modeling analysis of navajo reservoir operations proposed ......jan 22, 2015  · january 2015...

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January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 1 Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed Modification of Available Water Calculation for Determining Spring Peak Releases on the San Juan River 1.0 Introduction Reclamation has proposed a modification of the calculation used to determine spring peak release operations at Navajo Dam. To support this proposal, Reclamation has conducted extensive hydrologic modeling with the purpose of: Understanding the recent changes in San Juan River Basin hydrology and its effect on Navajo Operations. Calculating the releases that would potentially have been made from Navajo since 1971 under the 1999 Flow Recommendations as written. Calculating the releases that would potentially have been made from Navajo since 1971 under the Proposed Method by SJRIP (San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program) and Reclamation. Comparing the two methods and assessing changes in overall release volumes and timing, on an annual basis. Assessing the difference in resulting downstream river flows. Aid workshop participants and the SJRIP in making technical decisions for the Proposal’s implementation. 2.0 Terminology Terminology used in this report is shown below and was used for convenience in this report. Some terms used here may not apply to other outside purposes. Base Flow: Average flows through the critical habitat area along the San Juan River (from Farmington, New Mexico to Lake Powell in Utah). Daily Operations Model: Reclamation’s hydrologic model of the San Juan River Basin for daily management and operation of the reservoirs within the basin. EOWYST: End of water year storage target. This is the reservoir storage that the reservoir will be operated to begin and end each water year at, dependent on forecasting accuracy and hydrologic availability. The equivalent reservoir elevation is used interchangeably with storage in this discussion and is also referred to as the EOWYST. Modified Daily Operations Model: The Daily Operations Model, modified to test the Proposed Method. NIIP: Navajo Indian Irrigation Project Operational Spill: A planned water released through the outlet works that is in excess of the sum of the spring peak release volume and the release required to maintain the minimum target baseflow. Original Method: The method of determining available water and the spring peak release using the original 1999 Flow Recommendations.

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Page 1: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

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ModelingAnalysisofNavajoReservoirOperationsProposedModificationofAvailableWaterCalculationforDeterminingSpringPeakReleasesontheSanJuanRiver

1.0 Introduction 

Reclamation has proposed a modification of the calculation used to determine spring peak release operations at Navajo Dam.  To support this proposal, Reclamation has conducted extensive hydrologic modeling with the purpose of: 

Understanding the recent changes in San Juan River Basin hydrology and its effect on Navajo Operations. 

Calculating the releases that would potentially have been made from Navajo since 1971 under the 1999 Flow Recommendations as written. 

Calculating the releases that would potentially have been made from Navajo since 1971 under the Proposed Method by SJRIP (San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program) and Reclamation. 

Comparing the two methods and assessing changes in overall release volumes and timing, on an annual basis. Assessing the difference in resulting downstream river flows. 

Aid workshop participants and the SJRIP in making technical decisions for the Proposal’s implementation. 

 

2.0 Terminology 

Terminology  used  in  this  report  is  shown  below  and was  used  for  convenience  in  this  report.  Some terms used here may not apply to other outside purposes.  

Base Flow: Average flows through the critical habitat area along the San Juan River  (from Farmington, New Mexico to Lake Powell in Utah).  

Daily  Operations  Model:  Reclamation’s  hydrologic  model  of  the  San  Juan  River  Basin  for  daily management and operation of the reservoirs within the basin. 

EOWYST:  End  of  water  year  storage  target.  This  is  the  reservoir  storage  that  the  reservoir  will  be operated  to  begin  and  end  each water  year  at,  dependent  on  forecasting  accuracy  and  hydrologic availability.   The equivalent  reservoir elevation  is used  interchangeably with storage  in  this discussion and is also referred to as the EOWYST. 

Modified Daily Operations Model: The Daily Operations Model, modified to test the Proposed Method. 

NIIP: Navajo Indian Irrigation Project 

Operational Spill: A planned water released through the outlet works that is in excess of the sum of the spring peak release volume and the release required to maintain the minimum target baseflow. 

Original Method:   The method of determining  available water  and  the  spring peak  release using  the original 1999 Flow Recommendations. 

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Proposed Method: The method of determining available water and  the  spring peak  release using  the proposed method by the SJRIP and Reclamation. 

SPR: Spring Peak Release 

TBF: Target Base Flow. The SJRIP recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area along the San Juan River (from Farmington, New Mexico to Lake Powell in Utah).  This is calculated as a weekly average of the minimum of the lower 3 of 4 USGS gages.  Uncontrolled Spill:  Use of the uncontrolled spillway.  An undesirable condition.  WY: Water Year. A 12 month period ending September 30 of the designated water year.  

3.0 Navajo Inflow Hydrology 

The inflow into Navajo Reservoir has decreased significantly in recent years. While the hydrology used to 

develop the Flow Recommendations and the Navajo Biologic Opinion include the wet decade of the 

1980’s and pre‐dam conditions, Navajo has often received below average inflow since 1999, when the 

Flow Recommendations were finalized.   Forecasts in the basin and across the southwest indicate the 

likelihood of continued below average hydrology in the future. 

Though the SJRIP Flow Recommendations have only been in place since 1999, the hydrology used in the 

analyses consists of observed daily inflow data into Navajo Reservoir for water years (WY) 1971 through 

2013.   An additional subset of the last 15 years (since 1999) was analyzed because of its significance 

both hydrologically and programmatically. 

Figure 1 is a plot of annual water year inflows into Navajo Reservoir. The median inflow is shown for the 

entire 42‐year record (1971‐2013), as well as for the more recent, and much drier, 15‐years of record 

(1999‐2013). 

The more recent range of hydrologic data, from 1999‐2013, had a median inflow into Navajo of 690,000 

af/year annually, compared with 850,000 af annually since 1971.  The repeated years of lower hydrology 

over the last decade has not allowed the reservoir to adequately recover from large spring releases, and 

the risk of shortage to users has increased.  It is important to consider the more recent subset of 

hydrologic data because climatologic forecasts indicate that this dry pattern of hydrology is likely to 

continue.  Though not represented in this study, WY2014 was yet another dry year for the San Juan 

River Basin, only receiving slightly more inflow into the reservoir than 2013.  

 

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Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013).  

 

4.0 Comparison of Original and Proposed Methodologies   

4.1 Original Method: 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations for determining Available Water and SPRs 

The 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations Chapter 8 gives detailed guidance on recommended hydrograph conditions  in  the  San  Juan  River  and  recommended  Reservoir Operating  Rules  that  are  designed  to achieve these hydrograph conditions.   

The Recommended Reservoir Operating Rules use a Decision Tree to determine the appropriate SPR for each year, based on forecast inflow and releases.  The volume of water that is used to walk through this decision tree is called the Available Water.  Under the Original  Method, the Available Water is calculated using the following equation: 

 

In this equation, t = time of calculation, TBF = target base flows, NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation project. Carryover storage is based on a Level of Development in the basin, as shown in Table 8.4 (page 8‐13) of the 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations  

Simply  stated,  this equation  states  that  the  current  storage  in  the  reservoir, plus  the  forecast  inflow, minus  the  forecast  releases  and  evaporation,  minus  diversions  to  NIIP,  minus  a  carryover  storage volume, is the volume of water available for a SPR this year.   

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The Carryover Storage  is based on the Level of Development  in the basin, as described  in Table 8.4 of the 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations.  The Level of Development is the minimum carryover necessary that the reservoir would need in storage in order to meet demands for one additional year.   

The Available Water  is then walked through the Decision Tree (Figure 2). The Decision Tree flow chart uses a combination of Available Water, the occurrence of perturbations (based on the number of storm‐event days occurring over the previous year), the possibility of spill, and the size and frequency of SPRs in  recent  years.    If  appropriate,  the Decision  Tree may  result  in  a  recommendation  that  the  SPR  be reduced or skipped, even when there is sufficient Available Water, with the goal of increasing storage in the reservoir for a potentially larger SPR the following year. 

The volumes in Figure 2 correspond to specific hydrographs that range from 1‐week at 5,000 cfs to a full hydrograph that lasts for a month.  (It will later be important to note that slight modifications have been made by the SJRIP to these hydrographs since the original report, including a reduced ramping rate and base release volume, resulting in slightly different volumes than those represented in Figure 2.) 

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Figure 2. Flow chart of Navajo Dam operating rules for a 5,000 cfs peak release. From 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations. 

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4.2 Proposed Method: Reclamation and SJRIP’s proposal for determining Available Water and SPRs 

Reclamation’s proposal involves a slight modification to the Available Water calculation that is currently in the Flow Recommendations. This modification is a reflection of the impact recent hydrology has had on the basin, reservoir supply, and shortage risk, and is an attempt to provide a level of insurance against the threat of shortages to the water supply under expected future conditions.  Having this insurance against shortage will increase the likelihood that the target base flows can be met, even in a sustained and serious drought. 

Rather than using a carryover storage that represents a certain level of development in the basin, as laid out in Table 8.4 of the Flow Recommendations, Reclamation is suggesting using an annual End of Water Year Storage Target (EOWYST). 

The EOWYST is the reservoir storage target on September 30th, which is the conclusion of each water year.  If the reservoir is operated to begin and end each water year at the same elevation, then operations are based on the year‐to‐year hydrology, rather than speculating on the hydrology of future years.  This method is also more consistent with the accuracy of long‐term water supply forecasts, which typically have a sharp decline in forecast skill beyond a few months. 

With this change, the Available Water Calculation becomes: 

 

In this equation, t = time of calculation, TBF = target base flows, NIIP = Navajo Indian Irrigation project, EOWYST = End of Water Year Storage Target. 

The new Available Water calculation would be used  in the Decision Tree to determine the appropriate SPR for the year. However, this new method negates the need to  look back and reduce or skip SPRs  in certain years, as suggested in the Decision Tree. These actions are designed to save up water for a larger release  in  the  following  year.    By  utilizing  an  EOWYST,  and  therefore  operating  the  reservoir  on  an annual basis, the need for such predictive actions is unnecessary.  This method mimics the actual annual hydrologic conditions in the basin. 

Questions posed for hydrologic modeling 

What is the difference between the Original and Proposed methods?  

How will Navajo’s releases change, both the SPR, and the base flow release? 

Will this increase or decrease the overall release from the reservoir? By how much?  

How would release timing change?  

Are the flow recommendations more likely or less likely to be met with the Proposed Method?  

What affect do different EOWYST’s have on the Available Water calculation?  

What affect do different EOWYST’s have on release type and timing?  

What would be  the most  conservative EOWYST with  regard  to  the possibility of  a multi‐year drought or shortage?  

Or conversely, with regard to spill?   

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5.0 Description of Model and Rules 

Reclamation’s San  Juan River Basin Daily Operations Model  (Daily Operations Model) was used as  the basis for the hydrologic modeling effort. The Daily Operations Model includes the entire San Juan River Basin, including upper basin reservoirs and operations, and high elevation stream gages (Figure 3).  It is used  in forecasting operations of Navajo and resulting river flows on a day‐to‐day basis and  is used  in Reclamation’s 24‐month study.  The model was altered and updated with new inputs and rules for the purposes  of  testing  the  Proposed  Method  and  comparing  it  with  the  Original  Method  from  an operational standpoint. 

 

Figure 3. Daily Operations Model for the San Juan River Basin used for realtime daily forecasting and operations. 

For this modeling effort, the Daily Operations Model was modified to only include Navajo Reservoir, the 

Animas River, and the San Juan River from the release point at Navajo to its confluence with the Animas 

River, and downstream through the critical habitat reach (Figure 4).  As such it is referred to as the 

“Modified Daily Operations Model”. 

Appendix B contains a  full printout of  the Riverware Model  rulesets and a copy of  the model will be provided upon request. 

 

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Figure 4. Modified Daily Operations Model used for comparisons in daily operation between Original Method and 

Proposed Method. 

Inputs to the Modified Daily Operations Model include the following 

a) Flows: Observed historic flow in the Animas River, historic observed inflow into Navajo.  

b) Losses: Observed diversions from NIIP for 2012 were used for each year under the Original 

and Proposed Methods.  The historic 75% exceedance statistical diversion in the river was 

used, based on river flow and time of year.  The 75% exceedance was chosen to be 

conservative, and to align more closely with higher water user take and drier conditions.   

c) EOWYST: Each model run used a single EOWYST for all years.  This was the main parameter 

varied with each model run for comparison purposes.  The EOWYST ranged from 6000 ft to 

6080 ft in the modeling runs. The reservoir was modeled to end each water year at the 

designated EOWYST.  

d) SPRs: SPR Tables are based on the hydrographs described in the 1999 Flow 

Recommendations. The prescribed SPRs include 3 day ramps up and down (as approved by 

the SJRIP), except in the case of the Full Hydrograph, which has its original full ramps.  The 

hydrograph volumes are as follows (total volume including base): 

a. 1‐week at 5,000 cfs with 3‐day ramps up and down: 90,843 af  

b. 2‐weeks at 5,000 cfs with 3‐day ramps up and down: 150,347 af 

c. 3‐weeks at 5,000 cfs with 3‐day ramps up and down: 229,686 af 

d. Full Hydrograph, 3‐weeks at 5,000 cfs with full ramps: 418,512 af  

The rules and priority order in the Modified Daily Operations Model follow the SJRIP Recommended Reservoir Operating Rules (1999 Flow Recommendations, Chapter 8) except where noted. Riverware will fire the rules at each time step in the order specified.  An exhaustive list of the rules is provided in Appendix B.  The rules pertinent to this discussion, listed in priority, are described below.  

1. Set release from Navajo to 350 cfs (2006 Reclamation’s ROD, goal minimum release). 2. Increase the release, if necessary, to meet the minimum TBF (Minimum TBF is 500 cfs). 3. Determine what volume of water over the EOWYST will be left at the end of the water year.  

This is the volume available for a SPR.   4. Choose the maximum possible SPR from the Decision Tree and SPR tables based on this 

Available Water volume. 

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5. After SPR inserted, remaining available water evacuated through Operational Spill procedures in the following order: 

a. Adding a Nose to the SPR i. If the SPR chosen is a Full Hydrograph, evacuate as much remaining Available 

Water as possible by first adding a nose to the SPR, and extending it as far forward as March 1st.    

ii. If the SPR chosen was less than a Full Hydrograph, do not add a nose, and skip to option b. 

b. Increase the Target Baseflow. The baseflow will be increased up to a maximum of 1,000 cfs. 

c. Conduct a Fall Spike. A fall spike (high magnitude, short duration) may be released after September 1st. 

(Note that in the 1999 Flow Recommendations, the order of priority for increasing the target baseflow and conducting a fall spike are reversed.  However, due to operational safety considerations, Reclamation typically would increase the target baseflow first to keep the reservoir at a safe level, as fall spike season does not begin until well into monsoon season.) 

The model rules operate Navajo Reservoir releases based on meeting the current SJRIP target base flows. Navajo releases make up the difference in flow that the Animas River cannot provide.  Navajo has the ability to release between 250 cfs and 5,000 cfs. The model rules release the minimum necessary to meet the 500 cfs target base flow.  When the base flow exceeds 1000 cfs, the release is reduced by the amount necessary to stay within the target range, down to a minimum release.  

Modified Daily Operations Model limitations: 

a. No Animas Peak Timing b. Forecasting error cannot be represented when using known values c. Weekend changes, maintenance, etc. cannot be represented d. Target Baseflow is based on Four Corners gage, not 3‐gage average e. Losses are based on historic probabilities, not water rights. f. This is not the baseline model! This is the realtime operations model, used to show 

comparisons between the two methods.  

   

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6.0 Model Runs, Output and Analysis 

In  this  section  the  results  of  the  modeling  analyses  described  in  Section  5  will  be  presented  and discussed. Appendix A contains complete tabulated output from the modeling. 

6.1 Historic Re‐operation Comparison from 1971‐2013 

A reoperation of Navajo Reservoir for 1971‐2013 was performed to determine the quantity of water that would be available for SPRs, had the reservoir been operated under the Original Method and under the Proposed Method.  

Within  the  modeling  of  the  Proposed  Method,  a  range  of  EOWYST’s  were  modeled  to  show  the advantages  and disadvantages of  each.    For  comparison, where  applicable,  the Original Method was modeled  alongside  the Proposed Method.    The modeling  effort was  also divided  into  two hydrology subsets‐ 1971‐2013 (42 years), and the much drier and more recent subset of 1999‐2013 (15 years).  

The resulting operations are discussed by parameter below.  Each parameter is discussed in terms of the total volume for the model run. This is to simplify discussion of the effects of varying the EOWYST and comparisons to the Original Method, where applicable. For a breakdown of the results by water year, see Appendix A.   

Total Annual Available Water 

Total available water is simple result of the Available Water calculation. This number under the Proposed Method should remain relatively steady for each EOWYST, the only difference being in the evaporation.  The total 42‐year volume ranged from 17,895,000 af for the highest EOWYST to 18,740,000 af for the lowest EOWYST, a difference of only 4%. This variance is due to the difference in reservoir evaporation, which varies with open surface area.   

However, this Total Available Water number is not wholly applicable on its own. Because this number does not take into effect the possibility of shortage or spill, it can be misleading when trying to decide on an appropriate EOWYST.  The Total Annual Available Water is useful in demonstrating how overall hydrology and release from the reservoir will not change with EOWYST, even though the timing and type of release will be refined in later discussion. 

Because the Total Available Water calculation under the Original Method uses Level of Development rather than the EOWYST, it cannot be compared here.  However, products of the Available Water calculation under the Original and Proposed Methods (SPR volumes, Spill and Shortage volumes, etc) will be compared and discussed in the following pages. 

SPR Volume 

The total SPR volume similarly changes only 4% from the highest EOWYST (9,910,000 af) to the lowest EOWYST (10,262,000 af). Again, this difference is likely due to the difference in evaporation.  Using the Original Method, the total SPR is 800,000 af less than the Proposed Method. 

Because looking at SPR volumes can be less than intuitive, the SPRs were also classified by “rank”. A 1‐week SPR was given a value of 1. A 2‐week SPR was given a value of 2. A 3‐week SPR was given a value of 3, and a full SPR was given a value of 4. If there was no SPR chosen, it was given a value of 0. (Note, however, that under the Proposed Method,  just because there was not enough volume for a SPR, there 

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still may have been some volume available for augmentation efforts that would have been available.) These “ranks” were totaled for the entire 1971‐2013 record and compared by EOWYST.   

The resulting rank totaled 100 for the highest EOWYST to 104 for the lowest EOWYST.  The higher EOWYSTs had lower overall rank (again, we look to evaporation as the main difference). The Original Method, which followed the Decision Tree (including “look back years”) resulted in a total rank of 92. Figure 5 compares the SPRs calculated under the Original and Proposed Methods for comparison.   

 

Figure 5. SPRs under Original and Proposed Method. 

(Note that in Figure 5, the Actual SPR released cannot be directly compared to the modeling runs because of the several modeling caveats listed in Section 5. Additionally, the modeling runs use NIIP’s 2012 diversion for each year under both Original and Proposed Methods, as well as a typical 75% exceedance probability loss through the river reach. This loss is based on a combination of time of year and river flows resulting from the modeled operations.) 

Figure 6 shows the frequency of each type of release under the Original and Proposed Methods.  Under the Proposed Method, we see more long‐duration releases, and fewer 1‐week releases. Under the Proposed Method, we have a higher number of “0” releases (no release), however, as mentioned before, under the Proposed Method some volume may still be available and released for habitat purposes. 

 

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Figure 6. Distribution shows an increase in high duration SPR's and decrease in 1‐week SPR's with proposed method. Also an increase in 0‐release years, but many of these 0‐release years would have some volume of release available for other purposes. 

Operational Spill 

Because the aim of setting an EOWYST is to operate the reservoir to end at a certain level each year, any Available Water remaining after the SPR was calculated was evacuated through Operational Spill.  From highest to lowest EOWYST, the difference in total Operational Spill volume remained 4% due to evaporation.  The Original Method resulted in an average of 900,000 af less Operational spill over the course of 42 years (or about 20k per year).  However, note that much of this Operational Spill would actually be available to the SJRIP for habitat augmentation, or some other purpose, and would be declassified as Operational Spill when used in this manner.   

Because not all Operational Spill is the same, it was broken down into its components of SPR Nose, TBF increase, and Spike Release.  The Original Method showed much higher volumes of Fall Spike, and slightly lower SPR Nose volumes than the Proposed Method.  The Original Method showed zero total volume of increased TBF. This is because the 1999 SJRIP Flow Recommendations prioritizes the fall spike over an increase in TBF, as mentioned earlier.  

EOWYST 

The reservoir is unable to be operated to hit its mark (the EOWYST) perfectly every year. If the Available Water calculation results in a negative number (i.e. inflows are less than outflows), then no SPR will be 

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made, and the storage at the end of the water year may be less than the desired EOWYST.  Unfavorable hydrology resulted in storage less than the desired EOWYST 10 ‐ 11 times between 1971‐2013, depending on the EOWYST.  

The September 30th storage was also greater than the EOWYST 1‐2 times (again, depending on EOWYST). The September 30th storage might be greater than the EOWYST if the total allowed operational spill does not evacuate enough water by September 30th. 

This calculation was not made for the Original Method, as there is no EOWYST under that method. 

Total Outlet Works Release 

The total outlet works release over 1971‐2013 is virtually the same across all EOWYSTs. The difference, again, is in evaporation. There is also virtually no difference when compared to the Original Method. The same volume of water, overall, passes through the reservoir no matter what method is chosen. The difference lies in the type of release, size and timing. 

Shortage 

Shortages were shown in the Proposed Method when the reservoir elevation passed below 5990 ft. At this point, the model passed inflow (representing a shortage) and turned off the NIIP diversion.  Shortage occurred at lower EOWYSTs for one of two reasons: 

1. Low hydrology year (or succession of years) combined with a low EOWYST.  This is the primary concern and the most likely reason for shortage.   Annual inflow was less than the user demands.  Shortage calculations for low hydrology years put a lower limit of 6050 ft on the EOWYST.  The Original Method modeling results show the reservoir coming very close, but never entering a shortage under historic hydrology.  This makes sense, as the reservoir has, in reality, forecast a shortage twice, but not yet entered one.  

2. Very high hydrology year, combined with a low EOWYST.  It was surprising to realize that a shortage could occur even in a very high hydrology year. In fact, the modeling shows that it is entirely possible to have a full SPR in the same year as a shortage.    Because the aim of the EOWYST is to start and end the water year at the same elevation, the model will first “dig a hole” to accommodate a large inflow forecast. If the starting EOWYST is too low, and the hole that must be dug is very large, the model can dig its way into a shortage in early spring before snow has even begun to melt.   While Reclamation would not actually dig the reservoir into a shortage in the spring time, this “Wet Shortage” first occurs at EOWYST of 6020 ft. Because this is lower than the previously set minimum EOWYST of 6050 ft, the first cut of the minimum EOWYST recommendation stands at 6050 ft.     

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Uncontrolled Spill 

Despite all efforts to evacuate extra volume through operational spill, it is still possible to require the spillway when using a higher EOWYST.  Use of the spillway is not a desirable operation for many reasons. Besides the uncontrollable nature, it can also introduce non‐native fish into the river system. At an EOWYST of 6070, the model begins to use the spillway.  Spill calculations based on 1971‐2013 put an upper limit of 6070 ft on the EOWYST under the Proposed Method.   

Available Water minus Spill and Shortage (i.e. Optimized Available Water) 

The upper limit of 6070 ft and the lower limit of 6050 ft were then refined into 2‐ft increments to optimize the Available Water by EOWYST.  This “sweet spot” was calculated to eliminate all possibility of shortage and spill when using historic hydrology (Figure 7). 

 

Figure 7.  Total shortage and spill volumes for 1971‐2013 are shown along with the Optimized Available Water. Optimized Available Water subtracts the shortage and spill volumes from the Available Water calculation. 

The 2‐ft refinement shows that choosing an EOWYST of 6052 ft maximizes Available Water while eliminating the occurrence of shortage or spill in the modeling for 1971‐2013. This should be the minimum EOWYST considered.  The safe upper limit for the EOWYST is 6068 ft to avoid any uncontrolled spill.  At this point, the only difference in the Optimized Available Water lies in evaporative loss. Lower EOWYST’s will lose less evaporative volume than higher EOWYSTs due to the reservoir surface area.  This loss is very minor though, and should not be a major factor in deciding on an EOWYST. 

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It is important to note that while the min and max EOWYSTs are the same for the more recent 15 years of hydrologic data (because the last 15 years are merely a subset of the last 42), a trend towards higher risk of shortage is apparent.  Note that in Figure 8, the Optimized Available Water trend has shifted significantly to the right, towards the higher EOWYSTs. With continued dry spells, choosing a higher EOWYST would add a significant factor of safety to potential shortages while having a very minor effect (evaporative loss) on the Optimized Available Water.  

 

 Figure 8.  Total shortage and spill volumes for the last 15 years of data, 1999‐2013, are shown along with the Optimized Available Water for that time frame.  When compared to the last 42 years of data in the previous figure, the pattern shifts to the right towards higher EOWYSTs.  

Downstream River Flows 

Flow  Recommendation  statistics  in  the  San  Juan  River  at  Four  Corners  were  calculated  for  both methods.   The results of modeling using the Proposed Method with EOWYST of 6060 ft (chosen  in the middle of  the  recommended  range) was compared  to  the modeling using  the Original Method.   Note that the model used here is NOT the baseline model. The results of this calculation are for comparison purposes only.  

Tables 1 and 2  show  the Flow Recommendation Statistics  comparison. Figure 9 plots  these  statistics. Overall there were no changes for the highest flow target of 10,000 cfs.  However, under the Proposed 

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Method,  the  overall  frequency  with  which  most  of  the  flow  targets  were  met  increased  slightly.  Exceptions include the lower durations for lower flow targets.  

 Table 1. Flow Recommendation Statistic Frequency under Original Method using 

 Daily Operations Model 

Original  Frequency (# years target met / 42 yrs) 

Days  10,000 cfs  8,000 cfs  5,000 cfs  2,500 cfs 

1  28%  44%  72%  95% 

5  21%  40%  72%  93% 

10  2%  30%  51%  91% 

15  0%  26%  49%  77% 

20     19%  49%  65% 

30     2%  42%  56% 

40        33%  42% 

50        23%  42% 

60        16%  37% 

80        9%  19% 

 Table 2. Flow Recommendation Statistic Frequency under Proposed Method using 

 Daily Operations Model 

Proposed  Frequency (# years target met / 42 yrs) 

Days  10,000 cfs  8,000 cfs  5,000 cfs  2,500 cfs 

1  28%  51%  70%  93% 

5  21%  44%  70%  86% 

10  2%  33%  65%  84% 

15  0%  28%  58%  77% 

20     23%  58%  70% 

30     0%  47%  58% 

40        40%  49% 

50        35%  47% 

60        30%  40% 

80        23%  37% 

 

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Figure 9. Comparison of Flow Statistics under Original (dotted line) and Proposed (solid line) Methods for 1971‐2013. Typically shows a slight increase in frequency  in the event durations for each flow target. Exceptions include the lower durations (1‐15 days) for lower flow targets.   

 

6.2 5‐Year Drought Simulation 

One of the main advantages of the proposed changes to the Available Water Calculation by using an EOWYST is to protect the target base flows from shortage in a multi‐year drought.   But the question remains, “How much insurance against shortage will various EOWYST’s provide?” For the 5‐year drought simulation, the hydrology was broken into two sets: The past 42 years of hydrologic data (1971‐2013), and the past 15 years of hydrologic data (1999‐2013Statistics performed on each hydrologic range yielded a set of “drought scenarios”.  The following hydrologic inflow scenarios were repeated for 5 years continuously, simulating varying degrees of a multi‐year drought: 

2002 Observed Volume (minimum observed into Navajo) for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 154,411 af) 

90% Exceedance Volume (1999‐2013), or past 15 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 431,206 af) 

90% Exceedance Volume (1971‐2013), or past 42 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 469,342 af) 

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75% Exceedance Volume (1999‐2013), or past 15 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 479,192 af) 

75% Exceedance  Volume (1971‐2013), or past 42 years, for Navajo Reservoir Inflow and Animas at Farmington (WY inflow volume at Navajo Reservoir of 602,158 af) 

The analysis assumed each of these hydrologic conditions occurred for five years in a row.  The simulation ran under the Proposed Method under the full range of EOWYSTs. No SPRs were made, as the Proposed Available Water calculation resulted in a negative number under these drought scenarios; rather the model rules calculated only the minimum releases required to meet the existing target base flows.  Full diversion to NIIP (2012) was assumed each year.   

The reservoir storage fell with each subsequent year, as the inflows were less than the releases required to meet target base flows.   As expected, the probability of shortage increases each year, and shortage sharing would be implemented much sooner with a lower starting reservoir elevation. Additionally, the simulation shows a shortage much more quickly when analyzing the most recent 15 years of hydrologic data, as opposed to the past 42 years. See Figure 10. 

 

Figure 10. The number of years of storage that can be expected from Navajo Reservoir under repeating hydrologic regimes and varying initial reservoir elevations.

As seen in Figure 10, the speed with which a shortage is realized increases with a decreasing starting reservoir elevation.  It is important to note, however, that the hydrologic conditions of the past 15 years are much drier than the historical average. The model shows the reservoir entering shortage much 

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faster under the 75% exceedance condition of the past 15 years, than the 75% exceedance condition of the last 42 years.  Ten of the last fifteen years have had below‐average hydrologic conditions.   

Also note that a starting reservoir elevation of 6018.8 ft, which corresponds to approximately 900,000 af in the reservoir, results in 1 year of carryover storage under the 75% and 90% exceedance inflow volumes from 1971‐2013.  This corresponds to the Biologic Opinion minimum carryover storage volume and reservoir elevation of 6018.8 ft.  However, one additional year of these inflows will result in a shortage.  

While the likelihood of seeing the exact same five years of hydrology in a row is obviously nearly impossible, the notable trend of drying conditions, moving the optimal EOWYST towards the higher end of the range, is obvious from this figure.  In this modeling, avoiding a shortage for at least 3 years under each of these hydrologic scenarios (with the exception of the WY2002 scenario) is successful when the EOWYST is higher than 6063 ft.  When combined with the efforts from the first modeling, the recommended EOWYST range is refined to 6063 ft – 6068 ft (Figure 11). 

 

Figure 11. Superimposed on the previous Figure 10 are the shaded bounds from the Section 6.1 Re‐Operation Analysis. The red line signifies the minimum EOWYST recommended under this analysis, as it is the minimum EOWYST above the breakpoint, insuring against shortage for one additional year.   

 

 

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7.0   Summary of Findings 

 

Hydrology in the San Juan River Basin has been increasingly below‐average over the last 15 years and that trend is forecast to continue.  A shortage has been forecast at Navajo twice in the last fifteen years and risk of shortage is likely to increase. 

Reclamation is proposing an End of Water Year Storage Target (EOWYST) as a modification to the Original Method’s Available Water Calculation. This EOWYST would replace the Carryover Storage parameter in the original equation, and negate the need for lookback years in the Decision Tree.  This method increases insurance against shortage by passing annual hydrology over an EOWYST.  In multi‐year droughts, a higher EOWYST banked will ensure the TBF will be met for longer.  

As compared to the Original Method, the Proposed Method would likely result in a higher number of 2‐week, 3‐week, and Full SPRs, and a decrease in the number of 1‐week SPRs.   Additionally, the Proposed Method results in a higher number of 0‐week (no SPR) years. However, in years when the Available Water is less than that required for a 1‐week SPR, that volume would be available for some other use by the SJRIP (i.e. increased TBF, a modified or shorter SPR, moving sediment, etc). 

Based on modeling that re‐operates Navajo Reservoir from 1971‐2013, choosing an EOWYST within the range of 6052 ft‐6068 ft will minimize the risk of shortage and spill over historic inflow conditions. 

Based on the modeling that assesses the risks associated with various EOWYST’s under a multi‐year drought, a minimum EOWYST of 6063 ft is recommended to increase long‐term insurance against a shortage. 

   

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Appendix A 

Modeling Result Tables 

Modeling results broken out by water year are shown in the next several tables. A finer resolution 

analysis (2‐ft intervals) was also performed and that data is available upon request.   

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Total Avail Water (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 110,699        109,361        107,999        106,476        104,785        102,805        100,688        98,347          95,809          452,491       

1972 (17,737)         (18,819)         (19,938)         (21,317)         (22,897)         (24,733)         (27,482)         (29,486)         (29,235)         354,284       

1973 1,360,914     1,358,501     1,355,928     1,352,952     1,349,651     1,345,850     1,341,037     1,336,802     1,334,408     1,644,173    

1974 (7,124)           (8,090)           (9,143)           (10,390)         (11,819)         (13,614)         (15,250)         (17,045)         (19,064)         489,819       

1975 830,367        827,118        823,469        820,229        815,052        812,492        810,679        808,658        806,489        1,349,729    

1976 288,778        287,890        286,988        285,806        284,560        283,244        281,722        279,991        277,998        611,706       

1977 (180,957)       (182,299)       (183,664)       (185,067)       (186,548)       (188,129)       (190,748)       (194,045)       (196,018)       311,452       

1978 (24,616)         (27,376)         (30,152)         (33,044)         (36,200)         (39,595)         (44,323)         (49,851)         (54,355)         464,802       

1979 1,411,111     1,406,719     1,402,150     1,397,471     1,392,609     1,387,338     1,380,600     1,372,928     1,365,445     1,809,833    

1980 914,686        909,036        903,051        896,821        890,157        882,982        880,782        878,353        875,979        1,391,881    

1981 20,261          18,853          17,337          15,819          14,093          12,577          10,877          9,102             6,867             517,253       

1982 698,982        697,935        696,860        695,558        693,992        692,333        689,946        687,551        685,357        1,185,424    

1983 981,843        980,898        979,760        978,501        977,036        975,508        973,876        972,058        970,122        1,486,556    

1984 681,610        680,554        679,240        677,770        675,994        674,275        672,006        669,694        667,233        1,172,082    

1985 1,459,536     1,458,490     1,457,323     1,456,021     1,454,563     1,453,031     1,451,484     1,449,803     1,446,903     1,966,693    

1986 1,256,830     1,254,520     1,252,014     1,249,065     1,245,858     1,242,408     1,238,661     1,234,591     1,230,307     1,767,811    

1987 1,338,317     1,337,268     1,336,035     1,334,688     1,333,261     1,331,714     1,330,112     1,328,412     1,326,270     1,845,333    

1988 224,550        222,947        221,432        220,267        218,813        217,296        215,482        212,891        210,839        710,501       

1989 236,939        235,143        234,279        233,146        231,153        229,791        227,741        225,711        223,549        729,911       

1990 90,887          87,460          85,249          83,395          81,260          80,668          77,739          74,045          70,706          589,079       

1991 483,945        483,012        481,983        480,658        479,243        477,689        476,093        474,268        472,298        972,656       

1992 568,337        567,397        566,373        565,031        563,630        562,040        560,444        558,556        556,562        1,026,215    

1993 1,025,758     1,024,797     1,023,680     1,022,452     1,020,991     1,019,458     1,017,815     1,015,999     1,014,012     1,541,341    

1994 464,413        463,122        461,679        459,742        457,577        455,015        452,390        449,299        445,888        927,842       

1995 1,076,259     1,075,211     1,074,032     1,072,778     1,071,373     1,069,826     1,068,169     1,066,300     1,064,327     1,581,310    

1996 (98,927)         (100,009)       (101,105)       (102,236)       (103,693)       (105,239)       (106,952)       (108,806)       (110,914)       399,050       

1997 751,545        749,104        746,631        743,954        740,816        737,273        733,438        729,216        724,564        1,227,958    

1998 363,656        362,742        361,593        360,272        358,848        357,313        355,733        353,898        352,031        880,273       

1999 740,547        739,403        738,238        736,964        734,762        733,124        730,487        728,531        726,408        1,230,820    

2000 (48,542)         (49,532)         (50,537)         (51,690)         (53,098)         (54,591)         (56,221)         (57,965)         (59,971)         479,031       

2001 349,254        347,013        344,563        341,830        338,711        335,245        331,552        327,448        322,991        757,185       

2002 (380,655)       (383,076)       (384,740)       (386,881)       (389,022)       (390,532)       (393,323)       (396,013)       (399,385)       121,604       

2003 (491,568)       (495,752)       (499,528)       (503,724)       (507,908)       (511,487)       (516,094)       (520,755)       (526,552)       (2,220)           

2004 (305,458)       (311,405)       (317,051)       (323,346)       (329,320)       (334,596)       (341,012)       (347,787)       (355,941)       180,309       

2005 657,956        650,782        643,677        635,861        628,155        620,978        612,543        603,439        592,866        1,034,075    

2006 100,652        99,592          98,488          97,040          95,472          93,746          91,963          89,942          87,741          600,100       

2007 522,701        521,758        520,618        519,258        517,838        516,285        514,698        512,868        510,781        1,010,954    

2008 764,606        763,585        762,267        760,816        759,186        757,453        755,640        753,570        751,428        1,290,389    

2009 249,862        248,724        247,365        246,019        244,445        242,754        240,972        239,114        237,115        749,075       

2010 246,961        245,421        244,167        242,777        241,086        239,487        237,774        235,773        233,689        733,859       

2011 128,571        127,348        126,231        124,961        122,961        121,241        119,565        117,695        115,696        630,473       

2012 (31,422)         (32,528)         (34,016)         (35,250)         (36,882)         (38,879)         (41,131)         (43,389)         (45,995)         478,034       

2013 (74,130)         (77,359)         (80,948)         (84,720)         (88,429)         (92,989)         (99,689)         (105,172)       (110,486)       335,836       

Total  Af 18,740,197  18,655,457  18,569,881  18,476,733  18,372,114  18,268,856  18,150,485  18,024,539  17,894,760  39,036,982  

Proposed  Method EOWYST (ft)WaterYr

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WY Operational Spill (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 35,414          33,128          30,760          28,195          25,075              21,513          18,012          13,745          147,510        ‐                

1972 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

1973 1,271,331     1,265,682     1,259,580     1,252,722     1,245,003        1,235,408     1,224,159     1,214,155     1,208,378     733,721       

1974 15,139          13,972          12,715          11,266          9,917                8,735             6,765             4,637             2,275             6,322            

1975 451,664        447,331        442,618        438,389        431,249            425,980        420,470        416,372        412,063        579,174       

1976 83,137          81,364          80,393          78,437          76,632              74,859          71,235          67,199          64,347          115,716       

1977 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

1978 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

1979 1,354,182     1,348,877     1,343,358     1,337,708     1,331,835        1,325,469     1,310,538     1,292,983     1,276,042     898,804       

1980 540,669        534,582        528,309        521,575        514,187            506,716        503,784        500,611        497,846        483,138       

1981 35,860          33,476          31,200          29,264          26,553              24,776          21,332          18,376          14,184          12,631         

1982 291,829        290,336        288,847        287,264        285,037            282,608        279,686        276,712        273,768        274,579       

1983 607,881        606,747        605,891        604,514        603,613            601,645        600,236        598,329        596,553        576,400       

1984 283,930        282,399        280,880        279,293        277,255            275,360        272,628        270,421        267,180        261,570       

1985 1,412,670     1,411,406     1,409,997     1,408,423     1,406,662        1,404,812     1,402,945     1,400,914     1,397,411     981,818       

1986 1,030,071     1,024,790     1,017,185     1,010,594     1,001,539        993,702        983,446        974,259        962,861        857,596       

1987 1,219,176     1,216,276     1,213,302     1,210,027     1,206,490        1,202,678     1,198,450     1,193,870     1,188,901     933,990       

1988 116,350        111,760        109,319        108,212        106,713            104,119        101,892        98,366          95,626          128,409       

1989 27,116          24,294          22,593          20,418          16,713              117,141        113,852        109,091        104,596        83,301         

1990 3,932             131,497        127,418        123,412        116,923            115,855        108,999        100,050        92,215          84,199         

1991 83,494          82,241          80,570          78,960          76,847              74,905          72,600          69,852          66,966          58,154         

1992 169,502        168,159        166,844        165,340        163,423            161,301        158,923        156,403        153,519        297,521       

1993 654,967        654,126        652,804        651,792        650,011            648,361        646,816        644,559        642,629        627,139       

1994 64,997          63,222          61,188          58,764          55,691              52,442          48,435          44,272          39,838          202,943       

1995 702,456        700,943        699,808        698,271        696,415            694,330        691,886        689,809        686,997        669,327       

1996 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

1997 342,158        339,273        336,388        333,455        330,024            326,072        321,690        316,912        311,676        297,521       

1998 262,416        260,252        257,636        254,661        253,082            249,535        245,159        240,936        236,590        153,691       

1999 335,745        333,704        332,091        330,448        327,808            325,594        322,111        319,650        316,375        297,521       

2000 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

2001 220,137        216,888        211,699        205,448        197,745            190,452        181,278        172,865        163,517        264,988       

2002 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

2003 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

2004 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

2005 254,888        247,621        240,402        232,453        224,577            216,793        207,770        198,386        187,351        111,829       

2006 35,635          32,972          29,214          24,413          18,287              12,640          5,905             148,423        142,505        106,729       

2007 118,494        117,322        116,027        114,664        112,990            111,247        109,380        107,256        104,793        89,381         

2008 368,469        367,268        365,891        364,209        362,123            359,951        357,453        354,558        351,435        382,076       

2009 48,144          46,732          44,864          42,904          40,833              38,250          35,547          32,793          29,593          164,287       

2010 32,143          29,748          27,456          25,457          21,909              19,303          16,180          12,169          7,710             239,469       

2011 74,461          72,754          71,328          69,078          66,026              63,712          61,302          57,814          54,157          135,377       

2012 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

2013 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                     ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                 ‐                

Total 12,548,457  12,591,142  12,498,575  12,400,027  12,279,188      12,266,265  12,120,865  12,116,746  12,097,405  11,109,320 

WaterYrProposed  Method EOWYST (ft)

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WY Spike Volume (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 17,363        16,293        15,164        13,780        12,219        10,483        8,935          6,826          55,434        ‐              

1972 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1973 275,299      272,563      269,568      266,306      262,573      257,569      252,133      247,244      244,360      154,547     

1974 15,139        13,972        12,715        11,266        9,917          8,735           6,765          4,637          2,275          6,322         

1975 37,935        36,916        35,924        35,000        33,181        30,664        27,095        25,146        23,277        ‐              

1976 22,510        21,647        20,859        20,130        18,908        17,823        16,496        14,281        12,898        115,716     

1977 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1978 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1979 297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      290,727      282,439      274,537      214,506     

1980 39,064        38,623        37,959        37,519        36,901        35,840        35,135        34,436        33,859        161,816     

1981 17,441        16,338        15,213        14,060        12,825        11,546        10,031        8,801          6,782          12,631       

1982 17,076        16,531        16,067        15,729        14,899        13,954        13,310        12,752        11,957        274,579     

1983 44,972        44,786        44,643        44,526        44,243        43,805        43,193        42,693        42,419        255,078     

1984 22,356        21,893        21,556        21,286        20,735        20,258        19,578        19,020        18,169        261,570     

1985 297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521      297,521     

1986 167,751      165,139      162,369      159,146      155,615      151,678      147,419      142,778      137,821      173,298     

1987 250,435      248,802      247,317      245,668      243,854      241,911      239,619      237,091      234,710      249,693     

1988 30,583        28,788        28,079        27,395        26,688        25,868        24,914        23,637        22,564        128,409     

1989 20,617        19,404        18,478        17,318        15,379        43,887        41,484        39,600        37,098        83,301       

1990 3,893          42,900        39,954        37,850        34,608        33,091        29,242        24,082        20,590        84,199       

1991 20,445        20,072        19,430        19,088        18,334        17,891        17,183        16,203        15,233        58,154       

1992 19,068        18,666        18,368        18,148        17,568        17,039        16,257        15,625        14,736        297,521     

1993 53,625        53,355        53,170        52,982        52,672        52,133        51,369        50,941        50,638        47,965       

1994 18,252        17,780        17,201        16,736        15,862        15,226        13,898        12,893        11,940        202,943     

1995 44,709        44,245        43,868        43,582        43,131        42,593        41,805        41,594        40,754        211,146     

1996 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1997 15,535        15,064        14,695        14,451        14,199        13,758        13,209        12,632        11,991        297,521     

1998 119,747      118,556      117,163      115,595      113,856      111,964      109,290      107,045      104,711      153,691     

1999 19,514        18,661        18,186        17,820        17,369        16,779        15,951        15,412        14,265        297,521     

2000 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2001 99,016        96,514        93,839        90,392        87,303        83,522        79,412        75,102        70,212        264,988     

2002 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2003 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2004 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2005 15,089        14,850        14,738        14,606        14,363        13,791        12,993        12,658        12,137        111,829     

2006 23,789        22,406        19,980        17,089        13,297        9,662           4,800          39,793        36,531        106,729     

2007 14,524        14,293        14,140        14,028        13,774        13,529        13,141        12,846        12,416        89,381       

2008 20,801        20,599        20,443        20,234        19,814        19,320        18,686        17,961        17,072        213,481     

2009 29,802        29,425        28,791        28,056        27,223        26,199        25,140        23,978        22,647        164,287     

2010 14,868        13,603        12,410        11,345        9,917          8,610           6,938          4,974          2,875          239,469     

2011 39,183        38,145        37,319        36,289        34,743        33,314        31,834        30,265        28,658        135,377     

2012 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2013 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

Total 2,145,444  2,155,870  2,124,647  2,092,462   2,051,014  2,037,485   1,975,500  1,952,905  1,943,087  5,365,188 

WaterYrProposed  Method EOWYST (ft)

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January 2015 

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WY Nose Volume (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1972 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1973 684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298            684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      579,174     

1974 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1975 387,802      385,379      382,673      380,249      376,925            376,840      376,667      376,278      375,506      579,174     

1976 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1977 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1978 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1979 684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298            684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298     

1980 464,013      458,332      452,574      446,700      440,609            433,646      431,570      429,354      426,084      321,322     

1981 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1982 274,091      273,154      272,134      270,897      269,518            268,055      265,790      263,370      261,227      ‐              

1983 530,821      529,739      528,574      527,250      525,879            524,452      523,045      521,352      519,199      321,322     

1984 257,510      256,413      255,039      253,590      251,784            250,108      247,794      245,526      243,116      ‐              

1985 684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298            684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298     

1986 684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298            684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298     

1987 684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298            684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298      684,298     

1988 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1989 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1990 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1991 61,261        60,327        59,298        57,978        56,564              55,012        53,416        51,595        49,625        ‐              

1992 145,124      144,196      143,120      141,802      140,379            138,813      137,210      135,331      133,354      ‐              

1993 574,780      573,630      572,393      571,027      569,501            567,919      566,315      564,383      561,721      579,174     

1994 41,843        40,595        39,218        37,392        35,385              33,066        30,706        27,930        24,863        ‐              

1995 625,550      624,425      623,176      621,766      620,225            618,675      617,076      614,828      612,853      458,182     

1996 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1997 326,178      323,766      321,246      318,557      315,374            311,866      308,034      303,835      299,243      ‐              

1998 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1999 315,159      314,069      312,935      311,657      309,367            307,744      305,087      303,171      301,042      ‐              

2000 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2001 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2002 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2003 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2004 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2005 233,971      226,753      219,667      211,868      204,151            197,294      189,241      180,170      169,629      ‐              

2006 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2007 99,988        99,043        97,901        96,544        95,121              93,572        91,980        90,160        88,076        ‐              

2008 337,435      336,294      335,066      333,721      332,276            330,802      329,234      327,655      325,953      168,595     

2009 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2010 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2011 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2012 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2013 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

Total 8,097,015  8,067,602   8,036,504   8,002,487   7,964,546        7,929,350   7,894,653   7,856,426   7,812,979  5,744,132 

WaterYrProposed  Method EOWYST (ft)

Page 26: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page26 

 

   

WY TBF Increase Volume (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 18,051        16,835        15,596        14,415        12,856              11,030        9,078           6,919           92,076        ‐              

1972 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1973 311,735      308,822      305,714      302,119      298,132            293,541      287,729      282,614      279,721      ‐              

1974 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1975 25,927        25,037        24,021        23,140        21,143              18,476        16,708        14,948        13,280        ‐              

1976 60,627        59,716        59,534        58,306        57,724              57,036        54,739        52,919        51,449        ‐              

1977 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1978 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1979 372,364      367,059      361,540      355,890      350,016            343,651      335,514      326,246      317,208      ‐              

1980 37,591        37,627        37,776        37,355        36,677              37,230        37,079        36,821        37,903        ‐              

1981 18,419        17,139        15,987        15,203        13,728              13,230        11,301        9,575           7,402          ‐              

1982 663              651              646              639              619                    599              586              589              584              ‐              

1983 32,087        32,223        32,673        32,739        33,492              33,388        33,998        34,284        34,936        ‐              

1984 4,064          4,093           4,285           4,416           4,736                4,994           5,256           5,874           5,895          ‐              

1985 430,852      429,588      428,179      426,605      424,844            422,994      421,127      419,096      415,593      ‐              

1986 178,022      175,353      170,519      167,150      161,627            157,727      151,730      147,184      140,743      ‐              

1987 284,443      283,176      281,688      280,061      278,338            276,469      274,534      272,481      269,893      ‐              

1988 85,767        82,972        81,240        80,817        80,025              78,251        76,978        74,729        73,062        ‐              

1989 6,499          4,890           4,115           3,100           1,334                73,254        72,367        69,491        67,498        ‐              

1990 39                88,597        87,464        85,561        82,315              82,764        79,757        75,968        71,625        ‐              

1991 1,788          1,842           1,842           1,894           1,949                2,001           2,001           2,054           2,107          ‐              

1992 5,310          5,298           5,356           5,390           5,476                5,449           5,457           5,446           5,428          ‐              

1993 26,562        27,142        27,242        27,783        27,839              28,309        29,132        29,234        30,269        ‐              

1994 4,901          4,848           4,768           4,636           4,444                4,150           3,831           3,449           3,034          ‐              

1995 32,196        32,273        32,763        32,922        33,059              33,062        33,004        33,387        33,390        ‐              

1996 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1997 445              443              446              447              450                    448              447              446              442              ‐              

1998 142,669      141,696      140,473      139,066      139,226            137,571      135,869      133,890      131,879      ‐              

1999 1,071          974              970              971              1,073                1,070           1,073           1,067           1,068          ‐              

2000 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2001 121,121      120,374      117,861      115,056      110,442            106,930      101,866      97,762        93,304        ‐              

2002 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2003 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2004 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2005 5,828          6,018           5,996           5,978           6,063                5,709           5,536           5,559           5,585          ‐              

2006 11,846        10,566        9,234           7,325           4,990                2,979           1,105           108,630      105,974      ‐              

2007 3,982          3,985           3,986           4,092           4,095                4,145           4,259           4,250           4,301          ‐              

2008 10,232        10,375        10,381        10,254        10,033              9,830           9,533           8,943           8,410          ‐              

2009 18,343        17,307        16,072        14,848        13,609              12,051        10,407        8,816           6,946          ‐              

2010 17,275        16,144        15,046        14,112        11,992              10,693        9,242           7,195           4,835          ‐              

2011 35,278        34,609        34,010        32,788        31,283              30,397        29,468        27,548        25,499        ‐              

2012 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2013 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

Total 2,305,998  2,367,671   2,337,424   2,305,077   2,263,628        2,299,429   2,250,712   2,307,414   2,341,338  ‐              

WaterYrProposed  Method EOWYST (ft)

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January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page27 

 

   

SPR Volume (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 90,843          90,843        90,843        90,843        90,843              90,843        90,843        90,843        ‐               90,843       

1972 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               90,843       

1973 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1974 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1975 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1976 229,686        229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686            229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686      ‐              

1977 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1978 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               90,843       

1979 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1980 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1981 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1982 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1983 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1984 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1985 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1986 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1987 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1988 150,347        150,347      150,347      150,347      150,347            150,347      150,347      150,347      150,347      90,843       

1989 229,686        229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686            150,347      150,347      150,347      150,347      150,347     

1990 90,843          ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1991 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1992 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      229,686     

1993 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1994 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      229,686     

1995 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1996 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1997 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

1998 229,686        229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686            229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686     

1999 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

2000 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               90,843       

2001 229,686        229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686            229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686      ‐              

2002 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2003 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2004 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               90,843       

2005 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

2006 90,843          90,843        90,843        90,843        90,843              90,843        90,843        ‐               ‐               ‐              

2007 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

2008 418,512        418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512            418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512      418,512     

2009 229,686        229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686            229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686      90,843       

2010 229,686        229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686            229,686      229,686      229,686      229,686      ‐              

2011 90,843          90,843        90,843        90,843        90,843              90,843        90,843        90,843        90,843        ‐              

2012 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               90,843       

2013 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               90,843       

Total 10,268,083  ########## ########## ########## 10,177,280      ########## ########## ########## 9,916,295  9,190,215 

Water Yr

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January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page28 

 

   

SPR Rank

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 1                     1                   1                   1                   1                        1                   1                   1                   ‐               1                 

1972 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               1                 

1973 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1974 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1975 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1976 3                     3                   3                   3                   3                        3                   3                   3                   3                  ‐              

1977 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1978 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               1                 

1979 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1980 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1981 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1982 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1983 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1984 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1985 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1986 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1987 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1988 2                     2                   2                   2                   2                        2                   2                   2                   2                  1                 

1989 3                     3                   3                   3                   3                        2                   2                   2                   2                  2                 

1990 1                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1991 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1992 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  3                 

1993 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1994 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  3                 

1995 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1996 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

1997 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

1998 3                     3                   3                   3                   3                        3                   3                   3                   3                  3                 

1999 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

2000 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               1                 

2001 3                     3                   3                   3                   3                        3                   3                   3                   3                  ‐              

2002 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2003 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐              

2004 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               1                 

2005 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

2006 1                     1                   1                   1                   1                        1                   1                   ‐               ‐               ‐              

2007 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

2008 4                     4                   4                   4                   4                        4                   4                   4                   4                  4                 

2009 3                     3                   3                   3                   3                        3                   3                   3                   3                  1                 

2010 3                     3                   3                   3                   3                        3                   3                   3                   3                  ‐              

2011 1                     1                   1                   1                   1                        1                   1                   1                   1                  ‐              

2012 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               1                 

2013 ‐                 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐                     ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐               1                 

Total 104                103              103              103              103                    102              102              101              100              92               

Water Yr

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January 2015 

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WaterYr Observed

1971 600,000              

1972 508,796              

1973 1,815,900          

1974 502,758              

1975 1,299,518          

1976 778,367              

1977 326,907              

1978 667,950              

1979 1,872,385          

1980 1,318,206          

1981 524,751              

1982 1,155,562          

1983 1,410,850          

1984 1,137,821          

1985 1,890,702          

1986 1,615,559          

1987 1,770,261          

1988 713,684              

1989 726,425              

1990 614,951              

1991 934,288              

1992 1,019,281          

1993 1,453,798          

1994 918,743              

1995 1,504,531          

1996 411,955              

1997 1,306,094          

1998 850,239              

1999 1,196,976          

2000 460,081              

2001 890,761              

2002 154,411              

2003 399,846              

2004 691,605              

2005 1,418,373          

2006 605,485              

2007 974,027              

2008 1,220,105          

2009 756,806              

2010 750,480              

2011 638,095              

2012 490,431              

2013 471,626              

Total 40,769,391        

Total WY Inflow (af)

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Total WY Outlet Works Release (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 357,816        356,346        354,833        353,034        351,012        348,888            347,362        344,699        338,685        337,050       

1972 263,156        263,156        263,156        263,156        263,156        263,156            263,156        263,156        263,156        346,363       

1973 1,537,122     1,534,397     1,531,612     1,528,373     1,524,672     1,520,760        1,515,389     1,510,565     1,507,757     1,301,770    

1974 276,614        275,447        274,190        272,742        272,325        271,143            269,172        267,045        264,683        268,730       

1975 1,023,165     1,021,250     1,019,294     1,017,535     1,014,270     1,011,099        1,008,640     1,006,052     1,003,231     1,168,878    

1976 520,287        519,077        517,843        516,369        514,721        512,973            510,901        508,641        506,053        353,008       

1977 263,671        263,671        263,671        263,671        263,671        263,671            263,671        263,671        263,671        270,133       

1978 257,717        257,717        257,717        257,717        257,717        257,717            257,717        257,717        257,717        341,214       

1979 1,560,357     1,560,357     1,560,357     1,560,357     1,560,357     1,560,357        1,553,563     1,545,903     1,538,809     1,469,194    

1980 1,093,298     1,087,319     1,081,125     1,074,634     1,067,608     1,060,023        1,057,333     1,054,434     1,051,601     1,052,862    

1981 275,593        273,843        272,048        270,285        268,392        266,564            265,068        263,364        260,706        268,134       

1982 896,423        894,941        893,458        891,882        890,071        887,960            885,050        882,073        879,312        881,918       

1983 1,162,832     1,161,623     1,160,492     1,159,096     1,157,693     1,155,846        1,154,377     1,152,469     1,150,393     1,144,169    

1984 878,793        877,340        875,736        874,127        871,890        869,799            866,878        864,127        860,967        869,949       

1985 1,564,786     1,564,786     1,564,786     1,564,786     1,564,786     1,564,786        1,564,786     1,564,786     1,564,786     1,549,587    

1986 1,432,837     1,430,225     1,427,455     1,424,232     1,420,701     1,416,764        1,412,505     1,407,864     1,402,907     1,425,364    

1987 1,518,002     1,517,327     1,516,335     1,514,691     1,512,882     1,510,945        1,508,965     1,507,466     1,505,093     1,504,035    

1988 457,940        456,882        454,869        453,166        451,897        449,744            447,838        444,917        442,497        446,939       

1989 488,049        487,217        486,113        484,743        482,463        478,338            476,876        475,814        473,311        470,630       

1990 341,023        336,507        334,096        331,952        329,378        328,352            324,831        320,599        316,782        340,418       

1991 680,560        679,268        677,879        676,363        674,515        672,558            670,378        668,079        665,517        669,027       

1992 765,366        764,056        762,702        761,214        759,353        757,399            755,182        752,841        750,175        743,107       

1993 1,204,403     1,203,093     1,201,757     1,200,395     1,198,638     1,196,750        1,194,588     1,192,370     1,189,878     1,199,904    

1994 662,717        661,385        660,020        658,426        656,562        654,552            652,351        649,959        647,225        651,673       

1995 1,253,153     1,251,728     1,250,307     1,248,823     1,247,106     1,245,254        1,243,112     1,240,874     1,238,309     1,238,908    

1996 264,393        264,393        264,393        264,393        264,393        264,393            264,393        264,393        264,393        264,418       

1997 949,052        946,168        943,280        940,346        936,912        932,963            928,582        923,805        918,573        904,860       

1998 603,323        602,147        600,768        599,215        598,309        596,438            595,345        593,108        590,784        607,492       

1999 938,229        936,597        934,989        933,345        930,724        928,785            925,600        923,145        920,381        904,860       

2000 261,966        261,966        261,966        261,966        261,966        261,966            261,966        261,966        261,966        345,286       

2001 591,253        589,699        587,028        584,631        581,736        577,954            574,515        570,278        566,222        499,202       

2002 287,027        287,027        287,027        287,027        287,027        287,027            287,027        287,027        287,027        291,965       

2003 260,110        260,110        260,110        260,110        260,110        260,110            260,110        260,110        260,110        261,161       

2004 257,705        257,705        257,705        257,705        257,705        257,705            257,705        257,705        257,705        341,617       

2005 857,809        850,353        843,154        835,223        827,270        819,831            810,979        801,571        790,509        730,474       

2006 349,337        347,914        346,464        344,835        342,814        340,703            338,309        335,193        332,603        340,205       

2007 723,239        722,064        720,768        719,299        717,622        715,829            713,848        711,733        709,219        707,320       

2008 967,451        966,165        964,877        963,300        961,389        959,455            957,189        954,732        952,016        955,204       

2009 512,783        511,716        510,205        508,613        506,974        504,873            502,690        500,492        497,909        493,740       

2010 485,796        484,211        482,515        480,960        479,450        477,612            475,414        472,939        470,316        479,245       

2011 386,393        384,954        384,123        382,561        380,400        378,719            377,127        375,235        373,195        375,362       

2012 267,167        267,167        267,167        267,167        267,167        267,167            267,167        267,167        267,167        350,558       

2013 261,097        261,097        261,097        261,097        261,097        261,097            261,097        261,097        261,097        354,563       

Total 29,959,808   29,900,411  29,839,489   29,773,560   29,698,900   29,618,025      29,528,750   29,431,182  29,324,414  29,520,495  

Water Yr

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No.Days Short (Red indicates Type 2 shortage (Wet Shortage))

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1972 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1973 45             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1974 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1975 82             28             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1976 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1977 99             42             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1978 234          205          ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1979 83             65             17             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1980 7               ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1981 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1982 89             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1983 40             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1984 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1985 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1986 22             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1987 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1988 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1989 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1990 54             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1991 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1992 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1993 22             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1994 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1995 77             52             19             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1996 37             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1997 268          27             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1998 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

1999 121          93             44             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2000 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2001 132          ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2002 187          108          70             33             ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2003 365          365          365          365          111          ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2004 366          366          366          242          194          7               ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2005 195          157          121          ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2006 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2007 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2008 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2009 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2010 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2011 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2012 ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

2013 273          ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

Total 2,798       1,508       1,002       640          305          7               ‐           ‐           ‐           ‐             

Water Yr

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No Days Spilled

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              149             ‐             

1972 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              74               ‐             

1973 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              44               202             ‐             

1974 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              58               ‐             

1975 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1976 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              34               ‐             

1977 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1978 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1979 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              57               86               ‐             

1980 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              16               ‐             

1981 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1982 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              3                 ‐             

1983 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              143             ‐             

1984 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              42               10              

1985 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              76               288             49              

1986 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              13               200             ‐             

1987 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              181             332             38              

1988 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              58               ‐             

1989 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              23               146             ‐             

1990 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              45               ‐             

1991 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              94               ‐             

1992 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              60               13              

1993 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1994 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              61               ‐             

1995 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              5                 ‐             

1996 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1997 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1998 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              25               164             ‐             

1999 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2000 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              18               ‐             

2001 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              116             33              

2002 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2003 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2004 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2005 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              6                 ‐             

2006 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              69               ‐             

2007 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              57               244             ‐             

2008 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              86               2                

2009 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              10               101             ‐             

2010 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              54               5                

2011 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              57               ‐             

2012 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              55               ‐             

2013 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

Total ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              486             3,066         150            

Water Yr

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Vol Shorted (af) (Red indicates Type 2 shortage (Wet Shortage))

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1972 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1973 446,281      ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1974 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1975 727,339      277,686      ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1976 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1977 79,010        30,144        ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1978 162,446      142,314      ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1979 823,140      644,628      168,595      ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1980 69,421        ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1981 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1982 271,041      ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1983 359,008      ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1984 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1985 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1986 197,355      ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1987 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1988 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1989 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1990 37,488        ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1991 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1992 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1993 217,190      ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1994 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1995 631,636      464,132      183,471      ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1996 28,033        ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1997 721,185      267,769      ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1998 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

1999 586,150      449,058      175,240      ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2000 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2001 91,636        ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2002 163,456      108,613      67,914        26,277     ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2003 260,110      260,110      260,110      260,110   78,789     ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2004 257,705      257,705      257,705      168,106   134,678  4,860   ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2005 183,910      108,992      84,000        ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2006 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2007 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2008 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2009 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2010 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2011 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2012 ‐               ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

2013 196,635      ‐               ‐               ‐            ‐           ‐       ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

Total 6,510,177  3,011,151  1,197,035  454,493   213,467  4,860   ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐             

Water Yr

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January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page34 

 

   

Vol Spilled (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               129,935      ‐             

1972 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               52,675        ‐             

1973 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              39,465        362,473      ‐             

1974 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               40,264        ‐             

1975 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

1976 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               180,099      ‐             

1977 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

1978 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

1979 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              96,456        257,514      ‐             

1980 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               11,107        ‐             

1981 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

1982 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               3,372          ‐             

1983 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               292,488      ‐             

1984 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               145,017      138,843    

1985 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              142,934      1,133,182  56,628      

1986 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              35,306        386,719      ‐             

1987 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              355,310      1,407,243  118,413    

1988 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               141,421      ‐             

1989 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              71,008        271,735      ‐             

1990 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               42,527        ‐             

1991 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               354,613      ‐             

1992 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               339,635      137,256    

1993 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

1994 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               360,437      ‐             

1995 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               35,107        ‐             

1996 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

1997 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

1998 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              136,959      376,515      11,008      

1999 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

2000 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               12,496        ‐             

2001 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               321,378      29,157      

2002 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

2003 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

2004 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

2005 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               59,504        ‐             

2006 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               61,120        ‐             

2007 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              186,112      586,720      77,355      

2008 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               533,127      101,157    

2009 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              71,207        285,096      ‐             

2010 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               240,099      13,884      

2011 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               39,730        ‐             

2012 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               38,182        ‐             

2013 ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐               ‐               ‐             

Total ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              ‐              1,134,756  8,501,532  683,702    

Water Yr

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January 2015 

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Optimized Available Water (af)

Original

6000 6010 6020 6030 6040 6050 6060 6070 6080 Method

1971 110,699            109,361            107,999            106,476            104,785            102,805          100,688            98,347              (34,126)             452,491           

1972 (17,737)             (18,819)             (19,938)             (21,317)             (22,897)             (24,733)           (27,482)             (29,486)             (81,911)             354,284           

1973 914,633            1,358,501        1,355,928        1,352,952        1,349,651        1,345,850      1,341,037        1,297,337        971,935            1,644,173       

1974 (7,124)               (8,090)               (9,143)               (10,390)             (11,819)             (13,614)           (15,250)             (17,045)             (59,328)             489,819           

1975 103,029            549,432            823,469            820,229            815,052            812,492          810,679            808,658            806,489            1,349,729       

1976 288,778            287,890            286,988            285,806            284,560            283,244          281,722            279,991            97,899              611,706           

1977 (259,966)          (212,443)          (183,664)          (185,067)          (186,548)          (188,129)        (190,748)          (194,045)          (196,018)          311,452           

1978 (187,062)          (169,690)          (30,152)             (33,044)             (36,200)             (39,595)           (44,323)             (49,851)             (54,355)             464,802           

1979 587,970            762,091            1,233,555        1,397,471        1,392,609        1,387,338      1,380,600        1,276,472        1,107,931        1,809,833       

1980 845,265            909,036            903,051            896,821            890,157            882,982          880,782            878,353            864,871            1,391,881       

1981 20,261              18,853              17,337              15,819              14,093              12,577            10,877              9,102                6,867                517,253           

1982 427,941            697,935            696,860            695,558            693,992            692,333          689,946            687,551            681,985            1,185,424       

1983 622,835            980,898            979,760            978,501            977,036            975,508          973,876            972,058            677,634            1,486,556       

1984 681,610            680,554            679,240            677,770            675,994            674,275          672,006            669,694            522,216            1,033,239       

1985 1,459,536        1,458,490        1,457,323        1,456,021        1,454,563        1,453,031      1,451,484        1,306,868        313,721            1,910,065       

1986 1,059,475        1,254,520        1,252,014        1,249,065        1,245,858        1,242,408      1,238,661        1,199,285        843,588            1,767,811       

1987 1,338,317        1,337,268        1,336,035        1,334,688        1,333,261        1,331,714      1,330,112        973,102            (80,974)             1,726,919       

1988 224,550            222,947            221,432            220,267            218,813            217,296          215,482            212,891            69,417              710,501           

1989 236,939            235,143            234,279            233,146            231,153            229,791          227,741            154,703            (48,186)             729,911           

1990 53,399              87,460              85,249              83,395              81,260              80,668            77,739              74,045              28,179              589,079           

1991 483,945            483,012            481,983            480,658            479,243            477,689          476,093            474,268            117,685            972,656           

1992 568,337            567,397            566,373            565,031            563,630            562,040          560,444            558,556            216,927            888,959           

1993 808,568            1,024,797        1,023,680        1,022,452        1,020,991        1,019,458      1,017,815        1,015,999        1,014,012        1,541,341       

1994 464,413            463,122            461,679            459,742            457,577            455,015          452,390            449,299            85,451              927,842           

1995 444,622            611,078            890,561            1,072,778        1,071,373        1,069,826      1,068,169        1,066,300        1,029,220        1,581,310       

1996 (126,961)          (100,009)          (101,105)          (102,236)          (103,693)          (105,239)        (106,952)          (108,806)          (110,914)          399,050           

1997 30,360              481,335            746,631            743,954            740,816            737,273          733,438            729,216            724,564            1,227,958       

1998 363,656            362,742            361,593            360,272            358,848            357,313          355,733            216,939            (24,483)             869,265           

1999 154,397            290,345            562,999            736,964            734,762            733,124          730,487            728,531            726,408            1,230,820       

2000 (48,542)             (49,532)             (50,537)             (51,690)             (53,098)             (54,591)           (56,221)             (57,965)             (72,467)             479,031           

2001 257,618            347,013            344,563            341,830            338,711            335,245          331,552            327,448            1,613                728,028           

2002 (544,111)          (491,689)          (452,654)          (413,158)          (389,022)          (390,532)        (393,323)          (396,013)          (399,385)          121,604           

2003 (751,678)          (755,862)          (759,637)          (763,834)          (586,698)          (511,487)        (516,094)          (520,755)          (526,552)          (2,220)              

2004 (563,163)          (569,110)          (574,756)          (491,453)          (463,998)          (339,456)        (341,012)          (347,787)          (355,941)          180,309           

2005 474,046            541,790            559,677            635,861            628,155            620,978          612,543            603,439            533,362            1,034,075       

2006 100,652            99,592              98,488              97,040              95,472              93,746            91,963              89,942              26,621              600,100           

2007 522,701            521,758            520,618            519,258            517,838            516,285          514,698            326,756            (75,940)             933,598           

2008 764,606            763,585            762,267            760,816            759,186            757,453          755,640            753,570            218,301            1,189,232       

2009 249,862            248,724            247,365            246,019            244,445            242,754          240,972            167,908            (47,981)             749,075           

2010 246,961            245,421            244,167            242,777            241,086            239,487          237,774            235,773            (6,411)               719,974           

2011 128,571            127,348            126,231            124,961            122,961            121,241          119,565            117,695            75,967              630,473           

2012 (31,422)             (32,528)             (34,016)             (35,250)             (36,882)             (38,879)           (41,131)             (43,389)             (84,177)             478,034           

2013 (270,766)          (77,359)             (80,948)             (84,720)             (88,429)             (92,989)           (99,689)             (105,172)          (110,486)          335,836           

Total  Af 12,230,020      15,644,306      17,372,845      18,022,240      18,158,647      18,263,996    18,150,485      16,889,784      9,393,229        38,353,280     

Water Yr

Page 36: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page36 

Original Method Decision Tree Walkthrough

Year Avail Water Perturb? Spill? Spill Vol AvailStorage Path SPR nose

1971 452,491         no no ‐           ‐                   acghlk 1 ‐          

1972 354,284         yes no ‐           ‐                   acghlk 1 ‐          

1973 1,644,173      yes yes 750,961  407,061          acfe Full 5              

1974 489,819         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

1975 1,349,729      no yes 589,899  575,216          acfe Full 5              

1976 611,706         no no ‐           ‐                   acghlo 0 ‐          

1977 311,466         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

1978 464,802         yes no ‐           ‐                   acgk 1 ‐          

1979 1,809,832      yes yes 559,680  273,968          acfe Full 6              

1980 1,391,881      no yes 225,786  515,168          acfjimqt Full 3              

1981 517,253         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

1982 1,185,424      no yes 60,445    529,476          acfjimp Full ‐          

1983 1,486,556      yes yes 319,045  675,390          acfjimqp Full 3              

1984 1,172,082      yes yes 47,637    563,376          acfjimqp Full ‐          

1985 1,966,693      yes yes 798,257  669,976          acfe Full 6              

1986 1,767,811      no yes 597,067  759,112          acfe Full 6              

1987 1,845,333      yes yes 676,462  842,308          acfe Full 6              

1988 710,501         yes no ‐           ‐                   acgk 1 ‐          

1989 729,911         yes yes 3,349       493,253          acfjimp 2 ‐          

1990 589,076         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

1991 972,656         yes yes 105,870  572,504          acfjie Full ‐          

1992 1,026,215      yes yes 208,540  528,528          acfjimqp 3 ‐          

1993 1,541,341      yes yes 633,352  532,400          acfe Full 5              

1994 927,842         no yes 165,613  506,207          acfjimqp 3 ‐          

1995 1,581,310      no yes 693,281  571,709          acfe Full 4              

1996 399,050         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

1997 1,227,958      yes yes 311,553  384,646          acfjimp Full ‐          

1998 880,273         yes yes 98,986    585,766          acfjimqp 3 ‐          

1999 1,230,820      yes yes 310,820  570,492          acfjimqp Full ‐          

2000 479,031         yes no ‐           ‐                   acgk 1 ‐          

2001 757,185         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

2002 121,604         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

2003 (2,220)            no no  ‐           ‐                   ab 0 ‐          

2004 180,309         yes no ‐           ‐                   acgk 1 ‐          

2005 1,034,075      yes yes 235,615  229,266          acfjie Full ‐          

2006 600,100         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

2007 1,010,954      yes no ‐           ‐                   acgk Full ‐          

2008 1,290,389      yes yes 430,106  580,737          acfe Full 2              

2009 749,075         no yes 47,853    500,702          acfjimqt 1 ‐          

2010 733,859         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

2011 630,473         no no ‐           ‐                   acghdb 0 ‐          

2012 478,034         no no ‐           ‐                   acghlk 1 ‐          

2013 335,836         no no ‐           ‐                   acghlk 1 ‐          

Page 37: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page37 

Annotated Decision Tree 

 

 

 

 

Page 38: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page38 

SPR and Nose Ranks (as denoted in Decision Tree Walkthrough) 

SPR Rank    

1= no release 

2 = 1 week 

3 = 2 week 

4 = 3 week 

5 = full    

 

Nose  Vol 

0  0 

1  107107.4 

2  168595 

3  321322.3 

4  458181.8 

5  579173.6 

6  684297.5 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Page 39: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page39 

Riverware SPR Table based on Available Water (includes Base Release) 

 

Avail Water (af) 0 90,843 150,347 229,686 418,512

Julian Day

Day 117 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 118 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 119 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 120 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 121 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 122 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 123 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 124 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 125 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 126 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 127 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 128 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 129 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 130 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 131 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 132 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 133 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 134 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 135 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 136 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 137 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 138 0 0 0 0 4000

Day 139 0 0 0 0 4000

Day 140 0 0 0 0 4000

Day 141 0 0 0 0 4000

Day 142 0 0 0 0 4000

Day 143 0 0 0 2000 4000

Day 144 0 0 0 3200 4000

Day 145 0 0 0 5000 5000

Day 146 0 0 0 5000 5000

Day 147 0 0 2000 5000 5000

Day 148 0 0 3200 5000 5000

Day 149 0 0 5000 5000 5000

Day 150 0 2000 5000 5000 5000

Day 151 0 3200 5000 5000 5000

Day 152 0 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 153 0 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 154 0 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 155 0 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 156 0 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 157 0 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 158 0 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 159 0 3400 5000 5000 5000

Day 160 0 2200 5000 5000 5000

Day 161 0 0 5000 5000 5000

Day 162 0 0 3400 5000 5000

Day 163 0 0 2200 5000 5000

Day 164 0 0 0 5000 5000

Day 165 0 0 0 5000 5000

Day 166 0 0 0 3400 4500

Day 167 0 0 0 2200 4000

Day 168 0 0 0 0 4000

Day 169 0 0 0 0 3500

Day 170 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 171 0 0 0 0 3000

Day 172 0 0 0 0 2500

Day 173 0 0 0 0 2500

Day 174 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 175 0 0 0 0 2000

Day 176 0 0 0 0 1500

Day 177 0 0 0 0 1500

Day 178 0 0 0 0 1000

Day 179 0 0 0 0 1000

SPR Daily Average Release (cfs)

Page 40: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page40 

Riverware SPR Nose interpolation table 

 

Nose (af) 0 107,107 198,347 273,719 333,223 376,860 454,215 523,636 577,190 630,744 684,298

Day 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Day 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000

Day 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000

Day 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 87 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 88 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Day 89 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 3000 3000 4000 5000

Day 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 4000 4000 4000 5000

Day 91 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 3000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 92 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 93 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 94 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 95 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 96 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 97 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 98 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 99 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 101 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 102 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 103 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 104 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 105 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 106 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 107 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 108 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 109 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 110 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 111 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 112 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 113 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 114 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 115 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 116 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000

Day 117 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

Day 118 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

Day 119 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

Day 120 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

Day 121 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

Day 122 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

Day 123 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

Day 124 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

Day 125 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

Day 126 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

Day 127 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

Day 128 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

Day 129 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

Day 130 0 1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000

Day 131 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 132 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 133 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 134 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 135 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 136 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 137 0 1000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000

Day 138 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Day 139 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Day 140 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Day 141 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Day 142 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Day 143 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Day 144 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000

Add cfs to SPR

Page 41: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

January 2015 

ReclamationWCAO Page41 

Appendix B 

Riverware Rules 

Model is in Riverware version 6.5.2 and is available upon request. Riverware rules pertaining to the Proposed Method Reoperation modeling follow below. 

Page 42: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 1

RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)Description: The way the spike and TBF overage rules are written, the EOWYST is reached at some point between Sept 1 and Sept 30. In low hydrologic years, the

EOWYST will be reached slightly earlier in that month.

Policy Group: 3 Cycle Limits and FinishingDescription:

Rule: ComputeEOWYPEPriority: 1Description:

NavajoData.EOWYPE = Navajo Reservoir.Pool Elevation

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND @"t" == @"September 30"

Rule: MaxReleasePriority: 6Description: If the calculated Navajo Reservoir Outflow is too high, this rule sets the outflow to the maximum release (5,000 cfs). The reservoir won't be able to set

a release higher than 5,000 cfs, it will error out because the release table only goes to 5,000 cfs.

Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF Navajo Reservoir.Release > NavajoData.MaxRelease THENNavajoData.MaxRelease

END IF

Execute Only When:

TRUE

Policy Group: 3 Cycle Navajo RulesDescription: If need more iterations, could increase # run cycles and set these rules to >run cycle 2

Rule: AddSpikePriority: 7Description:

Navajo Reservoir.Release = Max Navajo Reservoir.Release , NavajoData.SpikeRelease

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpikeSeason

Rule: CalculateSpikePriority: 8Description: Calculate spike volume for Sept 1- Sept 30 based on leftovers from nose and spike.

NavajoData.SpikeRelease= IF Navajo Reservoir.Storage > ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,

NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE+ 0.50000000 "ft"

+ 0.00000000 "acre-ft"

THEN

Min VolumeToFlow Navajo Reservoir.Storage- ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,

NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE+ 0.50000000 "ft"

+ 0.00000000 "acre-ft"

,

@"t"

,

5,000.00000000 "cfs"ELSE

0.00000000 "cfs"END IF

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpikeSeason

Rule: MeetBaseflowPlusOveragePriority: 9

Page 43: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 2

Description: Forecasts the release required to meet the TBF plus any summer overage applied for the current summer. Only fires during summer baseflow season. If the function cannot find a release to use, hypsim will return a message in diagnostics and will be ineffective.

Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF SJS4.Outflow < Min NavajoData.MIN TBF + NavajoData.SummerTBFOverage ,NavajoData.MAX TBF

THEN

Min NavajoData.MIN TBF + NavajoData.SummerTBFOverage ,NavajoData.MAX TBF

- SJS4.Outflow + Navajo Reservoir.Release

END IF

Execute Only When:

NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND SummerBaseflowSeason

Rule: CalculateOverageInCFSPriority: 10Description: Adds overage to TBF for summer (June 15 - September 30) to evacuate extra water. Spreads it equally over summer baseflow season through 9/1.

After 9/1, any additional water wlil be released through a spike.

NavajoData.SummerTBFOverage= IF NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater @"24:00:00 May 1, Current Year" <= 0.00000000 "acre-ft"

OR Navajo Reservoir.Storage < ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE

THEN

0.00000000 "cfs"ELSE

Max VolumeToFlow SummerOverage

77.00000000

,

@"t"

,

0.00000000 "cfs"END IF

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND SummerBaseflowSeason AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"

Rule: InsertNewSPRPriority: 11Description:

Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose > NavajoData.MinRelease THENNavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose

END IF

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpringPeakReleaseSeason

Rule: MinReleasePriority: 12Description:

Navajo Reservoir.Release = NavajoData.MinRelease

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000

Rule: AddNoseToSPRPriority: 13Description:

NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose = Min NavajoData.Cycle3SpringPeakRelease + NavajoData.SPRNose , 5,000.00000000 "cfs"

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"

Rule: ComputeSPRNosePriority: 14Description: Computes a nose volume and then picks the appropriate interpolated nose from the table.

Page 44: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 3

NavajoData.SPRNose = NavajoData.SPRNoseTables @"t" , SPROperationalSpillVolume

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"

Rule: MatchAvailWatertoSPRPriority: 16Description: Forecast mode: When SPR has begun (when very close to SPR time) , the SPR may be manually input here-- this rule should be turned off and the SPR

being used should be input into the "NavajoData.KnownReleasePattern" slot.

NavajoData.Cycle3SpringPeakRelease = IF SpringPeakReleaseSeason THENNavajoData.SpringPeakReleaseTables @"t" , NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater @"t"

END IF

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"

Rule: Recalculated Available WaterPriority: 17Description: Rule calculates available water based on Proposed Operations Method- using EOWYST.

Storage+Inflow-NIIP-Evap-the releases that were calculated in Cycle 2 for maintaining the TBF-EOWYST

NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater= Navajo Reservoir.Storage @"t - 1"

+ SumFlowsToVolume Navajo Reservoir.Inflow ,@"t" ,@"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"

- SumFlowsToVolume Navajo Reservoir.Diversion ,@"t" ,@"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"

- SumSlot Navajo Reservoir.Evaporation ,@"t" ,@"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"

- NavajoData.Cycle2OperationalReleases @"24:00:00 September 30, Current Year"- NavajoData.Cycle2OperationalReleases

- ElevationToStorage Navajo Reservoir ,NavajoData.PreferredEOYPE

+ SumFlowsToVolumeSkipNaN NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose ,@"24:00:00 February 28, Current Year" ,@"t - 1"

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND SpringPeakReleaseSeason

Policy Group: 2 Cycle Navajo RulesDescription:

Rule: ComputeEOWYPEPriority: 18Description:

NavajoData.EOWYPE = Navajo Reservoir.Pool Elevation

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 3.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND @"t" == @"September 30"

Rule: DetermineAnimasPeakDatePriority: 19Description: No rule yet

Execute Only When:

TRUE

Page 45: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 4

Rule: SumOperationalReleasesPriority: 20Description:

NavajoData.Cycle2OperationalReleases = SumFlowsToVolume Navajo Reservoir.Release ,PreviousDate @"t" ,

@"October 1",

@"t"

- SumFlowsToVolume NavajoData.ManualSpringPeakReleasePreviousDate @"t" ,

@"October 1",

@"t"

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"

Rule: StoreCycle2ElevationPriority: 21Description:

NavajoData.Cycle2NavajoElev = Navajo Reservoir.Pool Elevation

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000 AND NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule"

Rule: Manual Spring Peak ReleasePriority: 24Description: Manual input of Spring Peak Release. BE SURE that the data shows NaN outside of the spring peak release in that slot.

For Run Cycle 2, use last month's final iteration of Spring Peak Release.

Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF NavajoData.ManualSpringPeakRelease > 0.00000000 "cfs" THENNavajoData.ManualSpringPeakRelease

END IF

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Rule: MeetBaseflowPriority: 25Description: Forecasts the release required to meet the TBF minimum downstream (of 500 cfs). If the function cannot find a release to use, hypsim will return a

message in diagnostics and will be ineffective.

Navajo Reservoir.Release = IF SJS4.Outflow < NavajoData.MIN TBF THENNavajoData.MIN TBF - SJS4.Outflow + Navajo Reservoir.Outflow

END IF

Execute Only When:

NOT HasRuleFiredSuccessfully "ThisRule" AND GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Rule: MinReleasePriority: 26Description:

Navajo Reservoir.Release = NavajoData.MinRelease

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Rule: Set SJRIP Historic Observed InflowPriority: 27Description:

Navajo Reservoir.Inflow = NavajoData.NVLOC Inflow

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Policy Group: 2 Cycle Set SJ LossesDescription:

Page 46: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 4 - 1

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RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 5

Rule: Bound SJAF Gain/LossPriority: 28Description: This will bound the SJAF Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR

This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year.

SJAF.Local Inflow = Min Max - 120.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJAFDaily * SJAF.Inflow , 411.00000000 "cfs"

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Rule: Bound SJFS Gain/LossPriority: 29Description: This will bound the SJFS Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR

This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year.

SJFS.Local Inflow = Min Max - 250.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJFSDaily * SJFS.Inflow , 638.00000000 "cfs"

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Rule: Bound SJS4 Gain/LossPriority: 30Description: This will bound the Animas Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR

This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year.

SJS4.Local Inflow = Min Max - 473.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJS4Daily * SJS4.Inflow , 684.00000000 "cfs"

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Rule: Bound SJ4B Gain/LossPriority: 31Description: This will bound the Animas Losses based on LOSSES_V.xlsm and a plot of losses during SPR

This is just a max and min observed for the whole year 1999-2013. Next step would be put into a table by month of year. Actual min is -1300 but that point was thrown out

SJ4B.Local Inflow = Min Max - 120.00000000 "cfs" , GAINLOSS.SJ4BDaily * SJ4B.Inflow , 710.00000000 "cfs"

Execute Only When:

GetRunCycleIndex == 2.00000000

Utility Group: Navajo FunctionsDescription:

Function: SpringPeakReleaseSeasonReturn Type: BOOLEANArguments: ( )Description:

@"t" <= @"June 30" AND @"t" >= @"March 1"

Function: SummerBaseflowSeasonReturn Type: BOOLEANArguments: ( )Description:

@"t" <= @"September 30" AND @"t" > @"June 15"

Function: SPROperationalSpillVolumeReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( )Description: 418,512 af refers to the volume of the maximum hydrograph, INCLUDING base flow (otherwise known as 356,000 af in the flow recommendations)

NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater - 418,512.00000000 "acre-ft"

Function: VolumeBeyondNoseReturn Type: NUMERIC

Page 48: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 6

Arguments: ( )Description: See if there's any extra spill that couldn't be taken care of with SPR Nose. This is done by taking the maximum release through march 1 (5,000 cfs)

and multiplying it by 57 days (first day of SPR is April 27.

SPROperationalSpillVolume - 565,269.00000000 "acre-ft"

Function: SpikeSeasonReturn Type: BOOLEANArguments: ( )Description:

@"t" <= @"September 30" AND @"t" >= @"September 1"

Function: SummerOverageReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( )Description: This function figures out how much is left to evactuate after the Spring Peak Release. This only happens when the SPR was less than the maximum,

and thus there was no nose on the hydrograph. Extra water is relased through an increase in TBF first. Then a spike will occur after Sept 1 if necessary.

NavajoData.Cycle3AvailableWater @"24:00:00 May 1, Current Year" - FlowToVolume SumSlot NavajoData.Cycle3SPRPlusNose ,@"24:00:00 March 1, Current Year" ,@"24:00:00 June 30, Current Year"

,

@"t"

Utility Group: Global FunctionsDescription:

Function: Remaining Spring Runoff VolumeReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( OBJECT res )Description:

IF @"t" >= @"March 1" AND @"t" <= @"July 31" THENSumFlowsToVolume res . "Inflow" , @"t" , @"24:00:00 July 31, Current Year"

ELSE0.00000000 "acre-feet"

END IF

Function: CalculateAvailableIrrigationVolumeReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( OBJECT Res, SLOT ResInflow, SLOT ResStorage, SLOT ResEOYMinStorage )Description:

FlowToVolume OutflowRequredToMeetTPE Res ,ResInflow ,ResStorage ,ResEOYMinStorage

,

@"t"

* LENGTH @"t" TO DateMin NextDate @"t" ,@"November 1"

,

@"Finish Timestep"

Function: OutflowRequredToMeetTPEReturn Type: NUMERICArguments: ( OBJECT Res, SLOT ResInflow, SLOT ResStorage, SLOT ResEOYMinStorage )Description:

IF @"t" == @"Finish Timestep" THENResInflow @"t - 1"

ELSETargetHWGivenInflow Res ,

@"t" ,DateMin NextDate @"t" ,

@"November 1",

@"Finish Timestep"

,

StorageToElevation Res ,ResEOYMinStorage

,

SumFlowsToVolume ResInflow ,@"t" ,

,

Page 49: Modeling Analysis of Navajo Reservoir Operations Proposed ......Jan 22, 2015  · January 2015 Reclamation WCAO Page 3 Figure 1. Annual inflow into Navajo Reservoir by water year (1971‐2013)

RiverWare 6.5.2 RPL Set: RBS Ruleset (from model file)

14:47 January 22, 2015Page 7

DateMin NextDate @"t" ,@"November 1"

,

@"Finish Timestep"ResStorage @"t - 1"

END IF