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Media Release

Chicago Business Barometer Makes Positive Start to Q2Businesses Not Concerned About Fed Rate Lift-Off

The Chicago Business Barometer made a positive start to the second quarter, rising by 6.0 points to 52.3 in April, the highest since January, and further distancing itself from February’s 5½-year low.

The Barometer was supported by gains in four of its five components including a double digit gain in New Orders that reversed around two-thirds of February’s sharp drop. Order Backlogs also rose strongly but remained below the 50 breakeven line, a reflection of the recent downturn in orders. Production moved out of contraction and the strong gain in New Orders should help to underpin output over the coming months.

Feedback from panellists was very mixed. Comments from service sector companies were more positive than manufacturers. In line with the improvement in orders and output, Employment increased to the highest since January, following the slump in February and March that affected nearly all of the indicators in the survey as growth in the US economy decelerated sharply in Q1.

Lead times for Supplier Deliveries declined for a second month, although an overwhelming majority of survey panellists reported that they were unchanged from last month. Quicker lead times were due in part to better weather, a resumption of normality following the disruption of the West Coast port strike and the Chinese New Year. In contrast, days to source Production Materiel rose for the second month and to the longest since August 2014.

Following a sharp increase in March, inventories of finished goods edged slightly lower in line with the pick-up in orders in April after weaker sales than expected in the previous two months.

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Media Relations

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Disinflationary pressures intensified in April as Prices Paid contracted at a faster rate, hitting the lowest level since July 2009. Some purchasers cited weakness in oil and steel related products.

In a special question posed in April, half of the panel thought that a rate hike by the Fed over the next six months would have no impact on their business as it had already been factored in.

Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “The bounce back in activity at the start of Q2 is consistent with a resumption of normal activity following the poor weather and port strikes earlier in the year. In percentage terms, the April jump is similar to last year, although the level of activity is lower overall.“

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Copyright© 2015 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group

Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.

About MNI Indicators

MNI Indicators specialises in producing business and consumer surveys designed to present an advance picture of the economic landscape and

highlight changing trends in business and consumer activity. The timely reports explore attitudes, perspectives and sentiment across the globe,

including China, India and Russia. Alongside MNI Indicators’ core focus on consumer and business surveys in emerging markets, MNI Indicators

produces the renowned Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI), a key leading indicator of the US economy. MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading

provider of news and intelligence, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse AG, and one of the largest worldwide exchange organisations.

About ISM-Chicago

ISM-Chicago is a non-profit association dedicated to strengthening the community of purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicagoland

area. As an affiliate of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the organization is committed to the ongoing professional development of its members

and the purchasing and supply management profession through education, research and communication. For more information on becoming a part of

ISM-Chicago, call (847) 298-1940.

Notes to Editors

Please source all information to MNI Indicators.

The MNI Chicago Report is published by MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, in partnership with the ISM-Chicago.

The MNI Chicago Report is published monthly and contains the Chicago Business BarometerTM and a number of other Business Activity and Buying Policy

indicators. The data is seasonally adjusted.

The Chicago Business BarometerTM is a closely watched leading indicator of U.S. economic activity and is based on a survey panel of purchasing/supply-

chain professionals, primarily drawn from membership of the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago (ISM-Chicago). The survey panel contains both

manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, many with global operations.

The Chicago Business BarometerTM is a composite diffusion indicator made up of the Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Employment and Supplier

Deliveries indicators and is designed to predict future changes in gross domestic product (GDP).

An indicator reading above 50 indicates expansion compared with a month earlier while below 50 indicates contraction. A result of 50 is neutral. The

farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.