mobility and energy infrastructure · 2017-11-14 · 2 current political and technological...
TRANSCRIPT
Corporate Finance
Advisory
Mobility and Energy Infrastructure
Finadvice, Advising The Energy And Infrastructure Sector Since 1998
Energy &
Infrastructure
Hans Poser, 5th Energy Infrastructure Day, Munich, 17 October 2017
2
Current political and technological developments around the world incl. the
VW-emission scandal are pushing towards emission free mobility
A shocking turn that few could see coming
General Motors (GM) has announced its abrupt
decision to phase out manufacturing cars that
rely on diesel and gasoline and
move towards an all-electric by 2023.
Volkswagen is investing 70 billion Euros into
electric vehicles
“We have got the message and we will deliver,” the
CEO said. “This is not some vague declaration
of intent. It is a strong self-commitment”
All Volvo cars to be electric or hybrid from 2019
The Volvo chief executive, said: “This
announcement marks the end of the solely
combustion engine-powered car.”
China sets target for EV quota starting 2019
China sees an opportunity to leapfrog to the global
stage. It's about making China more green and
building up a global player. The government sees a
disruptive opportunity
EV in Norway are maintaining their incredible
35% market share of new sales.
The country has the goal of 100% of new car sales
to be zero-emission vehicles starting in 2025.
By 2030 all cars in the Netherlands must be
emission free
The Dutch government confirms plan to ban
new petrol and diesel cars by 2030
3
Inductive charging
roads Tesla car & truck
U.S.A.
Batteries /
Storage
Electric mobility
Most Advanced Countries Technology
Electric public
transportation
Electric aircraft
Electric scooter
Norway
Japan China
Catenary wires
Communication
technology
Infrastructure
Charging stations /
Super chargers
Artificial intelligence
Autonomous
driving
In combination with the growth of renewables energies, electric mobility is
disrupting the energy and infrastructure industry from all perspectives
High voltage
highways
4
Global EV sales - China EV sales had a record August 2017, up a massive
68% on August 2016. By 2040, 54% are expected to be EV sales
Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-16
Source: 1) IEA analysis based on EVI country submissions, complemented by EAFO (2017a), IHS Polk (2016), MarkLines (2017),
ACEA (2017a, 2017)and EEA (2017) 2) Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-16 Annual global light duty vehicle sales
1) 2)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ele
ctr
ic C
ar
sto
ck (
mil
lio
ns)
Others Sweden Germany France
UK Netherlands Norway Japan
China US BEV BEV + PHEV
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mil
lio
n V
eh
icle
s
EV Sales ICE Sales
54%
24%
8%
3%
43%
5
Since 2010 there is remarkable growth in the EV market and the dynamic
will intensify in the coming years by technological improvements
EV Sales Continue Robust Trend in 2017
Source: SAFE analysis based on data from HybridCars.com
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
16
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
17
Q1
Q2
Q3
Mo
de
ls A
va
ila
ble
Un
its
So
ld
Units Sold EV and PHEV Models Available (RHS)
6
Manufactures are pushing the model availabilities aggressively to sustain a
market player – EV soon cheaper than traditional cars
EV models by style and range available trough 2020
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
SUVs/Trucks
Sports Cars
Sedans
Hatchbacks
Runabouts
Small Vans
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
7
China will dominate both the market and the industry in the foreseeable
future. Having rolled out 350,000 PHEVs and BEVs in 2016
E-Mobility Index – Ranking by indicator
Source: fka; Roland Berger
0.2
1.1
1.2
1.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
0 1 2 3 4 5
Technology Index
0.9
1.7
2.5
3.9
4.5
5
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Market
0
0.7
2.5
3
3.3
5
5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Industry Index
China 1 USA 2 Germany 3
Overall Ranking
8
13 3 Dalian
Tianjin
10 12
Xian Luoyang
6 7
Nanjing Liyang
1 Ningde
5 Shenzhen
The production capacity of big lithium ion batteries doubled last year
Costs are expected to continue to erode with China in the driver seat
Manufacturing capacities of lithium ion batteries in 2017 amount to 103 GWh and are expected to triple by 2020
Source: 1) Financial Times 2017and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
4
9
Ochang
Ulsan
Nevada
Michigan
8 Poland
Top 5 Markets in 2040
China 343 GW
U.S. 200 GW
India 127 GW
Japan 62GW
Germany 30 GW
11
2
9
Evolution of battery cost and density since 2008 and future industry targets
Falling prices and increasing density is set to reinforce the renewable
energy growth - batteries are enablers for intermittent renewable energies
Source: IRENA 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2022
Ba
tte
ry e
ne
rgy d
en
sity
(W
h/L
)
Ba
tte
ry c
ost
(U
SD
/kW
h)
US DOE battery cost (PHEV) 2020 Tesla battery cost target (BEV) 2022 battery cost target (PHEV)
2022 GM battery cost target (BEV) US DOE energy density 2022 energy density target (BEV)
10
Growth of renewables in Europe is set to continue and thermal power
plants gone be replaced by renewables in combination with batteries
BNEF predicts 50% renewables penetration in Europe by 2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GW
Other Flexible Capacity
Demand Response
Utility-Scale Batteries
Small-Scale Batteries
Small-Scale PV
Solar Thermal
Other
Utility-Scale PV
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
11
Additional electricity demand from e-mobility will compensate for a decline
in efficiency gains
Gross electricity generation in TWh Peak electricity demand in GW
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040P
ea
k E
lectr
icit
y D
em
an
d i
n G
W
Gross Peak Demand
Net Peak Demand
Demand Response
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
3'000
3'500
4'000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gro
ss E
lectr
icty
G
en
era
tio
n in
TW
h
Total gross generation (incl. EVs)
Macroecnomics driven consumption
12
A fleet of 1 million EV could supply around 7 million households with power
for 24 hours with its storage capacity of 10 gigawatts
Is this how a future “pump” storage will look like?
1 Million electric vehicles
(intelligently interconnected)
=
10 GW
(power)
60 GWh
(capacity)
7 Million households
supplied for 24h
13
Therefore, electricity prices and their volatility will increase in the future
significantly
Source: 170814 Brainpool Forecast
Ectricity price volatility with prices> 100 and <= 0 EUR / MWh Electricity forecast for the EU-28 countries
0
140
2020 2030 2040 2050
Po
we
r p
ric
es
EU
-28
in
EU
R/M
Wh
Annual baseload prices EU-28
Deviation range single markets
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Nu
mb
er
of
ex
tre
me
pri
ce
s
Extreme prices < 100 EUR/MWh Extreme prices <= 0 EUR/MWh
14
Hans Poser‘s profile and contact details
Managing Director and Shareholder of Finadvice Zurich
Hans is one of the founders of Finadvice. He has over 20 years deal experience in continental
Europe and has worked on transactions with a total value of >40 bn EUR. Hans’ specialist
sector experience is utilities where he provides M&A and strategic advice.
Among many other projects, Hans
analysed European power markets for EDF and the Edison Electric Institute
helped Veolia acquire and sell various assets, including their largest investment ever
devised Swisspower’s strategy for renewable investments, helped them in their largest
acquisition and its financing
did the valuation for Axpo’s acquisition of >3000MW of wind projects
Before Finadvice, Hans was Vice President of the European Utilities Team of UBS Zurich and
Project Leader of BCG in Frankfurt. Hans graduated in engineering from TU Berlin and in
Business Administration from Toulouse Business School. He speaks German, English and
French.
Hans is a member of the advisory council of Yielco Investments and Luftmeister GmbH.
+41 788 3200 90 77
HansPoser
Hans Poser, Managing Director
Finadvice AG
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8134 Adliswil
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15
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