Model ThinkingScott E Page

Two “Proofs”

Polya

U = {1 Blue, 1 Red}Select and return

Add a new ball that is thesame color as the ball selected

Polya in Action

Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely

P(RBBB) =

P(BBBR) =

P(RBRB) =

P(BBRR) =

Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.

P(BBBB) =

P(BBBR) =

P(50B) =

P(49B 1R) =

P(47B 3R) =

Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.

Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely

Model ThinkingScott E Page