The Center for the Long View

Journey event moderation and methodologies

2017

Organizations struggle to manage an

increasingly uncertainworld

Gurus and forecasting won’t do the trick

Scenario Designcombines objectivity

with intuition

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We help our clients to take action in spite of

uncertainty

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Approach

World-class qualitative

scenario design

Tools

Cutting-edge scenario

design tools

Knowledge

Holistic trend research

Our unique view on the future is part of our genes

Deloitte 2017

Approach

World-class qualitative

scenario design

Tools

Cutting-edge scenario

design tools

Knowledge

Holistic trend research

We build on 25 years of excellence in scenario design

The scenario development process

Scenario Design aims to perceive critical drivers of the future, to make sense of them, and to take appropriate action

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Focal Question

Driving Forces

2

Critical Uncertainties

3

Scenario Frameworks

4

Scenario Stories

5

Implications & Options

6

Indicators & Signposts

7

1

Perceive

Determine what is the real question at hand and what higher-level questions you must answer first to understand it. Identify the current organizational assumptions that may help or hinder this understanding.

Analyse

Identify and prioritize the forces that will have the most impact on your focal question, many of which you may not have considered before. Challenge the conventional wisdom of the analysts and the assumptions embedded in the organization. Learn what you do not know.

Structure

Create a framework for making sense of and communicating the various directions in which the world, your sector, and the topic at hand may go. Begin to define how it will feel to live in these various contexts.

Impress

Put yourself in each scenario and ask what would it mean to operate in this environment if this were actually the future. What would the industry look like, what needs would have to be met, what new capabilities might emerge? Then ask how you might respond in any or all of the scenarios and prioritize these options.

Create a list of issues to track and data to gather – related to both your industry and the surrounding world that shapes it –and monitor these on an ongoing basis. Develop a point-of-view on which direction the future may be heading and adjust strategy accordingly.

Procedural documentation

Knowledge recursion

Rule orientation

Argumentative hedging

Subject proximity

Triangulation

Each step of the scenario design process is documented and can be reproduced

All results are based on carefully selected experts and/ or artificial intelligence knowledge to assure highest objectivity

The scenario design process follows a proven, rule based structure based on the basic work of futurist Hermann Kahn

All scenarios are plausible due to fact-based reasoning and expert-validated associations

All subject-matter experts proofed high topic relevancy either due to relevant knowledge or necessary inspirational input

Each result of the scenario design process is cross-checkedby crowd-wisdom based on NLP-analytics (CLV Deep View)

Objectivity

Reliability

Validity

We follow scientific guidelines to assure objective, reliable and valid scenarios

Scientific criteria Our guidelines

Source: Kahn (1962); Mayering (2002); Hammersley (2007)Deloitte 2017

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Approach

World-class qualitative

scenario design

Tools

Cutting-edge scenario

design tools

Knowledge

Holistic trend research

We use cutting-edge tools to deliver superior scenarios

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CLV Deep View#Artificial intelligence

CLV Bridge#Digital collaboration

CLV Studio#Impactful scenario telling

Perceive Analyze Structure Impress

CLV Retina#Monitoring the future

Domestic political tension

Donald Trump related

Impact on UK trade

Legal ramifications

Industry related impact

Immigration debate

Poll outcome discussion

Potential impact in Ireland

Economical impact

Implications for global stability

Example: Brexit, 16 June 2016 Top 10 clusters Perceive &

analyze

CLV Deep View screenshot [16/06/16 – search term: „Brexit“; looking back 30 days; N = 10.000]

CLV Deep ViewA.I. based trend sensing and analysis machine

• Scans all internet news, patent data and/ or user content

• Uses an automated cluster algorithm

• Builds associative topic networks

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Information advantage: Scenarios are only as useful as the data they are based on. CLV Deep View scans all news publications on the market to not miss any piece of useful information.

Scientific method: The system is based on a proven, open source cluster algorithm to ensure reliable results.

Highest objectivity: Traditional scenarios potentially have a built in “tendency” based on the character, mood or preference of the scenarists. The A.I. behind CLV Deep View is not affected by such biases.

All users contribute real-time

Transparent decision making

Organic interface for easy drag &

drop

Any device, any place, any time

CLV Bridge highlights

CLV BridgeDigital Scenario Design

• Scenario development takes place in the digital space

• System enhances collaborative reasoning

• Easy access to our world-wide expert network

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Comprehensive insights: The scenario design process is limited by the boundaries of the physical world. The CLV Bridge provides the virtual space to interview and collaborate with hundreds of experts at the same time.

Complete transparency: The acceptance of scenarios highly depends on the ability to consider all participants’ input carefully. The CLV Bridge makes all inputs transparent at any time and nothing gets lost because of bad handwriting.

Ultra fast! Some questions need extra quick answers. In the digital world there is no need for booking or traveling. We can start right now!

Analyze & structure

Structure & impressCLV Studio

Visual Scenario Design

• Scenarios narratives and central facts in video format

• Compact, viral, impactful

• Individual design language, tone of voice and sentiment

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Convincing messages: Information is only as good as its presentation. Most valuable insights, pieces of knowledge and facts are hidden behind complicated excel sheets or confusing slides. The CLV Studio makes sure, that all hard-earned key messages get the proper attention.

Creativity meets standardization: We are a highly experienced team, and produce impactful videos in no time – to make sure that you are positively surprised.

Inspiring results: Whatever the message might be – CLV Studio productions help inspire the audience to empathize and take action.

Click for Brexit video example

Click for Blockchain video example

Actual CLV Studio video footage screenshots

CLV Retina covered eventsMonitorCLV Retina

Automated monitoring

• Drivers of the future get monitored in real-time

• System indicates the level of realization for each scenario

• Intuitive dashboard and visualization

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Continuous information: Scenario Design does not stop after providing possible futures; instead we keep you updated which of the future scenarios actually becomes true

Automated outputs: Traditional monitoring is time consuming and often gets neglected due to scarce resources. The CLV Retina systems - onces installed - works without manual input

Accurate results: Manual driver research is error-prone. CLV Retina scans all selected internet resources without getting tired at any time. And: The machine does not overlook a single piece of information

Social events

Political events

Economical events

Environmental events

Technological events

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Approach

World-class qualitative

scenario design

Tools

Cutting-edge scenario

design tools

Knowledge

Holistic trend research

We are experienced trend scouts

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…. megatrends which

are universal trends

affecting multiple aspects

of our world…

…resulting in complex,

overlapping implications

and stories of our future.

Drivers intersect, collide,

and catalyze the creation

of…

CLV Research

Continuous research on ongoing developments and a database of mega trends and drivers enables us to holistically understand customer challenges

Additive Manufacturing

Artificial Intelligence

Augmented Reality

AutomationAdvances in

BiotechnologyBlockchainSystems

Climate Change

Cloud Technology

Competition for Talent

Concentration of Wealth

Crowd-sourcing

Data Monetization

DigitizationDemand for

Customization

DIYMovement

Empowered Women

Environmental Awareness

Focus on Transparency

Geospatial Technology

GlobalizationIndustry

Consolidation

Internetof Things

Knowledge Worker

Next-Gen Workforce

Partnership Models

Political Fragmentation

Mass Migration

Regulatory Landscape

Resource Price Volatility

Resource Scarcity

Sharing Economy

SocialMedia

SocialUnrest

Terrorist Organizations

Urbanization

Social Environmental Economic PoliticalTechnological

CLV ResearchDrivers

The future is not predictable but we can identify crucial influencing factors. Identifying these driving forces is central for the CLV research.

Society

Politics

Economy

Technology

Environment

5

1

9

3

6

2

8

7

410

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CLV Research Megatrends

We have identified 10 megatrends to better understand the business world and its future.

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1

4

3

2

5

Empowermentthe growth and re-invigoration of ideas and self-worth

Polarizationthe rise of divisiveness and divergence

Hyperconnectivitythe emphasis on interconnectedness and collective behavior

Displacementthe movement of people, ideas, and challenges across the globe

6

9

8

7

Erosion of Governancethe decline of the traditional world order

Blurring Boundariesthe emergence of business ecosystems across traditional silos

Dematerializationthe shift in the value structure from physical to intellectual

Agingthe changes in values, cultures, and priorities across generations

Scarcitythe unsustainable consumption of our natural resources

10

Disengagementthe evolution of ways in which we communicate and interact

Society

Politics

Economy

Technology

Environment

5

1

9

3

6

2

8

7

410

CLV Research Implications

Megatrends help to form stories and implications from the chaos of social, technological, economical, environmental and political developments.

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Society

Politics

Economy

Technology

Environment

5

1

9

3

6

2

8

7

410

1

4

3

2

5

Empowerment• Rise of the individual• Collaborative consumption• Triple bottom line• New markets• Unconventional regimes

S

T

E

E

P

Polarization• Rise of ideology• Bursting digital bubble• Politicism of science• Skillset divide• Institutionalized radicalism

S

T

E

E

P

Hyperconnectivity• Transparent lives• Integrated systems• Conflict minerals• Hyper-sensitive markets• Global regimes

S

T

E

E

P

Displacement• Mass migration• Infrastructure shift• Ecological pressure• Global supply chains• Allocation conflicts

S

T

E

E

P

6

9

8

7

Erosion of Governance• Direct democracy• Decentralization• Resource disputes• Free markets• Alternative governments

S

T

E

E

P

Blurring Boundaries• Melting pots• Codevelopment• Mass epidemics• Shadow markets• Nation state 2.0

S

T

E

E

P

Dematerialization• Knowledge society• Digitization• Scientification of agriculture• Post-industrialism• Shifting power bases

S

T

E

E

P

Aging• Intra-generational fairness• Digital rift• Resource footprint• Silver agers• Gerontocracy

S

T

E

E

P

Scarcity• Middle class angst• Innovation• Sustainability• Qualitative growth• Wealth distribution

S

T

E

E

P

10

Disengagement• Interpersonal divergence• Digital personification• NIMBY• Fragmented workforce• Political defiance

S

T

E

E

P

Can’t wait to meet you

Concept

• A dedicated team of expert scenario practitioners with

extensive experience

• Proprietary cutting-edge tools, allowing us to sense

trends objectively

• Proven processes to run scenario exercises efficiently

and transparently

Characteristics

• Fast, interactive, relevant, scalable

• Differentiated content and an engaging approach

• Designed for an immersive and exploratory experience

References

• 25 years of experience with world leading organizations

from the private, government and NGO sectors

• Recently published projects include exercises on Air

Cargo, Brexit, Blockchain, Automotive Value Chain

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Thank youTake the step, please contact

Dr. Florian KleinCenter for the Long Viewwww.deloitte.com/de/clvfklein@deloitte.de

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Air Cargo example

Key Issue

The air freight segment is a core component of the logistics world, but is it going to stay that way? Imagine you are a global air freight player required to make long-term decisions.

Key questions include:

• What goods will you transport in 15 years?

• Which routes will you fly?

• Which planes will you use?

• What freight terminals should you build?

• What will be important to your clients?

Scenario Design

Competitive Pressure

Performance of World Economy

eCommerce Economy

• Crude oil price remains low• Rapid cargo delivery, world-wide• Short-distance logistics and

integrators take market share• Network size, alliances and

efficiency are key to survival

Booming Emerging Regions

• Economic development in emerging regions (e.g., India)

• Stable, stagnating Europe• Structurally low oil price• Beachhead hubs in hot spots• Air cargo hunting for M&A

targets in new markets

Paralysing Regional Conflicts

• Globalization of world economy has past peak

• Resurgence of protectionism and a conflictive, fragmented world

• Oil price has gone up again• Established air cargo players

specialize in local needs• Air freight sector has seen a

renewal

Globalization in Retreat

• Continued recession• Oil price has gone up again• Return of trade barriers

following collapse of TTIP talks• Customers prefer local products

due to environmentalism and patriotism

• Fewer air cargo business, diversification is only alternative

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Brexit example

Key Issue

It’s 2016. The unthinkable has happened – the UK is no longer part of the European Union. In the years to come, the German economy’s market conditions could change fundamentally.

Key questions include:

• What form will the relationship with the UK take?

• How will the EU develop?

• What opportunities and challenges will emerge for German companies from this new setting?

Scenario Design

Formal market relationship with the UK

Future of the EU

Back to Square One

• Free movement of goods• Euro abolished; strong currency

competition• Stricter and more varied product

standards• Challenges in migration & hiring

foreign specialists• Trade rules driven by largest

economic blocs (i.e. US & China)

The Shattered Dream

• Reintroduction of custom duties with UK as a result of Brexit

• Focus on bilateral agreements with strongest economic blocs

• Elimination of free movement of workers

• Abolishment of the Euro• Higher transaction costs

European Federation

• Trade agreement negotiations with UK concluded (e.g., TTIP)

• Increasing purchasing power between EU member states

• Focus on closer political integration and market structural reform

• Companies move production sites from UK to Continental Europe

Fortress Europe

• UK exits the EU and loses significance on the continent

• Transfers among countries increase significantly

• Subsidies within EU are extended

• Imports from UK rise in cost• Export nations suffer from

protectionist custom duties

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Blockchainexample

Key Issue

The blockchain is a secure digital record of transactions – or in other words: the internet transmits information. The blockchaintransfers ownership. It’s going to change the world.

Key questions include:

• Will the blockchain revolutionize the banking industry?

• How will transactions evolve as a result of the technology?

• How will privacy be protected against hackers?

• Will users trust the blockchain?

Scenario Design

Trust in traditional system

Technical limits

Survival of the Biggest

• Giant players represent competence, stability, and access to the blockchain

• Processes (e.g., election, land registration) are made easier, more efficient, and decentralized

• Removal of middle-man• No fundamental change in the

world

Blockcracy

• Blockchain technology has spurred the dawn of a new age

• Traditional systems move successfully to public blockchain

• New players enter the global market

• World is more digital, interconnected and technical

Niche Evolution

• Technical limitations overtake widespread potential of blockchain

• Established institutions realize demand for change by users

• Trust in traditional institutions returns

• Niche industries use blockchainto dominate key parts of value chain and bring innovation to emerging markets

One-eyed in the Kingdom of the Blind

• Blockchain is considered a failure• Massive problems with security

and speed which could not keep up with demand

• Absence in technological standards

• Rise in cyber and digital crime (e.g., hacker attacks)

• Loss of confidence in established systems

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