Modeling Forum Status Report

WRAP Planning Team MeetingFebruary 22-23, 2006

John Vimont, Mary Uhl, & Kevin Briggs, Forum Co-Chairs

Modeling Forum Projects• All work handled by Regional Modeling Center

– University of California Riverside

– ENVIRON

– Carolina Environmental Program

• Have instituted management tools during 2004-05– Increased monthly conference call and reporting frequency

– Detailed periodic reports (2004 RMC annual, 2002 Model Performance)

– Plans for mid-2006 report and Final Project report by 12/06

– Modeling simulation specification sheets & coordinator (Gerry Mansell)

Modeling Forum Projects

• 2006 objectives– Help states get past BART modeling hurdle

– Finish regional modeling for 12/2007 haze plans

– Document and archive model results

• RMC Project has been ongoing since 2000-01, plan is to conclude the project by 12/2006 – need for future RMC?

Completed Tasks - 2005• Completed several modeling simulations

– Base02a – actual 2002 emissions– Plan02a – actual 2002 emissions, except for Fire which used 2000-

04 “average/representative” data– Base18a – projected growth and control of point/area/all mobile

emissions, held fire, dust, and commercial marine emissions constant to Plan02a values

• Emissions processing – all SSJF, EF, FEJF, DEJF, TDDWG EIs to date are included– 1999 Mexico EI now usable in regional model

• Fire sensitivity modeling – well underway, complete in 3 months

• Model performance – new EPA CMAQ v4.5 released in Fall 2005

• CAMx PSAT – source apportionment model benchmarking and emissions processing

2006 Ongoing/Pending Tasks• BART modeling support– Get everyone on a timeline– 36km met data to states handling CalPuff on their own, if

desired– BART modeling protocol & CalPuff runs for AK, NM, NV, SD– Others (See table following slide) – what about AZ & UT?

• Then, back to lots of regional modeling– Base02b, plan02b, Base18b– BART impacts across the region– Sensitivity and control strategy runs– Final runs for Technical Support System & planning support

• Documentation– Mid-year 2006 report– Final report 12/2006– Archive data and results

Tom to fill in BART help status by state

Step A – BART Culpability Analysis (0.5 deciview

threshold)

Step B – BART Engineering

Analysis

Step C – Visibility Benefit Analysis for estimated emissions reduction from

BART application

AK

AZ

CA

CO

ID

MT

NV

NM

ND

OR

SD

UT

WA

WY

Tribal

Regional Modeling - Future Needs

• Archive modeling results and data after 2006– On-going funding?• For maintaining data

• For limited staff support, data transfers, and question-answering

– Where and other questions not discussed in any detail to date

• Forum is not requesting any other new projects in 2007

Regional Haze Implementation Questions

• Need regional modeling after 2006?– Probably, but not to the scale of the present RMC

team

• Should the Forum work to improve modeling tools and techniques after 2006, and when?

• When should the Forum start gearing up for the next round of SIP review and update?