mission 2020: roadmap for rapid decarbonisation
TRANSCRIPT
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J o h a n R o c k s t r ö mStockholm Resilience Centre14 November, COP23
Ro a d m a p fo r ra p i d d e c a r b o n i s a t i o nTranslating the Paris Agreement in to action
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Translating the Paris Agreement into action
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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Halving emissions every decade is
consistent with
Paris Agreement
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Pink: medium 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with 50–66% chance; orange: likely 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with >66% chance; blue: 1.5 °C scenarios—limiting warming in 2100 to below 1.5 °C with >50%
chance.
Emissions profiles consistent with 1.5C (dark blue)2C (orange and pink) Rogelj et al. NatureCC 2015
Three years to safeguard our climateFigueres et al Nature Climate Change 2017
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8
37 billion
tonnes
In 2017, global
carbon dioxide
emissions from
fossil fuels and
industry will reach
around 37bn
tonnes of carbon
dioxide. Total emissions from all
sources: approx 41GtCO2Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017
2% growth
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The land and ocean absorb
around half the emissions
Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017
8
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… but atmospheric
concentrations continue to rise8
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8Proposing Decadal Pathways. Globally, halving emissions every decade is consistent with the Paris Agreement goal to hold rise to “well below 2°C”.
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhuber, H.J., 2017. “A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.” Science (80-. ), 355, 1269–1271.
Red line: Carbon budget following halving circa: 550GtCO2 to 2060. Grey area: Carbon budget 750GtCO2
to 2060.
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We are already on the right trajectoryRenewables: Share of primary energy: doubling every 5-6 years
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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We are already on the right trajectoryRenewables: Share of primary energy
If doubling pace continues, primary energy will be 100% renewable before 2050
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade
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Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade
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Decadal roadmap
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
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J o h a n R o c k s t r ö mStockholm Resilience Centre14 November, COP23
Ro a d m a p fo r ra p i d d e c a r b o n i s a t i o nTranslating the Paris Agreement in to action
![Page 21: Mission 2020: Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051521/5a65bf397f8b9a92368b4beb/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)