mobile services in emerging asia pacific: trends and ...€¦ · revenue during the forecast 24....

Mobile services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

© Analysys Mason Limited 2017

RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT

analysysmason.com

MOBILE SERVICES IN EMERGING ASIA–PACIFIC: TRENDS AND

FORECASTS 2016–2021

KEREM ARSAL and CAI SHIYU



WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE KEY METRICS

Regions modelled:

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

Countries modelled individually:

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Malaysia

Myanmar

Pakistan

Philippines

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Vietnam

Detailed country commentary:

• India

• Indonesia

• Malaysia

Thailand

Mobile Connections:

Handset, mobile broadband1,

M2M2

Prepaid, contract

2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)

Smartphone,

non-smartphone

Mobile Revenue:

Service3, retail

Prepaid, contract

Handset, mobile broadband1,

M2M2

Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU:

SIMs, handset

Prepaid, contract

Handset voice, data

Mobile voice traffic:

• Outgoing minutes, MoU

2

This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support

our 5-year forecast for emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP). It includes

worldwide context and specific country commentary on four key

countries: India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

The report provides forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground

market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and

external interviews.

For the complete data set for the region, please see the

accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/mobile-

EMAP-Jan2017.

About this report

Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators

in emerging Asia–Pacific that wish to gain a better understanding of local

market demands and future trends, as well as best practices overseas.

Regulatory bodies in emerging Asia–Pacific that want to deepen their

understanding of local markets and trends in overseas markets.

Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the

region, or advise others that do so, in order to gain qualitative and

quantitative market information.

Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the

mobile telecoms market in Asia–Pacific.

1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.


© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3

5. Executive summary

6. Executive summary

7. Worldwide trends

8. Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven

by infrastructure investments in network roll-out

9. Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up

of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration

10. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets

worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE

11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution

by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU

12. Regional trends

13. EMAP: Telecoms revenue increase will be driven by high mobile handset

data usage due to OTT services and 4G migration

14. Mobile penetration: Consumers in emerging Asia–Pacific countries will

slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour

15. Mobile connections: 4G will grow strongly, accounting for 50% of all mobile

connections in EMAP by the end of the forecast period

16. Geographical coverage: National broadband initiatives and advancements in

4G are driving up the number of connections

17. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow to 69% of all

handsets in EMAP by 2021 as LTE penetration increases

18. Mobile ARPU: Pricing pressure due to increasing competition in EMAP will

bring down the overall ARPU

19. EMAP – mobile: Increasing penetration in the highly competitive prepaid

segment will reduce mobile ARPU revenue

20. Country-level trends

21. India: Reliance Jio’s entry into the LTE market will increase competition and

boost the number of 4G connections

22. Indonesia: Operators are investing heavily in service upgrades, which will

accelerate 4G adoption

23. Malaysia: Intensified competition will lead to a decline in ARPU and service

revenue during the forecast

24. Thailand: Migration to 4G services will help drive an increase

in data revenue during the forecast period

25. Forecast methodology and assumptions

26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts

and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics

27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data

collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers

28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our

forecasts; this involves three main activities

29. About the authors and Analysys Mason

30. About the authors

31. About Analysys Mason

32. Research from Analysys Mason

33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

Contents



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue

(retail and wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide,

2015–2021

Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide,

2011–2021

Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of

total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021

Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021

Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue

(retail and wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and

growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021

Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015–

2021

Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging

Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G,

4G and 5G’s share of connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of

fixed broadband connections, by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2021

Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total

connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2015 and 2021

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, emerging Asia–

Pacific, 2011–2021

Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia–Pacific,

2011–2021

Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, emerging

Asia–Pacific

Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, India, 2015–2021

Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Indonesia, 2015–

2021

Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Malaysia, 2015–

2021

Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Thailand, 2015–

2021

List of figures



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and

wholesale), emerging Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021

6

Growth in mobile data, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will

compensate for a decline in voice and messaging revenue in

emerging Asia–Pacific during the forecast period. Total

telecoms retail revenue will reach USD319 billion in 2021.

Migration from 2G to 3G has been strong in recent years, thanks

to better network coverage, and 4G take-up will continue to

increase during the forecast period. China is experiencing rapid

4G take-up, thanks to the government’s investments and

favourable telecoms policies. In addition, the launch of Reliance

Jio in India and the expected launch of 4G in Bangladesh will drive

take-up in these densely populated countries.

Operators are moving towards data-led pricing. This will lead to

increasing pressure to reduce the price per GB, despite currently

low levels. For example, operators in Indonesia and Malaysia have

already started to offer heavily discounted prices for 4G data.

However, data traffic is increasing due to modern OTT

applications, 4G migration and smartphone growth. Audio and

video streaming, AR/VR and other similar use cases will drive the

growth of data traffic and associated mobile data revenue in the

region.

Emerging Asia–Pacific’s mobile retail revenue represented 26.5%

of total mobile revenue worldwide in 2015, and its share will

increase to 27.8% by 2021, thanks to rapid data revenue growth.

Executive summary

Mobile voice Mobile messagingRetail revenue:

Service revenue (retail and wholesale):

Mobile handset data

Mobile broadband Mobile IoT

Fixed voice and narrowband Fixed broadband and IPTV

Business network services

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

Rev

enue

(U

SD

bil

lion

)

Source: Analysys Mason



Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia–Pacific,

2011–2021

14

Mobile population penetration in emerging Asia–Pacific will grow

from 81% in 2015 to 100% by the end of 2021, primarily

because mobile services are becoming more affordable and

coverage is expanding across all the countries in the region.

The market will be dominated by prepaid plans, as customers find

postpaid plans to be prone to bill-shocks and operators compete

mostly via prepaid pricing. However, postpaid subscriptions will

increase because operators are now offering incentives to move

subscribers from prepaid to postpaid; for example, device

subsidies, higher data allowance and OTT offers.

Malaysia is the only country in emerging Asia–Pacific where

active mobile SIM penetration will decline. This is because it is

currently the most-penetrated market in the region (146% in

2015), and we expect the number of multi-SIM users to decline

after operators reduce their aggressive pricing.

Telecoms market liberalisation in Myanmar has resulted in an

increase in mobile service adoption. SIM penetration in

Myanmar will catch up with the region’s average by 2017.

There were several regulatory actions around deactivation of

unregistered SIMs in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand and

Vietnam during the period between 2014 and 2015. This

negatively affected their SIM penetration rates, but they will

grow slowly over the forecast period.

Mobile penetration: Consumers in emerging Asia–Pacific

countries will slowly move from multi-SIM to single-SIM behaviour



CONTENTSCONTENTS

29

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

REGIONAL TRENDS

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

INDIA

INDONESIA

MALAYSIA

THAILAND

FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON



About the authors

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) Shiyu contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia–Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore

office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia–

Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative

and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS

Business School, Singapore.

Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Mobile Services research programme; he also co-leads the

Convergence Strategies research programme. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing,

MVNO strategies, and the impact of fixed-mobile convergence on telecom markets. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid

Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous

projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and

enterprise segments. Kerem has a PhD in Information Systems from Boston University.



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mobile services in emerging asia pacific: trends and ...€¦ · revenue during the forecast 24....

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