mission for the french government on automotive industry ...€¦ · of france and europe in the...
TRANSCRIPT
14 FEBRUARY 2019
Xavier Mosquet – Patrick Pelata
Mission for the French Government on Automotive Industry & Mobility
1
Purpose ofour Mission
"Propose measures to reinforce the
attractiveness and competitiveness
of France and Europe in the future
of Automotive and Mobility"
2
3 major transformations at the core of our Mission
Shift to
electrification
Rise of
autonomous driving
Development
of mobility services
3
With the most advanced regulations on CO2 emissions, Europe is a key market for electromobility
Source: BCG, ICCT Note: in the EU, objective set at 147g/km for light commercial vehicles in 2021 (125g/km in 2025 and 101.5g/km in 2030)
Shift to electrification
100
180
130
158161
2015 2018
117
95
119
2021
81
97
2025
59
2030
EU US China
China
3-4% in 2020
California
3-4% in 2020
8-9% in 2025
CO₂ / km targets(cars, NEDC)
NEV sales targets(cars)
4
BEVs & PHEVs sales expected to grow strongly in Europe, e.g. plan is to increase by 55%/year in France by 2022
140
3039
50
1375
2018 2019
100
165
2020
135
115
2021 2022
5380
175
250
305
+55%
BEV
PHEV
2% 3% 7% 10% 12%
Share of
total vehicle sales (passenger & light
commercial vehicles)
CAGR
Forecast BEV & PHEV sales in France
(passenger cars & light commercial vehicles)
Shift to electrification
More than 10% penetration from 2021
Source: PFA Note: assumed total market equals to 2.55M vehicles from 2019
5
Strong & stable incentives key to trigger market growth, France with one of the first & highest bonus in Europe
Shift to electrification
Stuttgart
Free road tolls
Access to
dedicated lanes
Registration quota
exemptions
Free public car
parks
(bus lanes)
London
(Beijing & Shanghai)
BEV shares in
2018 sales
(passenger cars)
31% 5.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%
National financial
incentives
3.3%⁷
California
1.4⁸%
No VAT¹ &
purchase tax
No purchase
tax²€6 000 €4 000³
Max €6 500⁴ &
no purchase tax⁶€6 500⁵€4 000 Max €6 500⁴
Incentives
introduction date2001 2010 2008 20092016 200920142011
Paris
Source: BCG Note: 1. 25% 2. 10-30% 3. Vehicles <60k€ 4. Depending on range 5. Tax credits 6. 3% 7. 10-15% in Beijing & Shanghai 8. Passenger cars + trucks, ~10% in 30 Californian cities
6
Network of charging infrastructure developing in Europe
Source: EAFO, IEA 1. Publicly Available Charging Points
Shift to electrification
Multiplication by 4 expected
to reach 100k units in 2022
27
37
25
19
12
# of PACP1
(K units)
# of plug-in vehicles per charg. point ~4 ~6 ~8 ~9 ~20
Publicly available charging points Charging at home & at work, key for end users
~80% of owners charging at home
Charging at work developing
180k private charging points already
installed (at home & at work)
7
Global battery market for mobility to reach €45bn by 2027
Shift to electrification
Significant opportunities along value-chain for France & Europe… … and for foreign players
Raw
materials Current
collector
Conductive
materialsSeparator Binders
Cell Recycling…
Chemistry
Electrolyte
Multiple projects announced in Europe recently
Source: BCG
8
France highly attractive for foreign investments in mobility & batteries
Large and growing market
Highly-skilled talents
Network of suppliers
Investment support
Key attractiveness criteria France well positioned
Strong outlook in BEV/PHEV
Major OEMs & Suppliers
World-class engineers & technicians ; productive
manufacturing workforce
New Labor Law to simplify social dialogue
Competitive incentives (e.g. CIR¹)
Central geographic location in Europe
Source: BCG 1. Research tax credit
Shift to electrification
9
France committed to support transformation
Shift to electrification
Consistent Financial Incentives since 2008 & multiannual trajectory up to 2022, to
be provided in the next few months
Plan to develop non-financial incentives for EV drivers – e.g. reserved parking, lane
Proactive strategy to foster expansion of EV charging points at home, at work and in
the streets
Communication campaign on EV benefits, including unified internet portal
Major European project for building battery cells industry (€700m investment) and
fostering recycling
Support to foreign battery projects, with custom recruiting & training
10
3 major transformations at the core of our Mission
Shift to
electrification
Rise of
autonomous driving
Development
of mobility services
11
Level 5
Level 4
Level 3
Level 2
Highways,
Valet Parking…
% of Metropolitan
Areas
Everywhere
Two different paths towards autonomous vehicles
Autonomous vehicle
12
Autonomous vehicles (L4/5) could reach 1 to 3m units WW by 2025, with Europe a key market
Autonomous vehicle
China Japan EU USAWW
12
5
15 20
15%
25
5%
300
10%
20%
1
44
9
2515
10%
30
15%
20
5%
0
20%
2
66
14
15 20 25 300
10%
5%
15%
20%
2
10
19
15 20 25 30
4
78
15 3020
15%
5%
025
10%
20%
13
4
Autonomous mobility veh.
as a % of vehicles sold
High end of projections Low end of projections
Source: BCG
0
5%
10%
15%
20%
13
Many layers of hardware and software required to develop Autonomous Vehicles
Complex and evolving technology
Autonomous vehicle
AV software & hardware stack
Recognition of the driving scene
Shape and motion recognition
Driving scene modelling
& probabilistic evolution
prediction
Decision-making
Cyberse
curity
AI in
tellig
ent
pro
cess
or
CameraLidar Radar GPSInertial
position
HD
wheel
sensor
Location & possible
itineraries
Merge
HD
map
Connectiv
ity
Drive4U unveiled with Valeo
cameras, radars, laser
scanners, ultrasonic sensors, …
European players are well placed on
the sensor layer, e.g.
US players have an edge on the
planning and decision-making layers
• Waymo as a pioneer & leader
• Uber, GM Cruise, Aptiv, Argo AI, Aurora
also positioned
Daimler also a pioneer, BMW strongly
investing
China: Baidu “open” platform
Self-driving shuttle unveiled
with Bosch radars, ultrasonic
sensors, localization SW, … Dec. 2018
Oct. 2018
14
Autonomous vehicle
An outstanding leader
3 key drivers: favorable regulation, a leading IA player, a wealth of funding
AV fleets tested
# of KMs driven
Experimentation
conditions
Comments
# of KMs simulated
1st approval
delivered by
California for
driverless tests with
passengers in 2018
≈ 600
> 20 M
> 10 B
Driverless on
open roads with
passengersopen roads with wide perimeter
~100 ~75~200
~5M
Progressive test
resumption following
on fatal accident in
Arizona in March 2018
Launch with Lyft of a
robo-taxi service in
Las Vegas in January
2018
N/A N/A
Launch of a robo-taxi
service in San
Francisco (for its
employees) in 2017
N/AN/A N/A
N/A
N/A
1st pioneer, also with
trucks & platooning.
Commercial service
planned in 2019 in San
Jose
N/A
…stimulating a whole industry
Source: BCG
15
Europe can leverage its Automotive players, Tech startups and AI skills
Autonomous vehicle Non-exhaustive
Strong automotive players Tech SMEs and startups World-class research in AI
Major OEMs
Tier 1 suppliers
Self-driving shuttle makers Sensors: Prophesee, Arcure, Global
Sensing Technologies, Terra 3D, …
Positioning: Geoflex, AI4Geo,
Geodata diffusion, Sysnav, M3S
Systems, F4Maps, …
Driving simulation: AV Simulation,
ESI, MSC Software, …
Cybersecurity: Wavestone,
Quarslab, Prove&Run, Ygoko, …
Multicore intelligent processor:
Kalray, …
1
Safran et MTU Aero Engines s’unissent
pour le moteur du futur avion de combat européen
Gennevilliers (France), le 6 février 2019
En présence de la Ministre française des Armées, Florence Parly, et de la Ministre allemande de
la Défense, Ursula von der Leyen, Safran et MTU Aero Engines ont annoncé officiellement
aujourd'hui la création d’un partenariat pour mener conjointement les activités de développement,
de production et de services du nouveau moteur qui propulsera l’avion de combat européen de
nouvelle génération. Ce dernier fait partie du projet de système de combat aérien futur (SCAF)
franco-allemand. L'avion entrera en service d'ici 2040 pour succéder à la génération actuelle
d'avions de combat Eurofighter et Rafale.
Les deux partenaires s’engagent à assurer une gestion solide et efficace du programme et à
proposer aux Forces armées leur expérience démontrée dans le domaine militaire, ainsi que des
technologies à l’état-de-l’art et une architecture de moteur innovante.
Dans le cadre de ce partenariat, Safran Aircraft Engines aura la responsabilité d’ensemble de la
conception et de l’intégration du moteur et MTU Aero Engines sera leader pour les services. MTU
Aero Engines sera responsable des compresseurs basse et haute pression et de la turbine basse
pression, tandis que Safran sera responsable de la chambre de combustion, de la turbine haute
pression et de la post-combustion. De son côté, la société commune Aerospace Embedded
Solutions (AES)1 développera le calculateur et des logiciels de contrôle des moteurs, sous la
responsabilité de l'intégrateur moteur Safran Aircraft Engines. Cette répartition industrielle est
basée sur un équilibre des financements entre la France et l’Allemagne.
« A travers cette collaboration qui représente une étape majeure, nous démontrons que Safran
souhaite jouer un rôle de premier plan dans la construction de l’Europe de la défense », a déclaré
Philippe Petitcolin, Directeur Général de Safran. « En nous associant avec MTU Aero Engines,
nous mettons en commun nos domaines d’expertise respectifs, tout en générant des synergies
industrielles fortes et en encourageant l’innovation », a ajouté Olivier Andriès, Président de Safran
Aircraft Engines. « Safran a démontré toute sa capacité à développer, produire et soutenir
pleinement des moteurs d’avions militaires au cours des six dernières décennies. »
« Ce programme représente un jalon important pour la souveraineté européenne en matière de
technologie de moteur militaire », a déclaré Reiner Winkler, Directeur Général de MTU Aero
Engines. « Safran Aircraft Engines et MTU Aero Engines sont des partenaires naturels dans le
cadre de ce projet franco-allemand. Les deux sociétés disposent chacune d’une expérience
unique dans le développement de moteurs d’avions de combat et s’appuient sur une expérience
commune à travers des partenariats datant de plus de 50 ans. » Michael Schreyögg, membre du
comité exécutif de MTU Aero Engines ajoute : « Aux côtés de Safran, et sur la base de notre
savoir-faire technologique, nous sommes pleinement convaincus de notre capacité à fournir un
système de propulsion à l’état-de-l’art. La clé du succès repose sur le lancement d’un programme
technologique et de démonstration d’ici la mi-année. »
1 Aerospace Embedded Solutions GmbH (AES) est une société commune entre Safran Electronics and
Defense and MTU Aero Engines.
16
France committed to support transformation
Autonomous vehicle
Ambitious target: make France the leading European country for AVs
Deployment of a full-scale on-demand autonomous transport services
by 2021
Fostering the creation of a common European database on driving
scenarios
Support to industry R&D in key areas such as algorithm certification
Framework for AV testing (PACTE) and for establishing permanent
transport services from 2020 (Mobility Act)
17
3 major transformations at the core of our Mission
Shift to
electrification
Rise of
autonomous driving
Development
of mobility services
18
Shared mobility to gain broader adoption over time
Development of mobility services
As one of the most advanced countries in mass transit,
France expected to be a key playground for shared mobility
• On demand mobility grows because there was a
customer need for that
• Congestion is high and grows: TomTom
congestion index from 31% in 2008 to 38% in
2016 for Paris. NYC average speed -18% in 4
years (Uber, Lyft and e-commerce delivery)
• Autonomous cars could make it worse
• Cities will regulate AV fleets and push towards
Shared Autonomous Vehicles and Public
Transport and multi-modality, MaaS, etc
… and will increase over time
Share of on-road passenger miles WW (%)
20352017 2025
100%
2030
100%100%100%
On-demand (from 2025 on: mainly self-driving)
Personal car
Shared Mobility is needed …
3% 4% 9%18%
Source: BCG
19
Pure players and OEMs building positions, which will support market development and prepare AV fleets
Development of mobility services Non-exhaustive
Car-
sharing
Ride-
hailing
MaaS
Parking
services
Metropolis are
entering the game
Collaboration with
them on
multi-modality,
regulations,
planning,
simulations, MaaS
will become
essential
Pure
players
Ride-
sharing
Source: BCG