouse LW flux densities in W m

−2

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Wavenumber, cm−1

S p e c t r a l f l u x d e n s i t y ,

W m

− 2

c m − 1

GF ν

A GF

A = 103.04

F0, ν

EF

0

E = 341.97

F0, ν

AF

0

A = 238.94

F0, νR F

0R = 103.03

SU, ν

AS

U

A = 341.98

OLRe, ν

AOLR

e

A = 238.94

GFe, νA

GFeA

= 103.04


35/42


36/42


37/42


38/42

4

Albedo : 0.30 Cloud cover : 0.66 Cloud top altitude : 1.92 km w ν : Wien constant


39/42

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5−3

−2

−1

0

1

2

3OBSERVED

log10

( Wavenumber, cm−1

)

l o g 1 0

( S p e c t r a l f l u x

d e n s i t y ,

W m

− 2

c m

− 1 )

H2O triple point at :

535.66 cm−1

273.16 K = νmax

w ν

W m−2 K

E0 63.18E+6

tSUN 5778

S0 1368 t0 394.1S

E 342tE 278.7

SA 239

tA 254.8

SR 103

tR 206.5

SA

342OLR

A 239

GFA 103

The dynamics of t


40/42

H2O

The dynamics of tdepend on the dynamradiation and the spacatmospheric humidity

of the IR optical thicstochastic. The instanare governed by the tuthe air and the globbution of the thermal

general (atmospheric.According to the simple-minded or ‘classic’ view of

the greenhouse effect the global average greenhousetemperature change may be estimated by the directapplication of the Beer-Lambert law moderated bylocal or regional scale weather phenomena (R.Pierrehumbert, A. Lacis, R. Spencer, R. Lindzen, A. P.Smith, H. deBruin, J. Abraham et al., J. Hansen et

al.,and many others)*. This is not true. .

.The greenhouse effect is a global scaleradiative phenomenon and can not be

d iscu ssed w i t h o u t t h e exp l i c i tquantitative understanding of the globalcharacteristics of the IR atmospheric

A CO2 ÜVEGHÁZHATÁSÁN ALAPULÓ GLOBÁLIS FELMEL

HIPOTÉZISE TUDOMÁNYTALAN SZEMFÉNYVESZTÉ


41/42

HIPOTÉZISE TUDOMÁNYTALAN SZEMFÉNYVESZTÉ

JÓZAN ENERGIAPOLITIKÁNAK A VÁRHATÓ ENERGIAIGÉNY

RENDELKEZÉSRE ÁLLÓ ENERGIAFORRÁSOK KORRE

FELMÉRÉSÉN KELL ALAPULNIA

bu

h2o


42/42

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 160

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

P o w

e r

Period(Years/Cycle)

h2o

ed

olr

st

eu

tau

miskolczi-2015 greenhouse effect and energetics

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