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Modeling Developing Country Emissions
Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI
Global Climate Change Seminar
May 21, 2008
Washington, DC
2© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Rest of World
India
China
Former SU
Rest of OECD
USA
Global CO2 Emissions: Changing of the Guard
2010 Projection
3© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Non-Annex B Emissions will surpass Annex B before 2010
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Annex B
Non-Annex B
4© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Reading the Data on Developing Countries
• Rapid growth in energy use and emissions
• China is the major player, both in rate and scale:
– 618 GW installed capacity in 2006
– 106 GW newly installed
source: J. Kejun (2007)
• Have modeling scenarios caught up?
• What are the implications for global stabilization goals?
5© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (ORNL)
6© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
7© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2005)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
8© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2007)
IEA Reference Forecast (2005)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
9© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2007)
IEA Reference Forecast (2005)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
New MERGE Baseline
10© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Modeling the Kaya Identity
Population × per capita income =
GDP× energy
intensity =
Primary Energy
× carbon intensity =
Emissions
Energy use per capita
11© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Kaya Identity in China
China 0
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0.81
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1.6
1.8
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Carbon Intensity of Energy
Population
EmissionsPer Capita
Income
Energy Intensity of GDP
source: G. Marland (2008)
Carbon Intensity of GDP
12© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China
2000 – 2010: 9.6%
2010– 2030: 7.5%
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$U
S T
rilli
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ME
R)
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (PWT)
New MERGE Baseline
13© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Total Primary Energy in China
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EJ
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (IEA)
IEA Reference Forecast (2007)
New MERGE Baseline
14© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Comparison to Asian Experience
• China’s per capita income in 2003:
$5,000 (year 2000 $US PPP)
• 7 Asian countries are wealthier than China:
Year of $5,000 income level
2003 Income
Hong Kong 1978 $29,600
Singapore 1967 $27,000
Japan 1961 $24,000
Taiwan 1977 $19,900
Korea 1982 $17,600
Malaysia 1980 $12,100
Thailand 1992 $7,700
15© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Per Capita Income Projection for China
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$U
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ho
us
an
d (
PP
P)
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Other Asian Countries
History (PWT)
New MERGE Baseline
16© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy Intensity Projections for China
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EJ
/ $
US
Tri
llio
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PP
P)
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Other Asian Countries
History (PWT, IEA)
New MERGE Baseline
17© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China
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GJ
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ers
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Other Asian Countries
History (IEA)
New MERGE Baseline
18© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China
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1990 2000 2010 2020
GJ
pe
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ers
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Other Asian Countries
CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (IEA)
IEA Reference Forecast (2007)
New MERGE Baseline
19© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Global CO2 Emissions
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (ORNL)
New MERGE Baseline
20© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Global CO2 Emissions
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
SRES Reference Scenarios (2000)
History (ORNL)
New MERGE Baseline
21© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Is 450 (CO2 only) Feasible?
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10CCSP 450 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios
Rest of World History
India History
China History
World Total History
22© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Is 450 (CO2 only) Feasible?
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10CCSP 450 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios
Rest of World Baseline
India Baseline
China Baseline
World Total History
History New MERGE Baseline
23© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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10CCSP 550 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios
Rest of World Baseline
India Baseline
China Baseline
World Total History
Is 550 (CO2 only) Feasible?
History New MERGE Baseline
24© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Conclusions
• There is considerable uncertainty about future growth…
• … but, the scenario shown here is plausible, consistent with current observations and historical experience
• If developing countries continue to grow along this baseline path, aggressive stabilization targets quickly become impossible to meet (without overshoot)
• Annex B countries must find a way to engage China