mmeirs scenario 8: magnitude 7.2 earthquake along the · pdf filemmeirs scenario 8: magnitude...
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MMEIRS Scenario 8:
Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake along the West Valley Fault System
JANE T. PUNONGBAYAN, Ph.D.Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
Department of Science and Technology
UN OCHA MTG; RCBC 18 Feb 2011
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2010 January 12 Port-au-Prince, Haiti Magnitude 7.0
Photo from The Big Picture Boston.com
Presidential Palace
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2010 Feb 27 Chile Magnitude 8.8
REUTERS/Marco Fredes)
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IS THIS POSSIBLE IN METRO MANILA?
YES
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ARE WE NEXT?Not Necessarily.
What happened in Haiti and Chile has nothing to do with the system of faults in
the Philippines
BUT!Philippines is ALWAYS threatened by a large earthquake because of its tectonic
setting
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6
Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metropolitan Manila (MMEIRS)
2002 - 2004Goals:1) Evaluate seismic hazards, damages and vulnerability of MMla
- considered 18 earthquake scenarios- evaluated potential effects to buildings, lifeline, population
2) Prepare framework of master plan for earthquake disaster management
Implemented by:Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA)Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)
In cooperation with NDCC agencies and other stakeholders
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MMEIRS: There are several “BIG ONES” for Metromanila
Model M Characteristics08 – West
Valley Fault 7.2 Severe Damage
13 – Manila Trench 7.9 Tsunami
West Valley Fault
ManilaTrench
Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (JICA-MMDA-PHIVOLCS
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Model Model 08 Model 13 Model 18
Magnitude 7.2 7.9 6.5Generator West Valley Fault Subduction along
Manila TrenchOffshore Fault in Manila Bay
Seismic Intensity (PEIS)
VIII - for most ofMetroManila,
IX - alongside Marikina River and Manila Bay
VIII - West of MetromanilaVII - other areas
Almost VIII,VII in Quezon City
Tsunami possibility
NONE Maximum 4maverage 2m alongside Manila Bay
Small effect
Some Scenario Earthquakes
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Source: HIGP, Univ. Hawaii
West Valley Fault
Manila Bay
Subic West Valley Fault
Angat Dam
La MesaDam
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HOW STRONG IS SCENARIO 08?• A magnitude 7.2 is similar to 50 Megatons of
TNT; equivalent to that of Tsar Bomba (50 megatons), the largest thermonuclear weapon ever tested
• Haiti case: epicenter some 10km from Port-au-Prince
• Scenario 08: Epicenter WITHIN MetroManila.
The West Valley Fault is right in our backyard. NDCC Opcen is about 1.8 km away from the fault; PHIVOLCS only 3 km away.
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GROUNDSHAKINGGROUND RUPTURE
LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDES
ATTENDANT HAZARDS
FIRE
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MetroManila cities transected by the West Valley Fault
Surface Geology of Metro Manila
1.Quezon 2.Marikina3.Pasig4.Makati5.Pateros6.Taguig7.Muntinlupa
Fault Mapping by PHIVOLCS
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CIRCLEKatipunan
NDCC
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Shaw
PioneerBoni
Ortigas
Vargas
PLDT
Rod
rigue
z-La
nuza
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McKinley Rd
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Road cutArea separation
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ESTIMATES OF MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF GROUNDSHAKINGScenario 08: M=7.2
• PEIS HIGH VIII (brown) for most of MetroManila
• PEIS IX (red) for areas near the fault or underlain by soft sediments
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PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale (PEIS)
I - Scarcely PerceptibleII - Slightly FeltIII - WeakIV - Moderately StrongV - StrongVI - Very StrongVII - DestructiveVIII - Very DestructiveIX - DevastatingX - Completely
Devastating
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What to prepare for: INTENSE GROUNDSHAKINGEarthquake of Kobe, Japan 1995
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1995 Kobe Earthquake
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Hyatt Hotel in Baguio City after the magnitude 7.8 earthquake of July 16, 1990
MMEIRS: 4 out of 10 buildings will be damaged or collapsed
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BUILDING DAMAGE ESTIMATESMagnitude 7.2 Earthquake from the West Valley Fault
Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (JICA-MMDA-PHIVOLCS)
• ~ 40 % of the residential buildings * 175,000 – heavily damaged* 345,000 – partly damaged
• ~ 38 % of the 10-30 story buildings• ~ 14 % of the 30-60 story buildings
• ~ 28-35 % of public buildings * 8-10 % - heavily damaged*20-25 % - partly damaged
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BUILDING DAMAGE
ANALYSIS
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Liquefaction: The ground loses strength and structures built on top of it may sink or tilt...
At risk are places with high water content
Brgy. Das-ay, Hinunangan, Southern Leyte, 2007
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LIQUEFACTION AND LATERAL SPREADING
Lateral spreading in Brgy. Patong, HinunanganJuly 19, 2007 earthquake
Mindoro 1994
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Liquefaction Potential (Scenario 08)
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Landslide
Guinsaugon case:Water-saturated slopes fail easier; lower magnitudes might trigger landslides
Kennon RoadBaguio
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FIRE SPREAD ANALYSIS FIRE: A Secondary Hazard:
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DAMAGE ESTIMATES
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Number of Deaths Analysis
(Scenario 08)
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Death Ratio
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Failed Bridges/Flyovers
• Cars lie overturned after the highway they were travelling on was destroyed in an earthquake in Santiago February 27, 2010. (REUTERS/Marco Fredes)
2010 Feb 27 Chile Magnitude 8.8
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Bridges/ Flyovers Stability Analysis
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•Picture taken on March 1, 2010 of telephone and power lines brought down in Concepcion, Chile, by the 8.8-magnitude earthquake three days earlier. (EVARISTO SA/AFP/Getty Images) #
2010 Feb 27 Chile Magnitude 8.8
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Electric Powerline Damage Analysis
(scenario 08)
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WATER PIPELINE DAMAGE ANALYSIS
(scenario 08)
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Telecommunications Facilities Damage
Analysis
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Main Areas of concern/ Frameworks for the Earthquake Impact Mitigation (MMEIRS Final Report Ch.3)
• NSD-1: Protect stability of Nat’l Govt. • NSD-2: Protect stability of socio-economic System
• RMS-8: Fire suppression and hazardous material abatement• RMS-9: Evacuation Route and Evacuation Sites• RMS-10: Water, Food and other necessities• RMS-11: Emergency Health and Medical Response System• RMS-12: Emergency Transportation Network• RMS-12: Search and Rescue• RMS-13: Information and Communication System• RMS-14: Establish Information System (GIS)• RMS-15: Manage Emergency Public Information
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Most of the medical facilities, even if undamaged, will not be very useful during the first few hours after the quake
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Magnitude 7.9 Earthquake SICHUAN, CHINA 2008
Hundreds of felt aftershocks will followMagnitude 7.0 HAITI, 2010
MMEIRS estimates there will be 3.15 million refugees after the M7.2 quake
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L’Aquila, Italy April 6 2009 Earthquake
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•Residents try to force their way into a supermarket to buy food and essentials as police try to keep order after an earthquake in Concepcion February 28, 2010. (REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra) #
2010 Feb 27 Chile Magnitude 8.8mothers trying to get food from a supermarket
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• Residents loot a supermarket after an earthquake in Concepcion February 28, 2010. Chilean rescuers used shovels and sledgehammers on Sunday to find survivors of a huge earthquake in Chile that unleashed a Pacific tsunami and triggered looting by desperate and hungry residents. (REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra) #
2010 Feb 27 Chile Magnitude 8.8fathers looting a supermarket to get food
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•Residents collect water from children's swimming pools, as the potable water system remains broken, after a major earthquake in Concepcion, Chile on March 1, 2010. (REUTERS/Jose Luis Saavedra) #
2010 Feb 27 Chile Magnitude 8.8children’s pools become drinking water
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Clearing of debris
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Magnitude 7.0 2010 Jan. 12 Port-au-Prince, HaitiDead: 200,000 +
Another task: mass casualty management
2009 April 6 Aquila, Italy Magnitude 6.3 dead: 260+
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West– Fire, Building
Damage North
– Bridge Damage South
– Bridge Damage East
– Building Damage, Bridge Damage
Possible Regional Separation:
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Local government units on their own for the first few hours and days after the quake
Ex. QUEZON CITY will have to handle a lot
• City Population: 2.68 Million
• Brgy. Commonwealth (172,338) & Batasan Hills (148,621) have each a population bigger than City of San Juan (125,338) and Pateros (61,940)
• City’s growth rate over 7 yrs almost equals the population of Makati (510,383) and surpasses that of Marikina (424,610)
Info Source: QC website
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NDCC Offices
Map Produced by: Rapid Earthquake Damage Assessment System (REDAS)
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NEARBY PROVINCES WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED
Int. VIII and aboveInt. VIIInt. VIInt. V and below
Laguna
VIII-IXVIIVI
Cavite
Bulacan
Rizal
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WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN?
• NO one knows
• What science knows is, the return period of this earthquake is estimated at about 200 - 400 years and that no large earthquake has happened in the West Valley Fault since the 1700s. The last significant event was in 1658 (350+ years ago)
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MPAT TE-16, Manila April, 2009
The response agencies must at all cost remain effective and efficient during this crisis
BON COURAGE!