mitsubishi research institute inc. 1 mri ’ s climate activities kenichiro yamaguchi senior staff...

Mitsubishi Research Institute Inc.1

MRI’s climate activities

Kenichiro Yamaguchi

Senior Staff Researcher, MRI

New Delhi, October, 2002


What is MRI? A Japanese private think tank established in 1970, with a wide

variety of activities Has 14 years’ experience on climate-related research, since

1988 Toronto conference Has the largest research staff among the Japanese think

tanks Has worked closely with both the Japanese government and

industry on this issue Is involved in the internal discussions within Keidanren, and

has wide network in Japanese business Able to introduce suitable contacts to foreign counterparts


MRI’s recent climate-related activities

Activities to explore and forecast the “carbon-constrained world” Carbon Offset Initiative JEMS (Japan Emissions Management

Simulation) Cooperation with UNIDO

Strategic consulting on corporate climate policy


MRI Carbon Offset Initiative

Find and evaluate commercially viable projects that result in emission reduction

Explore opportunities to expand businesses related to credit trading

Eventually set up a pilot system to assess, trade and verify credits from such projects through “learning-by-doing”process


Outline of COI

Information / analysisProject identification

Decision making supportDecision making supportIn-depth feasibility studyIn-depth feasibility studyImplementation supportImplementation supportBusiness development consultingBusiness development consulting

Analysis of business opportunities


Project Identification

HFC、 PFC、 SF6

N2O

Methane

Carbon sinks

Credit Transfer

Carbon emission reduction

•Efficiency improvement •Fuel switching•Renewables

host country organizations

host country

government

ＭＲＩ•Expertise in climate issues•Contact•Consulting experienceECC

Clients


UNIDO-MRI cooperation

New initiative to push the climate agenda forward Identifying projects in the ASEAN area Cooperating with the Japanese private sector in

implementing the projects Utilizing international and Japanese funding

opportunities Developing JI/CDM assessment methodologies Workshop in Tokyo (June, 2002)


Why reduction in Japan is difficult(Even though every country says the same thing…)


Japan’s emission profile

Has to decrease emissions by 6%

So far it has increased by about 7%

Without measures, it will increase by another 10%

Decrease in 1997-98 mainly due to recession 1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

90+9

5 96 97 98 99

2010

(3gas

)

Em

iss

ion

(M

t-C

O2

)

SF6

PFC

HFC

N2O

CH4

CO2

Data from the government of Japan


Japan’s unique situation(Even though every country is unique…)

Already energy-efficient Already afforested (>60%) Few non-CO2 measures (waste,

pasture, aluminum) EU’s closer links with Eastern Eu

rope Australia…a great deal under Ky

oto Canada…very tough, but will it r

atify?

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SF6

PFC

HFC

N2O

CH4

CO2

GHG Emissions 1999

Data from the governments


Reason 1: Kyoto looks easy on paper

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Base Base High High Low Low

Em

iss

on

su

rplu

s/d

efi

cit

(M

t-C

O2

)

E.Eur.Ex-USSRUSAOther Dev.J apanW.Europe

Data from International Energy Outlook 2001


…but would it really be easy?

Implication of Marrakech Eligibility to participate in Kyoto Mechanisms will

be scrutinized… Scrutiny on source inventory Submission on sinks inventory National systems Assigned amount

Casts doubt on the availability of AAU/ERUs from FSU


Debt (CF)

Scheme of projectsJapanese

governmentHost

government

Debt

Bank

InvestorProject

companyloan

EB Registry

CDM

DOE (CDM)

equity

register

return

return

account

finance

return

(MOU)

verificationvalidation

documentdata

approval

request for CER issuance

CER

Equity (CF)

Equity

SPC

Exim

export credit

ERU


Current activities

Identification of projects Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America

Formulation of scheme Pre-payment of CER/ERU finance and risk

coverage Organizing a financing scheme Expressing the needs of private sector

mitsubishi research institute inc. 1 mri ’ s climate activities kenichiro yamaguchi senior staff...

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