model cellular automata-markov chain for prediction of...
TRANSCRIPT
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Model Cellular Automata-Markov Chain For Prediction of Development and Land
Carrying Capacity of Settlement in Balikpapan City, East Kalimantan Province
Wahdini Safira, Astrid Damayanti, Tito Latif Indra, Muhammad Dimyati
Geography Departement, Mathematics and Natural Sciences Faculty, Universitas Indonesia
INSTRODUCTION
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CA-MC ModelLand Carrying Capacity of Settlement
Population Growth
Land Needs
LULC ChangesResearch Purpose
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Driving Factor
Height, slope, distance from the
road, river, and coastline
Data
Landsat imagery in 2008, 2014, and 2020.
Study Area
Located 116,50 BT- 117,00 BT and1,00 LS - 1,50 LS.
Study Area and Data
RESEARCH METHOD
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Calculate Land Carrying capacity
𝐷𝐷𝑃𝑚 = (𝐿𝑃𝑚/𝐽𝑃)/ 𝛼
Simulation Cellular Automata-Markov
Chain
Fuzzy overlay Driving factor
Image preprocessingand supervised classification
Calculate Population projection
𝑃𝑡= 𝑃0(1 + 𝑟)𝑡 with 𝑟 =𝑃𝑡𝑃0
1𝑡
− 1
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RESULT AND DISCUSSION - Settlement Development
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RESULT AND DISCUSSION – Prediction in 2032
RESULT AND DISCUSSION – Land Carrying Capacity
Based on land suitability
▪ DDPm = 8,45 m2/ capita.▪ DDPm >1, the carrying
capacity of settlementsis high
▪ Still able toaccommodate thesettlement increase
Based on RTRW
▪ DDPm = -0,64 m2/capita.▪ DDPm <1, the carrying
capacity of settlements islow
▪ Unable to accommodateresidents to settle.
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CONCLUSION
▪ Settlements aredeveloping rapidly
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▪ The carrying capacityof settlements basedon land suitability ishigh, whereas basedon RTRW is low▪ Develop in areas
with good physicalcondition
REFERENCES
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