mit icat capacity constraints and the dynamics of ... · range restrictions operation type...

MIT ICATMIT ICAT Capacity Constraints and the

Dynamics of Transition in the US Air Transportation

Prof. R. John Hansman

Alexandra Mozdzanowska, Philippe Bonnefoy

MIT Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

[email protected]

MIT ICATMIT ICAT

Simple Model of NAS Capability Transition Dynamics

Demand

System Capability

System Behavior

Selected Actions

Stakeholder Awareness

Awareness BuildingProcess

Change Process

Catalytic Event

Public Awareness

Implementation Process

Historically Transition Driven by Catalytic Accidents

What is Capacity Analogue? Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska

Passenger Traffic by Region

Data source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers (through 2005)

Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers by Region

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

RPK

(bill

ion)

North America

Europe

Asia andPacificLatin America& CaribbeanMiddle East

Africa

Trends in Aircraft Size

Data source: Form 41 Traffic data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics (US carriers)

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Source: CAA statistical handbook of aviation, FAA statistical handbook of aviation, BTS

WWII NEPA Dereg

U.S. Public Use Airports

Public use airports decreasing at ~ 22 a yearCertificated airports decreasing at ~5 a year

U.S. Public Use & Certificated Airports

US Flight Delays US Flight Delays from 1995 to 2007from 1995 to 2007

Data source: FAA Operational Network (OPSNET)

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Flight Cancellationsfrom 2000 to 2007 (by month)from 2000 to 2007 (by month)

Source: DOT, Air Travel Consumer Report, http://airconsumer.ost.dot.gov/ & BTS On Time Performance data

(top 11 airlines from 2000 to 2002, top 20 airlines from 2003 to 2007)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

http://airconsumer.ost.dot.gov/

Growth LimitsConstraints vs Damping

Downside: FinancialDownside: Financial

Upside: Capacity, MarketUpside: Capacity, Market

Capacity Limit Factors

Airport CapacityRunwaysGatesLandside Limits (including Security)Weather

Airspace Capacity Airspace DesignController WorkloadBalkanization

DemandPeak DemandHub & Spoke Networks

Environmental Limits Noise (relates to Airport)Emissions (local, Ozone, NOX, CO2)

Airport SystemCapacity Limit Factors

Arrival/Departure Routes

Runways

WeatherCapacity Variability

Gates

Downstream Constraints

Controller Workload

Landside LimitsTerminalsRoad Access

EnvironmentalCommunity NoiseEmissions

Safety

Adaptive System - Impedance Matching

Key Terminal System Flows(adaptive system - impedance matching)

GatesGates

AddAdd’’l Paxl PaxScreenScreen

Ckd BagCkd BagScreenScreen

CheckCheck--InInDropDrop--offoffParkingParking

AirsideAirside LandsideLandside

PassengersPassengers

Bags/CargoBags/Cargo

GroundGroundTransportTransport

PickPick--upupParkingParking

SecuritySecurityCheckCheck

GateGateBoardingBoarding

Bag ClaimBag Claim

SecuritySecurityPointPoint

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Runways


Gates


Controller Workload



Safety

Separation Requirements for Arrival (Same Runway)

Wake Turbulence RequirementRadar Separation Requirements

Visual Separation RequirementsPilots Discretion

Preceding arrival must be clear of runway at touchdownRunway Occupancy Time Limit

Leading Aircraft

Heavy Large SmallHeavy 4 5 5B757 4 4 5Large 3(2.5) 3(2.5) 4Small 3(2.5) 3(2.5) 3(2.5)

Trailing Aircraft

A-380Breakeven Separation for Airport Throughput?



Runways


Gates


Controller Workload



Safety

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Departures per Hour

Arr

ival

s pe

r Hou

r

ASPM - April 2000 - Instrument Approaches

Calculated IMC Capacity

Reduced Rate (ATL)84,90

ASPM - April 2000 - Visual Approaches

Calculated VMC Capacity

Optimum Rate (ATL)100,100

Each dot represents one hour of actual traffic

during April 2000

Airport Capacity EnvelopesAtlanta (ATL)

VFR

IFR

Source: FAA Benchmark Data

Airport Capacity EnvelopesBoston (BOS)

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Departures per Hour

Arr

ival

s pe

r Hou

ASPM - Apr 2000 - Visual Approaches

ASPM - Jul/Aug 2000 - VisualApproachesCalculated VMC Capacity

Optimum Rate (BOS)

68,50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Departures per Hour

Arr

ival

s pe

r Hou

ASPM - Apr 2000 - Instrument ApproachesASPM - Jul/Aug 2000 - Instrument ApproachesCalculated IMC CapacityReduced Rate (BOS)

44,44

VFR

IFR

Source: FAA Benchmark Data

Variable Capacity Effects

100000080000060000040000020000000

10

20

30

40

50

60

Total Operations (CY95)

SFO

LGA EWR STL

LAX

ORD

DFW

ATLBOS

JFK

PHX

LAS

SJU

HNLPIT DEN

CLT

IAH

MEM

Data from FAA Capacity Office, CY95

1995 Delays vs OperationsFrom John Andrews, MIT Lincoln Lab

QuickTime™ and aMicrosoft Video 1 decompressorare needed to see this picture.

Network Effects and Delay Propagation

Source: ASDI data

Delays at Chicago O’Hare

Source: FAA OPSNET data

ORD: Total Delays

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Tota

l Del

ays 2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

Flight Delays Reemerging


OPSNET National Delays

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Tota

l Del

ays 2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

24

Solutions to Address Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy

Demand

Airport Capacity

Demand/Supply Inadequacy

Demand Management

“Do Nothing”: Delay Homeostasis

Changes in Infrastructure Utilization

Capacity Enhancement

Regulation Based Mechanism

Market Based Mechanism

Airport Capacity Expansion

Demand Diversion: Secondary Airport Emergence

Debanking

Passenger Traffic

Aircraft movements

Range restrictionsOperation Type restrictions

Slot control

Secondary market trading

Auction

Congestion pricing

System view

Efficiency Improvement

Other ?

Other ?

Source: Philippe Bonnefoy

Concrete Solution (BOS)

Current Airport Expansion Projects

Top 30 Congested Airports in 2005 Expansion Projects

SEA: 39 years +46% improvement

BOS: 37 years

ATL: ~15 years33% improvement

STL: 8 years48% improvement

IAD: ~10 yearsLAX: ~10 years

PHL: 3 yearsORD: 2 years

Solution Refinement Loop

Multi-Stakeholder Transition Modelwith Implementation Barriers

Demand

System Capability

Decision Making

Collective Decisions


ObjectiveFormation

StakeholderValues, Context

Capability Options

Negotiation Loop


Change Process

Catalytic Event

Public Awareness

Safety and Environmental Approval Processes


Stakeholder Preferences

StakeholderDecisions

Delays

Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska

Environmental Limitations

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Noise Emissions

Airport Construction in Key Areas has Slowed

Airport Opening Date (top 30 airports in 2005)

1970: NEPA passed requiring EIS

30

Year: 2000 Year: 2006

Data source: [Delay data: FAA Operational Network, OPSNET], [Capacity improvement: FAA Operational Evolution Plan OEP].

Capacity Improvement at OEP Airports(2000 vs 2006 Delay Rankings)

Airport Airport Percentage of OEP new runway projectcode name operations (date completion/

delayed capacity benefit)LGA LaGuardia 15.6%EWR Newark 8.1%ORD Chicago 6.3%SFO San Francisco 5.7%BOS Boston 4.8% 2006 / +2%PHL Philadelphia 4.5%JFK Kennedy 3.9%ATL Atlanta 3.1% 2006 / +33%IAH Houston 2.8%DFW Dallas/Ft.Worth 2.4%PHX Phoenix 2.2%LAX Los Angeles 2.2%IAD Dulles 2.0%STL St. Louis 1.8% 2006 / +48 %DTW Detroit 1.8%CVG Cincinnati 1.5% 2005 / +12 %MSP Minn./St. Paul 1.3% 2005 / +19 %MIA Miami 1.1%SEA Seattle 1.0% 2008 / +46 %LAS Las Vegas 0.8%DCA Reagan National 0.8%BWI Balt.-Wash. Intl 0.7%MCO Orlando 0.6%CLT Charlotte 0.6% 2008 / +11%PIT Pittsburgh 0.4%SAN San Diego 0.3%DEN Denver 0.2%SLC Salt Lake City 0.2%TPA Tampa 0.2%MEM Memphis 0.0%

Airport Code Airport namePercentage of

operations delayed

OEP new runway project (date completion / capacity benefit)

EWR Newark 12.0%LGA LaGuardia 9.1%ORD Chicago 6.9% TBDJFK Kennedy 6.0%PHL Philadelphia 5.6% 2007 / Delay ReductionATL Atlanta 5.1% 2006 / 33%BOS Boston 2.9% 2006 / Delay ReductionSFO San Francisco 2.9%IAH Houston 2.5%LAS Las Vegas 2.4%CLT Charlotte 1.3%PHX Phoenix 1.1%DFW Dallas/Ft.Wort 0.9%DTW Detroit 0.9%MDW Midway 0.9%IAD Dulles 0.6% 2008 / 12%DCA Reagan Nation 0.6%SLC Salt Lake City 0.4%LAX Los Angeles 0.4% 2007 / NASEA Seattle 0.4% 2008 / 46%MIA Miami 0.4%

MEM Memphis 0.4%MSP Minn./St. Paul 0.3%CVG Cincinnati 0.3%DEN Denver 0.3%BWI Balt.-Wash. Int 0.2%MCO Orlando 0.2%PIT Pittsburgh 0.1%STL St. Louis 0.0% 2006 / 48%

31

Runway, Runway Extensions, Reconfigurations or New Airports with Environmental Impact Statements or Planning

Studies Underway

Data source: [Capacity improvement: FAA Operational Evolution Plan OEP].

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Demand

Airport Capacity


Demand Management








Debanking

Passenger Traffic

Aircraft movements


Slot control


Auction

Congestion pricing

System view


Other ?

Other ?


MIT ICATMIT ICAT

Emergence of Secondary Airports“Southwest Effect”

SFO

LAX

MSP

DAL

HOU

DTWORD

STL

CVG

ATL

DCA

PHL

LGA / JFK / EWR

BOS

MIA

PHX

Original Core airport

Secondary airport

BUR

OAK/SJC

ONT

SNA

FLL

BWI ISP

MHT

MDWPVD

LGB

Emerged Core airport

DFW

IAH

IAD

New YorkRegional Airport System

”Flow” of departure and arrivals: - morning (dep.>arr., dep. to west coast)- rebalances throughout the day with arrivals from west coast

move back closer to ½ - ½ with departures to Europe in the evening

New York Regional Airport System - Temporal Demand

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120

140

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180

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Departure Rate (per hour)

Arr

ival

Rat

e (p

er h

our)

00:00 - 06:00

6:00 - 10:00

10:00 - 14:00

14:00 - 18:0018:00 - 22:00

22:00 - 00:00

Regional airport system: Five airports combined

Terminal areas at capacity (closer to capacity) in the 16:00 – 20:00 time window

Philippe Bonnefoy: Analysis of Pareto Frontiers of Multi-Airport Systems

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New York SDO OperationsWake Implications of Tight RNP Routes ?

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Runways


Gates


Controller Workload



Safety

38


Demand

Airport Capacity


Demand Management








Debanking

Passenger Traffic

Aircraft movements


Slot control


Auction

Congestion pricing

System view


Other ?

Other ?


Solution Refinement Loop

Delay Homeostasis

Demand

System Capability

Decision Making

Collective Decisions


ObjectiveFormation


Capability Options

Negotiation Loop


Change Process

Catalytic Event

Public Awareness


StakeholderSchedulingDecisions

Delays

FlightSchedules



RegionalEconomy

Crisis Driven TransitionCapacity Crisis Stimulus?

Demand

System Capability

System

Selected Actions



Change Process

Catalytic Event

Public Awareness


Historically Transition Driven by Catalytic Accidents

What is Capacity Analogue?Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska

LGA Air 21 Impact

Source: William DeCota, Port Authority of New York

LaGuardia Airport

020406080

100120140160180200

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Time of Day

Historic Movements AIR-21 Induced Svc.

Maximum Hourly Operations Based on Current Airspace & ATC Design

Classic Delay vs Demand Curve

DEMAND

DELAY

CapacityLimit

LinearRegion

Non-LinearRegion

LGA

Source: William DeCota, Port Authority of New York

DEMAND

DE

LA

Y

Cap

a cit

yL

i mit

Internalized vs externalized costs

Flight Delays at LGAFlight Delays at LGA

from 2000 to 2006


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Solution

Demand ManagementOnly Rapid Public Action

Demand

System Capability

Decision Making

Collective


ObjectiveFormation


Capability Options

Negotiation Loop


Change Process

Catalytic Event

Public Awareness


Delays

DemandManagement



RegionalEconomy

46


Demand

Airport Capacity


Demand Management








Debanking

Passenger Traffic

Aircraft movements


Slot control


Auction

Congestion pricing

System view


Other ?

Other ?


MIT ICATMIT ICAT Conclusions

Capacity will not expand to meet demand at key airports“Capacity Crisis”

Delay Adaptation will occur when delay market worksSecondary AirportsScheduling

There will be a capacity crisisUnclear what the public catalytic stimulus will be

Number of demand managed airports will increase

Need good understanding of alternatives

Regional economic impact is not clear

Relationship Between Economy and Air Transportation

Economy

Demand Supply

AirlinesRevenue/ProfitabilityRevenue/Profitability

Pricing & SchedulePricing & Schedule

Financial Equity/Debt Markets

Direct / Indirect / Induced employment effects

Travel/FreightNeed

Economic Enabling Effect(Access to people / markets / ideas / capital)

Air Transportation System

Vehicle Capability

NASCapability

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