mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ...€¦ · israel, argentina, spain, czech...

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 23

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• The United States passed the grim milestone of 200,000 coronavirus-related fatalities

on September 22, more than 100,000 higher than the country with the second-

highest number of COVID-19 fatalities (India with 90,020). The United States now

accounts for 20.7% of total global COVID-19 fatalities and 21.8% of confirmed cases

despite its population only accounting for 4.3% of the world’s total. On September 22

the US’s average new case increase per day across the past week stood at 43,411,

the highest figure for a month.

• UK Prime Minsiter Boris Johnson announced a tightening of COVID-19 restrictions in

England on September 22 as the seven-day average increase in cases exceeded

4,000 per day for the first time since May 5, when the UK remained in its initial full

lockdown. The rise in cases has not yet corresponded to a major uptick in COVID-19

related fatalities, although the 37 fatalities due to the virus registered on September

22 was the highest 24-hour total since July 14.

• Russia records 6,109 new cases on September 22, its highest daily total since July

18. On September 22, President Vladimir Putin talked up Russia’s ‘Sputnik-V’

potential COVID-19 vaccine in his address to the UN General Assembly, offering it to

all UN workers worldwide once it has completed clinical trials.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 23. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 0945BST September 23. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,

Sweden and the UK not available.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases in Past 24

Hrs

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 31,600,434 279,554 21,511,695 970,799 6,053 3.1 0.96%

Argentina 652,174 12,027 517,228 13,952 470 2.1 1.76%

Australia 26,972 30 24,414 859 5 3.2 0.10%

Belgium 105,226 1,834 N/A 9,955 5 9.5 1.50%

Brazil 4,591,364 33,324 4,016,831 138,105 833 3.0 0.67% Canada 148,855 1,272 128,890 9,286 7 6.2 0.79%

Chile 448,523 1,055 423,176 12,321 23 2.7 0.34% China 90,399 18 85,275 4,737 0 5.2 0.03%

Colombia 777,537 7,102 650,801 24,570 173 3.2 0.93%

France 507,150 10,299 94,961 31,426 80 6.2 2.27%

Germany 277,412 1,852 245,886 9,405 15 3.4 0.66% Hong Kong 5,046 8 N/A 103 0 2.0 0.20%

India 5,646,010 83,347 4,587,613 90,020 1,085 1.6 1.69% Iran 429,193 3,712 363,737 24,656 178 5.7 0.75%

Italy 300,897 1,391 219,670 35,738 14 11.9 0.53%

Japan 79,773 311 71,214 1,519 1 1.9 0.61%

Mexico 705,263 4,683 598,953 74,348 651 10.5 0.60%

Peru 768,895 0 629,094 31,369 0 4.1 0.67% Russia 1,111,157 6,109 914,923 19,575 155 1.8 0.54% Saudi Arabia 330,798 552 312,684 4,542 30 1.4 0.17%

Singapore 57,627 21 57,262 27 0 0.05 0.03%

South Africa 663,282 1,346 592,904 16,118 126 2.4 0.26%

South Korea 23,216 110 20,650 388 0 1.7 0.45%

Spain 682,267 10,799 N/A 30,904 241 4.5 1.79% Sweden 89,436 1,199 N/A 5,870 5 6.6 0.34%

UK 403,551 4,926 N/A 41,825 37 10.4 1.08% US 6,896,218 39,334 2,646,959 200,786 921 2.9 0.65%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Belgium

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Canada

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Japan

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 23, and represents full-day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, Brazil, Argentina, Spain,

France, Colombia, Russia, UK, Iraq.

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Montenegro, Bahrain,

Israel, Argentina, Spain, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Kuwait, Moldova, Luxembourg. Countries with population below 100k

excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 22. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama,

Kuwait, Chile, Peru, Israel, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: India, US, Brazil Mexico,

Argentina, Spain, Iran, Colombia, Indonesia, Russia.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Barbados, Montenegro, Sri

Lanka, Argentina, Spain, Suriname, Bahamas, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 22. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,

Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, UK, US, Italy. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ...€¦ · israel, argentina, spain, czech...

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