mobile platform wars: apple, android, samsung and facebook

Platform Wars Apple, Android, Samsung and Facebook

Benedict Evans / [email protected] / +44 7880 786 727 / @benedictevans

September 2012

Growth, for some

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Feb-‐2008 Sep-‐2008 Mar-‐2009 Oct-‐2009 May-‐2010 Nov-‐2010 Jun-‐2011 Dec-‐2011 Jul-‐2012

Quarterly smartphone unit sales (m)

iPhone Android Symbian RIM Windows Phone

[Source: Companies, Enders Analysis]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Samsung Apple Nokia HTC LG RIM Motorola Sony

Handset revenue ($bn)

Q2 2011 Q2 2012 [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis]

Platform Wars, September 2012 2

Polarisation

Nokia Samsung

iPhone

LG Moto HTC RIM

Sony

Other Android

Other non-‐smart

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Units shipp

ed (m

)

ASP ($)

Q2 2012 global mobile handset business

Bubble size = revenue [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis]

iPhone

Samsung Android

All other Android

Nokia smart

RIM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Units shipp

ed (m

)

ASP ($)

Q2 2012 global smartphone business

Bubble size = revenue [Source: Companies, Enders Analysis]


Marketing


9.5

0.9 1.5

4.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Samsung Electronics, 12m to June 2012 Apple, 12m to September 2011 Nokia, 2011 Sony, 12m to March 2011

Global marketing budgets ($bn)

[Source: Companies]

Platform scale: 810m cumulative iOS & Android sales, 675m users

410

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jun-‐2007 Feb-‐2008 Oct-‐2008 Jul-‐2009 Mar-‐2010 Nov-‐2010 Jul-‐2011 Apr-‐2012

Cumulative reported activations (m)

iOS Android [Source: Apple, Google]

307

374

410

180

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

iOS Android Facebook mobile apps Amazon

Active installed base, Q2 2012 (m)

Phones iPod Touch Tablets Active users

[Source: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Enders Analysis]


Apple Cyclicality

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

iPhone unit sales by (primary) model (m)

iPhone iPhone 3G iPhone 3GS iPhone 4 iPhone 4S [Source: Apple, Enders Analysis]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12 Jun-‐12

iPad unit sales by (primary) model (m)

iPad 1 iPad 2 iPad 3 [Source: Apple, Enders Analysis]

Mobile platforms update, Q2 2012 [2012-‐083] 6

Capex and off-‐balance-‐sheet commitments at Apple: $13.2bn of new money in the last 12 months

6,041 6,150 7,447

10,752 10,450

14,126 15,001

18,628 18,971 18,653

22,500

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Dec-‐09 Mar-‐10 Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12 Jun-‐12

Apple prepayment commitments ($m)

Off balance sheet equipment, telco & media

Off-‐Balance sheet Manufacturing & components

On Balance sheet

[Source: Apple]

-‐500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Mar-‐10 Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12 Jun-‐12

Capex and prepayments at Apple ($m)

Capex (ex retail) Change in prepayments [Source: Apple]


iPhone 4 launch

iPad 2 launch

iPhone 4S launch (end of quarter)

Earlier ramp than for previous launches?

iPhone strongest in USA

72.4%

45.8%

53.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12 Jun-‐12

iPhone as % US operators' smartphone sales

AT&T Verizon Wireless Sprint (e)

[Source: Operators, Enders Analysis estimates for Sprint and Q3 & Q4 2010 AT&T]

3.7

2.7

1.5

0.2

8.1 1.4

3.2

1.3 8.9

5.1

5.9

2.8

2.1

1.1 17.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

AT&T Verizon Wireless

Sprint (e) T-‐Mobile Other operators (e)

Total

Q2 2012 US smartphone sales (m)

iPhone Other smart

[Source: Operators, Enders Analysis estimates for Sprint ‘Other Smart’ and ‘Other operators’]


UK device penetration


60%

48%

9%

20%

13% 16%

10% 10%

8% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-‐11 Apr-‐12

Share of UK adult mobile users

Basic Android iPhone Blackberry Nokia smartphone [Source: Enders Analysis/TNS-‐RI survey April 2012]

Tablets – still iPad only


2,294 1,969

3,597

1,914

4,293

3,795

5,967

4,460

262 77

266 293 347 156

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12

US tablet unit sales (000s)

Apple Samsung

[Source: Apple, Samsung]

Facebook Mobile: bigger than iOS or Android

249 316

407

101

109

136

450 420

412

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Jun-‐12

Facebook user base (m)

Using apps Using mobile web Not using mobile

[Source: Facebook, Enders Analysis]

56% 59%

48% 42%

35%

22%

13% 14% 15%

12% 8%

10%

12%

13%

48%

40%

28% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

USA UK Germany France Italy Indonesia India Turkey Brazil

Mobile as % total Facebook active users, August 2012

Smartphone Other mobile [Source: Facebook]


The iOS app store: 5 apps downloaded and $1 spent per live device per month

30

7.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jul-‐08 Dec-‐08 Jun-‐09 Dec-‐09 Jun-‐10 Dec-‐10 Jun-‐11 Dec-‐11 Jun-‐12 Dec-‐12

iOS app store growth

Cumulative Downloads (bn) Cumulative Gross App revenue ($bn)

[Source: Apple]

13.9

2.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12 Jun-‐12

iOS app store trends per live device

Downloads per live device $ Gross App Revenue per device (RH scale)

[Source: Enders Analysis]


Nokia on the edge

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jun-‐09 Sep-‐09 Dec-‐09 Mar-‐10 Jun-‐10 Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12 Jun-‐12

Nokia handset revenue by segment (€m)

Smart Feature [Source: Nokia]

26.5 28.3

24.2

16.7 16.8 19.1

9.65

6.2

0.5

2.25

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sep-‐10 Dec-‐10 Mar-‐11 Jun-‐11 Sep-‐11 Dec-‐11 Mar-‐12 Jun-‐12

Nokia smartphone shipments (m)

Symbian Windows Phone [Source: Nokia, Enders Analysis]


RIM fades away

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

RIM revenue by geography ($m)

Canada USA UK Other [Source: RIM]

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

RIM revenue by segment ($m)

Services Devices Other Services as % total [Source: RIM, Enders Analysis]


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mobile platform wars: apple, android, samsung and facebook

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