mobile operator call records: potential and pitfalls - linus bengtsson.pdf · 2016-12-15 · ncell...
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Thailand
Mobile Operator Call Records:
Potential and Pitfalls
Linus Bengtsson MD, Ph.D. [email protected]
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Content
1. Flowminder
2. Mobile Operator Data: What is it?
3. Application areas
1. Challenges
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Non-profit foundation working with data providers and international/government agencies to operationalize
and scale applications in support of vulnerable populations and sustainable development.
Key partners and donors:
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Pioneered Anonymized Mobile Network Data for Infectious Disease: (2008 Zanzibar, Kenya, 2012 Haiti, 2013- Namibia, Indonesia) and Crisis Response (Haiti 2010 earthquake and cholera. Nepal 2015)
Ouest
Sud
Centre
Artibonite
Nord-Est
Grande-Anse
Nord
Sud-Est
Nord-Ouest
Nippes
Average daily numbers of sims that moved out from the communal sections surroundingSaint-Marc, Oct 15 to Oct 23, 9:00 am, 2010.
Outbreak area
250
500
100
10
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All Methods are Open and Published in Peer Reviewed Journals for
Validation and Transparency
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Mobile Operator Data: What Is It?
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User makes a call
from location X
User travels to
Y and makes a
call
X
Y
Call routed through
nearest tower Network operator records time
and tower of call for billing
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8
FLOWMINDER.ORG
Call Data Records (CDR) is billing information
(A) number – caller: anonymized
Cell_ID: location
Type: call, SMS, data, etc
Date & time
(B) number – receiving party: anonymized
Data volume
Mobile network data: Call detail records (CDR)
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Operators Call Detail Records’ (CDRs)
including low-resolution location data
(nearest tower location) anonymized on
separate server hosted by operator.
We conduct analyses under operator supervision, anonymous raw data always behind operator firewall
GSMA data integrity guidelines: Data never leaves mobile operator’s system
Aggregated mobility estimates are exported and made open access - can be used with other mobility estimates, epidemiological data
Mobile operator firewall
Preserving User Privacy
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Application Areas:
1. Population Data and Migration
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Nigeria 2015
Refs: See www.worldpop.org
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Dynamic Facility Catchment Populations
Ref: Zu Erbach et. al. 2016. Under review. Deville et al. PNAS. 2014
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High-Resolution Maps of Population Characteristics
2010-11 Nigeria LSMS:
Consumption-based metric
FLOWMINDER.ORG
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Total Top-ups
High
Low
% Nocturnal Calls High
Low
Radius of Gyration
High
Low
Enhanced Vegetation Index Lush Vegetation
Bare Ground
Temperature
High
Low
Distance to Roads
Near Far
Precipitation
High
Low
Nightlight Intensity
High
Low
Ref: Steele et. al. Under review
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Combining Mobile and Remote Sensing Data for Poverty Mapping
Ref: Steele et. al. Under review
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Ref: Lu et al. Global Environmental Change, 2016
Migration Patterns
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Application Areas:
2. Disaster response and Preparedness
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Disasters Cause Large-Scale Population Movements
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Post-earthquake movements from Port-au-Prince Mobile phone movements from cholera outbreak area
Haiti Earthquake 2010
Reference: Bengtsson et al. PLoS Medicine 2011
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Predictive Modeling
20
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Wilson et al. PLoS Current 2016.
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Nepal Earthquake 2015: Setup & First Insights Within 14 Days
2. Kathmandu Valley
Kathmandu Valley is here defined as the districts
Kathmandu, Bhaktapur and Lalitpur. Kathmandu
Valley is one of the most densely populated areas
in Nepal and home to ca 2.8 m people [1].
Key f indings:
➔ An estimated 390,000 people more than
normal had left the Kathmandu valley -
comparing May 1 with the day before the
earthquake April 24 (ratio to the
population: 14%).
➔ An estimated 247,000 persons less than
normal had come into the area during the
same period(ratio to the population: 8.8%)
➔ People leaving Kathmandu Valley went to
a large number of areas, notably the
populous areas in the south and the
Central and West Development Regions.
Contacts:
[email protected] +41 78 964 88 28
[email protected] +46 70 893 88 37
[email protected] +44 7703 392 192
+390,000(246,000~540,000)
Nepal Populat i on Est im at es
as of M ay 1, 2015
4
2.8m
Above normal f lows f rom Kathmandu Valley t o other dist r ict s
Above normal flows from Kathmandu Valley to other
districts (comparing pre-earthquake April 24 and May 1).
Produced 8 May 2015
[1] www.worldpop.org
Populat ion out f low
(above normal)
Pre-earthquake populat ion
Flowminder.org is a non-profit organization registered in Stockholm, Sweden. Ncell is a mobile operator in Nepal
and part of the TeliaSonera group. Analyses are based on de-identified mobile network data and conducted in
accordance with mobile industry (GSMA) Guidelines on the protection of privacy in the use of mobile phone data for
responding to the Ebola outbreak, published October 2014.
Populat ion inf low
(above normal)
- 247,000( - 155,000~- 339,000)
Ref: Bengtsson et al. Sci Rep. 2015; Wesolowski et al. PLoS Currents 2014; Wilson et al. PLoS Current 2016.
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“During the Nepal earthquake, the Office of the UN Resident Coordinator established an assessment unit providing evidence-based information and situation awareness of key humanitarian priorities to a number of different humanitarian actors.
Flowminder mobile analysis really helped OCHA and other agencies in doing better coordination and operational planning.”
Luca Dell’Oro, UN OCHA
“When the first Flowminder-Ncell report came out after the Nepal earthquake we used it right away in our national assessment of food security. Displaced people are often the most food insecure. Getting national and district level numbers on displaced populations was thus an important component in our assessment of where to focus support after the earthquake.”
Kurt Burgar, UN WFP
Operational Impact
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Key Issues and Challenges
• Agree on indicators
• Quantifying uncertainty. Reducing bias. Who is left out?
• Importance of combing multiple data sources
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Application Areas:
3. Infectious Disease Modelling
Ouest
Sud
Centre
Artibonite
Nord-Est
Grande-Anse
Nord
Sud-Est
Nord-Ouest
Nippes
Average daily numbers of sims that moved out from the communal sections surroundingSaint-Marc, Oct 15 to Oct 23, 9:00 am, 2010.
Outbreak area
250
500
100
10
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Population Dynamics: Disease Elimination
How does mobility impact
transmission?
Where should resources
be focussed?
Ouest
Sud
Centre
Artibonite
Nord-Est
Grande-Anse
Nord
Sud-Est
Nord-Ouest
Nippes
Average daily numbers of sims that moved out from the communal sections surroundingSaint-Marc, Oct 15 to Oct 23, 9:00 am, 2010.
Outbreak area
250
500
100
10
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Key Issues and Challenges
• Infectious diseases are fundamentally different and require different
types of modeling
• Limited number of robust studies
• Operator can be very important but sometimes not the biggest
limitation
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The Star Trek Fallacy
1. Data is the tool, not the solution – issue-driven vs. data-driven problem solving.
2. Remote sensing data and analytics can augment but not replace field data (”ground truth”), eg. surveys.
3. Very few studies of bias
4. Mobile network data is not a magic potion: • Mobile data is heterogenous – market/operators.
• Representativeness – what does a SIM card represent?
• Fundamental characteristics (subscribers) constantly changing.
• Realtime mobile data without validation = realtime mistakes
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Summary and Policy Implications
• Evaluating use of apps is different from understanding the
population as a whole
• Importance of aggregating and combing with other data sources
Need for preparation. Disasters not suitable for experimentation
• Different data needed for different applications
• Need for continuous research and development
• Importance of legal frameworks
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www.worldpop.org
www.flowminder.org
@WorldPopProject
@Flowminder