model description
DESCRIPTION
Assessment of contributions to climate change: Results from CICERO UNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, 25-27 September 2002 Bård Romstad , Jan Fuglestvedt and Terje Berntsen CICERO, Norway. Model description. Simple Climate Model (SCM) (Fuglestvedt and Berntsen , 1999) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Assessment of contributionsto climate change:Results from CICERO
UNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, 25-27 September 2002
Bård Romstad, Jan Fuglestvedt and Terje BerntsenCICERO, Norway
Model description
• Simple Climate Model (SCM) (Fuglestvedt and Berntsen, 1999)
• Incorporates an energy-balance climate/up-welling diffusion ocean model developed by Schlesinger et al. (1992)
• A CO2 scheme from Joos et al. (1996)
• Lifetimes and concentration-forcing relations from IPCC TAR
• Includes 32 source gases
• Global radiative forcing is calculated for 35 components
• Global-mean ΔT and ΔSL from ocean thermal expansion (and melting of glaciers) (Schlesinger et al., 1992)
Model description (cont.)
• The model source code can be obtained by contacting
[email protected]@cicero.uio.no
Model setup for attribution calculation
SCMEmission database(CDIAC/EDGAR/
SRES)
World
OECD
REF
ASIA
ALM
World
OECD
REF
ASIA
ALM
WorldOECDREFASIAALM
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT, dSL)
Attribution calculation
Perturbation of CO2 emissions for ALM
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
TgC
CO2 World
CO2 ALM
Model input (emission perturbations)
Emission database(CDIAC/EDGAR/
SRES)
World
OECD
REF
ASIA
ALM
Model output (dT)
Attribution calculation
WorldOECDREFASIAALM
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT, dSL)
World dT and ALM deviation
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
World
ALM
World
OECD
REF
ASIA
ALM
SCM
World dT and regional deviations
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
World
OECD
REF
ASIA
ALM
Model output (all regions)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT,dSL)
Results (dT, dSL)
World dT and regional deviations (stacked)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
ALM attribution
ASIA attribution
REF attribution
OECD attribution
Total dT
Attribution calculation
Attribution calculation
n
iiw
rwr
TT
TT
1
)(
Attribution calculation (αr)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O perturbations from 1890-2000
Relative dT attribution (default case)
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
α
ALM attribution
ASIA attribution
REF attribution
OECD attribution
Attribution from CO2, CH4 and N2O, 1890-2000Attribution based on dT (emission period: 1890-2000)
40 %46 % 49 %
15 %15 % 14 %
26 %19 % 17 %
20 % 20 % 20 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Attribution based on dSL (emission period: 1890-2000)
42 % 44 % 46 %
14 % 14 % 14 %
26 % 23 % 21 %
18 % 19 % 19 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Model setup for sensitivity study
Time frame
Attribution calculation period
1890 2100
Em
issi
on s
ourc
es+s
inks
CO2
AllGHGs
All forcingagents
CO2,CH4N2O
Kyotobasket
Historical Emissions
1890
Scenario Emissions
21001950 2000
Gas
es
Time frame sensitivity
• Emission attribution periods– 1890-2000 (default)– 1950-2000– 1890-2100– 1950-2100
Time frame sensitivity (em start and end)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000Default case and range from changes in timeframe parameters
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
2000 2050 2100
Time frame sensitivity (cont.)
• Emission attribution periods– 1890-2000 (default)– 1950-2000
Timeframe sensitivity (em start only)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000Default case and range from changes in perturbation start date
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
2000 2050 2100
Scope sensitivity
• Sensitivity due to inclusion/exclusion of gases– CO2 only– CO2, CH4 and N2O (default)– Kyoto basket– (all cases with emission attribution period 1890-
2000)
Gases includedDEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000
Default case and range from changes in perturbed gases
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
2000 2050 2100
Attribution from CO2 only , 1890-2000Attribution based on dT in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (CO2 case, attribution: 1890-2000)
46 % 45 % 45 %
16 % 16 % 16 %
20 % 21 % 21 %
18 % 18 % 18 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Attribution based on dSL in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (CO2 case, attribution: 1890-2000)
49 % 47 % 47 %
15 % 15 % 15 %
19 % 20 % 20 %
17 % 18 % 18 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Attribution from CO2, CH4 and N2O, 1890-2000Attribution based on dT (emission period: 1890-2000)
40 %46 % 49 %
15 %15 % 14 %
26 %19 % 17 %
20 % 20 % 20 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Attribution based on dSL (emission period: 1890-2000)
42 % 44 % 46 %
14 % 14 % 14 %
26 % 23 % 21 %
18 % 19 % 19 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Attribution from all Kyoto-gases, 1890-2000Attribution based on dT in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (Kyotobasket, attribution: 1890-2000)
40 %47 % 50 %
15 %15 % 14 %
25 %19 % 16 %
20 % 19 % 19 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Attribution based on dSL in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (Kyotobasket, attribution: 1890-2000)
42 % 45 % 46 %
14 % 14 % 14 %
26 % 23 % 21 %
18 % 19 % 19 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2000 2050 2100
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
Source sensitivity
• Sensitivity due to exclusion of LUCF– Attribution period 1890-2000
SourcesDEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000
Default case and range from changes in included sources
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution
2000 2050 2100