model-based predictive control - project mbpc•mbpcis a control algorithm based on solving an...
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Model-based Predictive Control -
project
MbPC
S.l. dr. ing. Constantin Florin Caruntu
www.ac.tuiasi.ro/~caruntuc
Predictive control based on
Diophantine equationsOutline
1. Introduction
2. Prediction model
3. Objective functions
4. Predictive control algorithm
13.01.2014
15:22
Predictive control based on
Diophantine equations
Lecture 1 - Introduction
• MbPC is a control algorithm based on solving an on-line optimal control
problem
• All the MBPC algorithms posses common elements:
- explicit use of a model to predict the process output at future time instants
(horizon)
- computation of a control sequence minimizing a cost function
- receding strategy: at each instant the horizon is displaced forwards the future
⇒ the first control signal is applied to the process.
Model
Optimizer
Past Inputs
and OutputsPredictor
Outputs
Reference
Trajectory
Future
InputsFuture
Errors
Cost
FunctionConstraints
_
+
1.1. Model based Predictive Control elements1. Introduction13.01.2014
15:22
Fig. 1. Basic structure of MPC
Fig. 2. The predictive control concept
k : current time hi : minimum prediction horizon
hc: control horizon hp: prediction horizon
future control, computed at time k
predicted values of the output
set-point
reference trajectory
dead time
k-1 k k+1 k+2 ……….. time
( )r k i+
ˆ( )y k i k+ ˆ( ), [ , ]y k i k i hi hp+ ∈
( 1 ), [1, ]u k i k i hc+ − =( )u k
( )y k
hc
futurepast
( 1 ), 1, :u k i k i hc+ − =
ˆ( ), , :y k i k i hi hp+ =
( ), , :r k i i hi hp+ =
( )w k i k+
hi hp
( ), , :w k i k i hi hp+ =
1.2. Predictive control concept1. Introduction13.01.2014
15:22
• at each current time k: the process output is predicted over the horizon [hi,hp]
- the forecast depends on past inputs, past outputs and future control scenario
• a reference trajectory , starting at , is
defined to describe how to drive the process output to the set-point
• the control sequence is computed in order to minimize
a cost function depending on the predicted control errors
• the first element is applied to the process
- at the next sampling instant all time-sequences are shifted ⇒ the whole
procedure is repeated ⇒ receding horizon strategy
{ }( ), ,w k i k i hi hp+ = ( ) ( )w k k y k=( )r k i+
{ }( 1 ), 1,u k i k i hc+ − =
{ }ˆ( ) ( ) , ,y k i k w k i k i hi hp + − + =
( )u k k
13.01.2014
15:22 1.2. Predictive control concept1. Prediction model
Model-based Predictive Control -
project
MbPC
S.l. dr. ing. Constantin Florin Caruntu
www.ac.tuiasi.ro/~caruntuc
Predictive control based on
Diophantine equationsOutline
1. Introduction
2. Prediction model
3. Objective functions
4. Predictive control algorithm
13.01.2014
15:22
Predictive control based on
Diophantine equations
Lecture 2 – Prediction model
• Real system model→ two additive sub-models:
– a process model
→ relationship between the outputs and measurable inputs of the physical
plant
– a disturbance model
→ describes a part of the measurable outputs of the physical plant which
where not included in the process model
→ gathers the effects of
» non-measurable inputs
» external disturbances
» measuring noise
» modeling errors
13.01.2014
15:22 2.1. Models2. Prediction model
• Model (“corner-stone” of MPC) able to:
- capture the process dynamics
- allow the prediction
- permit theoretical analysis{
• System model = process model + disturbance model
)(kn
)(ku )(kx )(ky
Process +
+
))(),..,1(),(),..,1(()( BA ndkudkunkxkxfkx −−−−−−=
1 1
1 1 1
process model disturbance model
( ) ( )( ) ( 1) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
dq B q C qy k u k e k x k n k
A q D q A q
− − −
− − −= − + = +144424443 144424443
B
B
A
A
nn
nn
qbqbbqB
qaqaqA
−−−
−−−
+++=
+++=
...)(
...1)(
110
1
11
1
D
D
C
C
nn
nn
qaqdqD
qcqcqC
−−−
−−−
+++=
+++=
...1)(
...1)(
11
1
11
1
(2.1.1)
(2.1.2)
13.01.2014
15:22 2.1. Models – general form2. Prediction model
• ARX model (Auto-Regressive eXogenous)
10;0,, ==⇒==≤= DCnnnnnn DCBA
)()(
1)1(
)(
)()(
11
1
keqA
kuqA
qBqky
d
−−
−−+−=
)()1()()()( 11 kekuqBqkyqA d +−= −−−
(2.1.3)
• ARIX model (Auto-Regressive Integrated eXogenous)
11 1)(,11;0,, −− −=∆==⇒==≤= qqDCnnnnnn DCBA
(2.1.4)
,)()(
1)1(
)(
)()(
11
1
keqA
kuqA
qBqky
d
∆+−=
−−
−−
)()1()()()( 11 kekuqBqkyqA d +−∆=∆ −−−
13.01.2014
15:22 2.1. Linear models2. Prediction model
• Modelul ARMAX (Auto-Regressive Moving-Average eXogenous)
(2.1.5)
10;0,, =⇒=>≤= Dnnnnnn DCBA
)()(
)()1(
)(
)()(
1
1
1
1
keqA
qCku
qA
qBqky
d
−
−
−
−−
+−=
)()()1()()()( 111 keqCkuqBqkyqA d −−−− +−=
• Modelul ARIMAX (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average eXogenous)
(2.1.6)
∆=⇒=>≤= − )(1;0,, 1qDnnnnnn DCBA
)()(
)()1(
)(
)()(
1
1
1
1
keqA
qCku
qA
qBqky
d
∆+−=
−
−
−
−−
)()()1()()()( 111 keqCkuqBqkyqA d −−−− +−∆=∆
13.01.2014
15:22 2.1. Linear models2. Prediction model
• Modelul FIR (Finite Impulse Response - Raspuns la impuls de durata finita)
• Modelul FSR (Finite Step Response)
(2.1.7)
(2.1.8)
DCnnnnn DCHBA ,,,;1;0 −== : does not exist
1
0
( ) ( 1) with for 0Hn
i i i
i
y k hu k i b h d−
=
= − − = =∑
DCnnnnn DCSBA ,,,;1;0 −== : does not exist
10 0
0 1
( ) ( 1); , 1, for 0Sn
i
i i i i
b sy k s u k i i d
b s s
−
= −
== ∆ − + ∀ ≥ =
= −∑
13.01.2014
15:22 2.1. Linear models2. Prediction model
{ }ˆ( | ), 1,y k i k i p+ =i-step ahead predictor of the system output:
Data { available measurementsfuture (postulated) control input
}..),1(..),1(),({ −− kukyky
},1),|1({ pikiku =−+
a)Diophantine equations (GPC)
b)Filtering techniques (EPSAC)
13.01.2014
15:22 2.2. i-step ahead predictor2. Prediction model
A
FqE
A
iii
−+=1
(2.2.4)
−=++=
−=++=
−
−
1;
1;
0
0
AFn
ni
En
ni
nnqffF
inqeeE
iiF
iF
iiE
iE
K
K(2.2.5)
ii
i FqAE −+=1 ii
i FqAE −−=1( , )
k→ k + i
� (ARX models)
Processes without dead time with C=D=1
Diophantine equations
0>An
For C = D = 1 (2.1.1) becomes: )()1()()()( 11 kekuqBkyqA +−= −−(2.2.1)
(2.2.1) )()1()()()( 11 ikeikuqBikyqA ++−+=+ −−(2.2.2)
)(1
)1()( ikeA
ikuA
Biky ++−+=+ (2.2.3)
⇒+ )4.2.2(]*)2.2.2[( iE )()()1()( ikeEkyFikBuEiky iii +++−+=+ (2.2.6)
13.01.2014
15:22 2.2. i-step ahead predictor2. Prediction model
ii
ii HqGBE −+= (2.2.7)
−=++=
−=++=
−
−
1;
1;
0
0
BHn
ni
Gn
ni
nnqhhH
inqggG
iiH
iH
iiG
iG
K
K
(2.2.8)
(2.2.7) =>
past future
( ) ( ) ( 1) ( 1) ( )i i i iy k i F y k H u k G u k i E e k i+ = + − + + − + +144424443 14444244443
(2.2.9)
13.01.2014
15:22
Processes without dead time with C=D=1
2.2. i-step ahead predictor2. Prediction model
Diophantine equations
[ ]{ }2)(ˆ)( ikyikyJ +−+=E
{ }{ } { }{ }
2
2 2
ˆ( ) ( 1) ( 1) ( ) ( )
ˆ( ) ( ) ( 1) ( 1) ( )
ˆ2 ( ) ( ) ( 1) ( 1) ( )
i i i i
i i i i
i i i i
J F y k H u k G u k i E e k i y k i
E e k i F y k H u k G u k i y k i
E e k i F y k H u k G u k i y k i
= + − + + − + + − + =
= + + + − + + − − + +
+ + + − + + − − +
E
E E
E
(2.2.11)
(2.2.10)
Minimizing the cost function (2.2.11) yields:
)1()()1()(ˆ −++−+=+ kuHkyFikuGiky iii(2.2.12)
13.01.2014
15:22
Processes without dead time with C=D=1
2.2. i-step ahead predictor2. Prediction model
Minimum variance prediction:
Procedure to obtain the i-step ahead predictor:
1. Compute the polynomials and of the form (2.2.5) by solving the
diophantine equation (2.2.4);
2. Knowing compute and of the form (2.2.8) by solving the
diophantine equation (2.2.7);
3. With , and known one can obtain the i-step ahead predictor using
the relation (2.2.12).
iE iF
iE iHiG
iG iHiF
Observations:
• The polynomial coefficients are the first i coefficients of the process
impulse response.
(2.2.4)*B => (2.2.13)
• The solution for becomes simple: and .
A
BFqBE
A
B iii
−+=
Substituting (2.2.10) in (2.2.13) => (2.2.14)
++= −
iii
i HA
BFqG
A
B
BEG ii = 0=iH0=Bn
iG
13.01.2014
15:22
Processes without dead time with C=D=1
2.2. i-step ahead predictor2. Prediction model
[ ][ ][ ]
ˆ ˆ ˆ( 1), , ( )
( ), , ( 1)
( ), , ( 1), ( 1), , ( )
T
T
T
A B
y k y k p
u k u k p
y k y k n u k u k n
= + +
= + −
= − + − −
y
u
s
K
K
K K
Matriceal form for the i-step ahead predictor, for :pi ,1=
[ ]ˆ, 1p= ×y
ΨsPuy +=ˆ
[ ], ( ) 1A Bn n= + ×s
[ ], 1p= ×u
=
−− 021
01
0
0
00
ggg
gg
g
pp K
K
K
P
=
−−
−−
1.0.1.0.
1.10.11.10.1
BA
BA
nppnpp
nn
hhff
hhff
KK
KKKKKKKK
KK
Ψ
(2.2.18)
(2.2.17)
(2.2.16)
(2.2.15)
(2.2.19)
(2.2.20))(][, BA nnp +×=Ψ
pp×=][, P
13.01.2014
15:22
Processes without dead time with C=D=1
2.2. i-step ahead predictor2. Prediction model
� (for FIR and FSR models)
Changes:
– diophantine equation (2.2.4) =>
–
– degree depends on i => if
degree[ ] 0 min( , ) 1, 1i ii G H H HE n i n n n i= => = − = − −
0,1 == ii FE
0=An
iH : 0H ii n H≥ =
(2.2.21)
(2.2.22)
FIR: i-step ahead minimum variance predictor
)1()(ˆ −+=+ ikBuiky
future past
ˆ( ) ( 1) ( 1)i iy k i G u k i H u k+ = + − + −1442443 14243
(2.2.7) =>
13.01.2014
15:22
Processes without dead time with C=D=1
2.2. i-step ahead predictor2. Prediction model
)()()(
)()1(
)(
)()(
11
1
1
1
keqDqA
qCku
qA
qBky
−−
−
−
−+−= (2.3.1)
0>An�
)0( =d
k→ k + i(2.3.1) )()1()( ikeDA
Ciku
A
Biky ++−+=+ (2.3.2)
DA
FqE
DA
C iii
−+= (2.3.3),( ii
i FqEDAC −+= )ii
i FqCEDA −−=
−+−=++=
−=++=
−
−
)1,max(;
1;
0
0
DACF
n
ni
E
n
ni
nninnqffF
inqeeE
i
iF
iF
i
iE
iE
K
K(2.3.4)
⇒+ )3.3.2(]*)2.3.2[( iEDA )()()1()( ikeEkyC
Fiku
C
BDEiky i
ii +++−+=+ (2.3.5)
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3. Predictors for ARMAX and
ARIMAX models2. Prediction model
(2.3.6)
(2.3.7)
(2.3.8)
(2.3.9)
[ ]{ }2)(ˆ)( ikyikyJ +−+=E
+−+++−+=
2
)(ˆ)()()1( ikyikeEkyC
Fiku
C
BDEJ i
iiE
+−−++++=
22 )(ˆ)1()()]([ ikyiku
C
BDEky
C
FikeEJ ii
iE
)()1()(ˆ kyC
Fiku
C
BDEiky ii +−+=+
(2.3.10)C
HqG
C
BDE ii
i
i −+=
1 , max( 1, 1)i i
B D CG Hn i n n n n= − = + − −
futurepast
ˆ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1)i ii
F Hy k i Gu k i y k u k
C C+ = + − + + −
1442443144424443
(2.3.11)
13.01.2014
15:22
Minimum variance prediction:
2.3. Predictors for ARMAX and
ARIMAX models2. Prediction model
Algorithm to compute the minimum variance prediction:
1. Diophantine equation (2.3.3) =>
2. Diophantine equation (2.3.10) =>
3. => predictor (2.3.11)
,iE
,iG
iF
iH
iG,iH,iF
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3. Predictors for ARMAX and
ARIMAX models2. Prediction model
(2.2.4)*C and (2.3.3)*D =>
)()1()( keAD
Cku
A
Bky +−=
• C = D = 1 (ARX)
)1()()1()(ˆ −++−+=+ kuHkyFikuGiky iii
)()1()(ˆ kyFikBuEiky ii +−+=+
• ARMAX, ARIMAX
)()1()1()(ˆ kyC
Fku
C
HikuGiky ii
i +−+−+=+
(2.3.12)
)()1()(ˆ kyC
Fiku
C
BDEiky ii +−+=+
A
FqED
A
CFqCE ii
iii
i−− +=+
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3.1. Generalized i-step
ahead predictor2. Prediction model
−−=
+−=+= −−
1
),min(1;
DCN
DCM
ini
iinnn
nninNqMCE
i
iD
• Coefficients until order :1−+ Dni
1; −=+= −DQ
ini
i nnA
RqQ
A
F
i
D
1; −=+= −DQ
ini
i nnA
RqQ
A
CFi
D
(2.3.16)
(2.3.13)
(2.3.14)
(2.3.15)
A
RqQqED
A
RNqQqM ini
ii
ii
ini
ii
iDD −−−−−− ++=
+++
• With (2.3.13) ÷ (2.3.15), (2.3.12) becomes:
iii
ii
iii
i
RRAN
QqEDQqM
=+
+=+ −−
(2.3.17)
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3.1. Generalized i-step
ahead predictor2. Prediction model
(2.3.18)
• From (2.3.13) and (2.3.17) =>
(2.3.21)
)( in
iii
ii NqQQqCEED D−− −−+=
1),max(];[ −=−−−= −DCKi
niii nnnNqQQK D
• Introducing polynomial defined by:iK
(2.3.19)
(2.3.20)ii
ii KqCEED −−=• (2.3.18) becomes:
• From (2.2.4), (2.3.3) and (2.3.20) => iii AKCFF +=
• Back to the predictor equation (2.3.9) and using (2.3.20) and (2.3.21) yields:
[ ]additional term
ˆ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( ) ( 1)ii i
Ky k i E Bu k i F y k Ay k Bu k
C+ = + − + + − −
144424443
(2.3.22)
• The additional term becomes null for the models: )1()( −= kBukAy (2.3.23)
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3.1. Generalized i-step
ahead predictor2. Prediction model
(2.3.24)
• A,B,C,D (obtained through identification), (2.3.22) becomes:
where:
(2.3.25)
(2.3.26)
• In applications:
• Using (2.2.7) the predictor equation becomes:
(2.3.27)
DCBA ˆ,ˆ,ˆ,ˆ
[ ])(ˆ)(ˆ
ˆ)()1(ˆ)(ˆ kyky
C
AKkyFikuBEiky i
ii −++−+=+
)1(ˆ
ˆ)(ˆ −= ku
A
Bky
11 1)(ˆ
)1(ˆ
−−
∆
−=∆=
==
qqD
TC
[ ]future past
additional term
ˆˆ ˆ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( ) .i
i i i
K Ay k i G u k i F y k H u k y k y k
T+ = + − + + − + −
1442443 144424443144424443
ii
ii HqGBE −+=
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3.1. Generalized i-step
ahead predictor2. Prediction model
=> (FIR)
• Observations:
0An• =
(2.3.28)
(2.3.30)
(2.3.31)
(2.2.4) =>1
0
=
=
i
i
E
F11
1
0
++−−+−− +++=
=
DT
TDD
nnnninii
i
qtqttN
Q
K
innn DTNi−−= => if => if0=iN DT nni −> 1,0 ≥∀= iNi DT nn ≤
(2.3.19) becomes: in
ii NqQK D−+=
0Dn• >
0Dn• =
[ ])(ˆ)()1(ˆ)(ˆ kykyT
KikuBiky i −+−+=+
IF 0;
IF 0 0, 1
T i i
T i
i n K N
n K i
> ⇒ = =
= ⇒ = ∀ ≥)1(ˆ)(ˆ −+=+ ikuBiky
(2.3.29)
0, ,1 ,0,0)1,1max( ≥∀≥∀≠≠⇒−−= TDiiDTFnniKQnnn
i
: (2.3.14) => iii NKQ =⇒= 0
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3.1. Generalized i-step
ahead predictor2. Prediction model
2.3.2. computationiK
(2.3.33)
(2.3.34)
(2.3.32)
• ARX: and
• ARMAX:
• ARIMAX:
001ˆ ===⇒==⇒= iiiDT NQQnnD1=T
0=iK
001ˆ ==⇒=⇒= iiD QQnD
ii NK =(2.3.13) => is computed with the last coefficients of polynomialiK Tn
iTE1ˆ 1 ( 1) and :D i iD q n Q Q−= − = ⇒ scalars
iiii QNTEQTC
q+−=⇒
=
=)1()1(
ˆ
1(2.3.18) with
(2.3.32) and (2.3.13) iii QMQ +=⇒ )1(
(2.3.19) and (2.3.33) iii NqMK 1)1( −+=⇒
(2.3.13) => is computed with the last coefficients of polynomialiN 1−Tn
iTE
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model
(2.3.19): 1),max(];[ −=−−−= −DCKi
niii nnnNqQQK D
(2.3.19):
(2.3.36)
(2.3.38)
(2.3.35)
1),max(];[ −=−−−= −DCKi
niii nnnNqQQK D
• ARIX: and
• FIR: with and
• FSR: with and
:,1,01ˆ 1iiDT QQnnqD ⇒==⇒−= −1=T
0=⇒ iN⇒= 0Tn
scalars
(2.3.18) ][ 1iii
iii NqQQqEE −− −−+=∆⇒
(2.3.13)
(2.3.19) + (2.3.36) )1(ii EK =⇒
iii QEQ +=⇒ )1(
(2.3.37)
(2.3.35));0(1 =∆=q
1)1(1cu)20.3.2(
1,01ˆ 1
=⇒===
===−= −
ii
DTA
KTEq
nnnqD1=T
1=T 1ˆ 1 identical with FIRD q −= −
[ ])(ˆ)()1(ˆ)(ˆ kykyikuBiky −+−+=+
13.01.2014
15:22 2.3.2. computationiK2. Prediction model
� if and => the last rows of are equal to zero
because if ;
� if then and .
[ ]ˆpred. with 1
additional term
ˆˆ ˆ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( )i
i i i
T D
K Ay k i G u k i F y k H u k y k y k
T= =
+ = + − + + − + −144444424444443
144424443
T
kuBkyAkc
)1(ˆ)(ˆ)(~
−−=
pi ,1=
0=Dn
(2.3.40)
(2.3.42)
(2.3.39)
(2.3.41)
• For
(2.3.27) :
{additional termˆpred. with 1
ˆ
T D= =
= + +y Pu Ψs K14243
cKK ~c=
becomes:
1)1(]~[;)](~,),(~[~ ×+=−= KK nnkckc cc Kwhere:
(2.3.43)[ ] )1(,
.0.
.10.1
+×=
= Kc
npp
n
c np
kk
kk
K
K
KK
K
KKK
K
Tnp −0=An cK
0=iK Tni >
0=== DTA nnn 0=cK 0=K
13.01.2014
15:22
2.3.3. Matriceal form of the
generalized predictor 2. Prediction model
(2.4.2)
(2.4.3)
(2.4.1)
(2.4.5)
(2.4.4)
• Minimum variance predictor: )()1(ˆˆ
)(ˆ kyT
Fiku
T
DBEiky ii +−+=+
• Process: )()1()( kkuA
Bky ξ+−=
DTBADCBA ˆ,,ˆ,ˆ,,, →
)ˆˆ( ii
i EADTqF −=(2.3.3) =>
(2.4.1) and (2.4.3) => )()ˆˆ(
)1(ˆˆ
)(ˆ ikyT
EADTiku
T
DBEiky ii +
−+−+=+
(2.4.2) and (2.4.4) => )(ˆˆ
)1(ˆ
ˆˆˆ)()(ˆ ik
T
ADEiku
A
B
A
B
T
ADEikyiky ii +−−+
−++=+ ξ
modeling error
ˆ ˆˆ ˆˆˆ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 1) ( )
ˆi iE DA E DAB B
k i y k i y k i u k i k iT A TA
ε ξ
+ = + − + = − + − + + 14243
• Prediction error:
(2.4.6)
13.01.2014
15:22
2.4. i-step ahead
predictor properties 2. Prediction model
T polynomial effect over predictions
The prediction error is influenced by the modeling errors and disturbances, through the
polynomials and :
� if then and the disturbances with the modeling errors are filtered
by
� if and
� is a factor of =>
=> the modeling errors
=> i-step ahead predictors (2.3.9) and (2.3.24) are minimum variance predictors
ˆ T D
1=iE )(kξ1=iTAD /ˆˆ
DDddBBAAkeDA
Ck ˆ,ˆ,ˆ,ˆ),()( =====ξ TCC == ˆ
;)()( ikeEik i +=+⇒ ε { } 22)( eik σε =+E
D̂∆∀= 0stε
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.4. i-step ahead
predictor properties
k k+1 k+2 k+pk+d+1
u(k+i)
y(k)
k+d
past future
)(ˆ iky +
r
w(k+i)
rpkwdkwpkydkydpkuku →+++→+++−−+ )}(),..,1({)}(ˆ),..,1(ˆ{:)}1(),..,({
• i-step ahead predictor:
1;,..,1));1(()( +≥+=−−+=+ dppdidikufiky (2.5.1)
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.5. i-step ahead predictor for
processes with dead time
1
1
−+=
−−=+=
−
−−
+−−
dnn
dinHqGBE
BH
G
didi
dii
di
di
)()1()()()( 11 kekuqBqkyqA d +−= −−−• Process:
� C=D=1
(2.5.2)
• 0>An
(2.2.6) 0)(; =→ − keBqB d1),()1()( +≥+−−+=+ dikyFdikBuEiky ii (2.5.3)
(2.5.4)
future past
ˆ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1) , 1i d i i dy k i G u k i d F y k H u k i d− −+ = + − − + + − ≥ +144424443 144424443
(2.5.5)
• The i-steap ahead minumum variance predictor becomes:
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.5. i-step ahead predictor for
processes with dead time
diidii HHGG −− →→ ;
• Matriceal form:
(2.5.6)
(2.5.7)
(2.5.8)
ΨsPuy +=ˆ[ ] [ ][ ]TBA
TT
dnkukunkyky
dpkukupkydky
)(,),1(),1(,),(
)1(,),()(ˆ,),1(ˆˆ
−−−+−=
−−+=+++=
KK
KK
s
uy
=
−−−− 021
01
0
0
00
ggg
gg
g
dpdp K
KKKK
K
K
P
−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−=
−+−−−−−
−+−
1,0,1,0,
1,10,11,10,1
dndpdpndpdp
dnn
BA
BA
hhff
hhff
KK
KK
Ψ
future past
ˆ( ) ( 1) ( 1) , 1i d i dy k i G u k i d H u k i d− −+ = + − − + − ≥ +144424443 14243
(2.5.10)(2.2.9)
• 0=An
(2.5.9)
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.5. i-step ahead predictor for
processes with dead time
(2.5.11)
(2.5.12)
(2.5.13)
:1+≥⇒ di
• (2.3.9) : )()1()(ˆ kyC
Fiku
C
BDEiky ii +−+=+
⇒→>≠ DTBADCBAnd Aˆ,,ˆ,ˆ,,,,0,0
1),()1(ˆˆ
)(ˆ +≥+−−+=+ dikyT
Fdiku
T
DBEiky ii
1),max(
1ˆˆ
ˆˆ −++=
−−=+=
−
−−+−−
TDBH
Gdididi
i
ndnnn
din
T
HqG
T
DBE
di
di
(2.5.11) and (2.5.12)
ˆ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1)i i di d
F Hy k i G u k i d y k u k
C C
−−+ = + − − + + −
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.5.1. i-step ahead generalized
predictor for processes with dead time
future pastadditional term
ˆˆ ˆ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( 1) [ ( ) ( )]i
i d i i d
K Ay k i G u k i d F y k H u k y k y k
T− −+ = + − − + + − + −
144424443 144424443144424443
(2.5.14)
(2.5.15)
(2.5.16)
⇒
• (2.3.24) :
(2.5.14) şi (2.5.4)
[ ]ˆ
ˆˆ ˆ0 ( ) ( 1) ( ) ( ) ( )ii i
K Ad y k i E Bu k i d F y k y k y k
T≠ ⇒ + = + − − + + −
)1(ˆ
ˆ)(ˆ −=
−ku
A
Bqky
d
iK
•Matriceal form:
cKK
ΨsPuKΨsPuy
c~
1ˆ:ˆ
=
==+++=
DT
[ ]T
dkuBkyAkcnkckc
Tk
)1(ˆ)(ˆ)(~;)(~,),(~~ −−−=−= Kc
(2.3.44) cK⇒
does not depend on d→ Section 2.3.1
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.5.1. i-step ahead generalized
predictor for processes with dead time
(2.6.1)
(2.6.2)
pddd Mm ≤≤≤≤0
pdidikufky mm ,1)),1(()1( +=−−+=+
)()()(
)()1(
)(
)(~
)(11
1
1
1
keqAqD
qCku
qA
qBqky md
−−
−
−
−− +−=• Process model:
dndn
BB
qbqbbqB∆−−
∆+−− +++=
~~~)(
~ 110
1K (2.6.3)
(2.6.4)mM ddd −=∆
B~
0~b mm dddd bb −−−
~~1 1
~~+−+−+ mBmB ddnddn bb
mMB ddnb −+~
Bnb
. . . . . . . . .
B 0 . . . 0 b0
. . . 0 . . . 0
•
• the dead-time considered in (2.6.2) is and not
;∆)~(grad ~ dnnB BB
+== BnB =)(grad
md d
Observations:
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.6. i-step ahead predictor for
processes with unknown dead time
(2.6.5)
(2.6.6)
)1ˆ(, ==∆+→→ DTdnndd BBm• i-step ahead predictor:
1),()1(~
)(ˆ +≥+−−+=+ mimi dikyFdikuBEiky
1
1~
−+=
−−=+=
−−
+−−
−
MBdH
mG
didi
diidnn
dinHqGBE
mi
mdi
mm
m
• Matriceal form :
[ ] [ ]
[ ]T
dkuBkyAkcdnkukunkyky
dpkukupkydky
mTMBA
Tm
Tm
)-1-(ˆ-)(ˆ)(~;)--(,),1-(),1-(,),(
)1--(,),(;)(ˆ,),1(ˆˆ
=+=
+=+++=
KK
KK
s
uy
−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−=
−−−−−−−−−−−−=
−+−−−−
−+−
−−−− − 1,0,
1,10,11,10,1
021
01
0
1,0,
0
00
MBmmAnmm
MBA
mm
dndpdpdpdp
dnn
dpdphhff
hhff
ggg
gg
g
KK
KK
K
K
K
ΨP
ΨsPuy +=ˆ(2.6.7)1),1()()1()(ˆ +≥−++−−+=+ −− mdiimdi dikuHkyFdikuGiky
mm
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.6. i-step ahead predictor for
processes with unknown dead time
1−−dqR r(k) u(k) y(k+d+1) + + y(k)
ξ (k)
Controller Process
B
A +
- )()(1
1
krBRqA
BRqky
d
d
−−
−−
+=
(2.7.1)
1 − − d q R* r ( k ) u ( k ) y ( k + d +1) + y ( k )
ξ ( k )
B
A
B
A 1 − − d q
∧ + - y ( k )
y ( k + d +1)+c(k) ∧
∧
c(k) + +
+ +
-
y ( k + d +1) ∧
−−+
+=++
− )1(ˆ
ˆ)(
)(ˆ
ˆ)1(ˆ
kuA
Bqky
kuA
Bdky
d
� Smith predictor:
(2.7.2)
13.01.2014
15:22
2.7. Comparisons with
Smith predictor 2. Prediction model
(2.7.3)
�Minumum variance i-step ahead predictor with :
(2.7.4)
)()(ˆˆ
)1(ˆ11
kyT
Fku
T
DBEdky
dd ++ +=++
1+= di
AD
BFqBE
AD
TB ddd
ˆˆ
ˆˆ
ˆˆ
ˆ11
1+−−
+ +=(2.3.3)* B̂ 1+= di
AD
BFq
AD
TBBE dd
d ˆˆ
ˆ
ˆˆ
ˆˆ 111
+−−+ −=
1 − − d q R* r ( k ) u ( k ) y ( k + d +1) + y ( k )
ξ ( k )
B
A
B
A 1 − − d q
∧ + - y ( k )
y ( k + d +1) ∧
∧
+ +
+ +
-
T
Fd 1+
c(k)
(2.7.5)
(2.7.6)
−−+
+=++
−+ )1(ˆ
ˆ)(
)(ˆ
ˆ)1(ˆ
1 kuA
Bqky
T
F
kuA
Bdky
dd
13.01.2014
15:22 2. Prediction model2.7. Comparisons with
Smith predictor