missouri economic update what to expect in 2014 dr. david mitchell, director bureau of economic...
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Missouri Economic UpdateWhat to Expect in 2014
Dr. David Mitchell, DirectorBureau of Economic Research
Economic Headwinds
• ACA• Government Shutdown/Debt• Slow growth in Europe• Declining Labor Force (Demographics/Govt.
Policies)• Result—anemic economic growth and little to
no employment growth
Real GDP (Millions of 2009$)
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Quarter to Quarter Change in Real GDP
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GDP Consumption Investment Government Exports Imports0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2.97 1.6
22.9
0.6
14.1
17.1
7.7 6.4
33.9
1.6
5.53
24.5
Percentage Change in GDP Components One Year Into Recovery
2009-10 1982-83
Quarter to Quarter Change in Real GDP
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
4.23.8
2.7
2.2
US Employment (Household Survey)
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US Employment (Establishment Survey)
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US Unemployment Rate
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US Labor Force
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
US Labor Force
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
1.33%
0.14%
Labor Force Participation Rate
58
60
62
64
66
68
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Employment-Population Ratio
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
58.7%
Index of Housing Prices (1980-2013)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Missouri Housing Price Index (1980:1 = 100)United States Housing Price Index (1980:1 = 100)
272
323
Index of Real Housing Prices (1980-2013)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Missouri United States
98
116
157
124
US and Missouri Compared(Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2009 to 2011)
FIRE
Man Go
v
Health/Ed
Retail
Info
PST
Wholesale
Admin/Waste
Construction
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Missouri US
US and Missouri Compared(Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2010 to 2011)
FIRE
Man Go
v
Health/Ed
Retail
Info
PST
Wholesale
Admin/Waste
Construction
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Missouri US
Missouri Business LoansThds of 2012:2 SA dollars
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
13,000,000
14,000,000
15,000,000
16,000,000
17,000,000
18,000,000
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Missouri Real Estate LoansThds of 2012:2 SA dollars
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
65,000,000
70,000,000
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Missouri Real Personal Income(2012:2 Constant $ SAAR)
210,000
215,000
220,000
225,000
230,000
235,000
240,000
245,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Missouri Real Personal Income(2012:2 Constant $ SAAR)
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Missouri Real Personal Income(2012:2 Constant $ SAAR and CAGR Trends)
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
2.9%1.7%
2%
Growth in Real Personal Income(Year over Year)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US Missouri
1.4%
Missouri Real Median Household Income
40,000
44,000
48,000
52,000
56,000
60,000
64,000
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2011 to 2013)
Less than zero
$0 to $10
$10 to $25
$25 to $50
$50 or more
Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2007Q4 to 2013)
Less than -$100
-$100 to -$50
-$50 to $0
$0 to $50
Greater than $50
City Level Housing Prices(1995:1 =100; 1995 constant $)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
St. Louis SpringfieldJoplin Kansas City
96
105
109
Missouri Unemployment Rate
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Peak 9.7Current 6.9
Missouri-US Unemployment Rate Difference
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-0.9
Major City Unemployment Rates
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Kansas City St. Louis
KC 6.6STL 6.7
Other Unemployment Rates
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Minor MSAs Rural
5.5
6.9
Current County Unemployment RateJuly 2013
Less than 5
5 to 6
6 to 7
7 to 8
greater than 8
Labor Force in Missouri
2,500,000
2,600,000
2,700,000
2,800,000
2,900,000
3,000,000
3,100,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Labor Force in Missouri
2,500,000
2,600,000
2,700,000
2,800,000
2,900,000
3,000,000
3,100,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1.6%
0.6%-0.9%
Year to Year Change in Missouri Labor Force
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,00024,558
12,594
4,135
21,564
-21,454
-6,547
-34,042
Missouri Employment • Peak of
2,914,418 Dec. 2006
• Trough of 2,755,850 Dec. 2009
• 2012 Avg 2,669,443
• 2013 Avg 2,695,072
• Current 2,701,760
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
2013 = March 1998
Index of Missouri and US Employment(Jan 2000 = 100)
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Missouri US
Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Percent Change in County Employment September 2011 to July 2013
less than -4
-4 to -2
-2 to 0
0 to 2
greater than 2
Thank you!Questions?