modeling landscape scale plant community response to ...€¦ · modeling landscape scale plant...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change
and Human Management
Scott M. Duke-Sylvester1
Jenneke Visser1
Eric White2
1. University of Louisiana at Lafayette2. The Water Institute of the Gulf
NCER 2016 April 21, 2016 Fort Lauderdale, FL
![Page 2: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
QuestionsHow will Louisiana’s wetland ecosystems change in
response to ...
… sea level rise?
… future management?
marsh creation projects
water/sediment diversion
maintenance
2
![Page 3: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Approach
3
Linked multi-model
Hydrology
Morphology
Vegetation
Barrier islands
Fish, shrimp, clams
Birds, mammals
![Page 4: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
DomainEntire coast
500x500 meters
178904 cells
50 year
4
![Page 5: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Habitat and Species
5
Habitat Species
Bottomland Hardwood Forest
Quercus lyrata, Quercus texana, Quercus laurifolia, Ulmus americana, Quercus nigra, Quercus virginiana
Swamp Forest Salix nigra, Taxodium distichum, Nyssa aquatica
Fresh Floating Marsh Panicum hemitomon, Eleocharis baldwinii, Hydrocotyle umbellata
Fresh Attached Marsh Morella cerifera, Panicum hemitomon, Sagittaria latifolia, Zizaniopsis miliacea, Cladium mariscus, Typha domingensis
Intermediate Marsh Sagittaria lancifolia, Phragmites australis, Schoenoplectus californicus, Iva frutescens, Baccharis halimifolia
Brackish Marsh Spartina patens, Paspalum vaginatum
Saline Marsh Juncus roemerianus, Distichlis spicata, Spartina alterniflora, Avicennia germinans
Dune Uniola paniculata, Panicum amarum, Sporobolus virginicus
Swale Spartina patens, Distichlis spicata, Solidago sempervirens, Strophostyles helvola, Baccharis halimifolia
![Page 6: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Submodels
Emergent marsh
Floating vegetation
Lowland forest
Upland forest
SAV
Barrier Islands
6
![Page 7: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Ecological Processes
Species niche
Salinity
Hydrologic variation
Inundation
Water temperature
Dispersal
7
![Page 8: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Conceptual ModelW
etla
nd
Year tICM Input Year t
Wat
er
Year t+1ICM Input
Year t+1
Species Pool
Establishment
8
![Page 9: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Water Level Variability (standard deviation of water level, meters)SPAL 0.00 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.72 0.76 10.00
0.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.2 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.4 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.6 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000.8 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001.2 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001.4 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001.6 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001.8 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.002.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.003.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.004.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.005.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.006.0 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.007.0 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.008.0 1.00 1.00 0.60 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.009.0 1.00 0.85 0.45 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90
10.0 1.00 0.70 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.7512.0 1.00 0.70 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.7514.0 1.00 0.70 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.7516.0 1.00 0.70 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.7518.0 1.00 0.70 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.7520.0 1.00 0.90 0.50 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.9522.0 1.00 1.00 0.70 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0024.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0026.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0028.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
100.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Emergent wetlands: S. alternifloraS
alin
ity (a
nnua
l med
ian,
ppt
)
![Page 10: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Data for Calibration• Coastwide Reference Monitoring System
• 56 Swamp stations in 2012• 336 Marsh stations from 2007 through 2014
10
![Page 11: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Submerged Aquatic Vegetation
• Cover = 1.83 - 3.73⨉10-2 T – 7.76⨉10-2 S + 2.58 D
• T = water temp., oC
• S = salinity, ppt
• D = water depth, m
11
![Page 12: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Upland forestsElevation (m) QULE QUTE QULA3 ULAM QUNI QUVI
-0.1525 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0
0.1525 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0
0.305 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0
0.475 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0
0.61 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0
0.7625 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0
0.915 1 1 1 0.6 0.6 0.2
1.0675 1 1 1 0.7 0.7 0.4
1.22 0.8 0.8 0.8 1 1 0.6
1.3725 0.7 0.7 0.7 1 1 0.8
1.525 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 1
1.6775 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1
1.83 0 0 0 0.2 0.2 1
1.9825 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 1
2.135 0 0 0 0 0 1
12
![Page 13: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
2014 Initial Condition Map
13
![Page 14: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Model Results
14
ESLR = Eustatic Sea Level Rise
Scenario ESLR (m/50 year) Subsidence
Most optimistic 0.43 20%
Moderate 0.63 50%
Least optimistic 0.83 50%
![Page 15: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Most Optomistic
15
% C
over
![Page 16: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Moderate
16
% C
over
![Page 17: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Least Optomistic
17
% C
over
![Page 18: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Most OptomisticDistichlis spicata: Year 00
18
0%
100%
% C
over
![Page 19: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Most OptomisticDistichlis spicata: Year 10
0%
100%
% C
over
![Page 20: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Most OptomisticDistichlis spicata: Year 20
0%
100%
% C
over
![Page 21: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Most OptomisticDistichlis spicata: Year 30
0%
100%
% C
over
![Page 22: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Most OptomisticDistichlis spicata: Year 40
0%
100%
% C
over
![Page 23: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Most OptomisticDistichlis spicata: Year 50
0%
100%
% C
over
![Page 24: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Most vs LeastDistichlis spicata: Year 00
LeastMost
0% % Cover 100%
![Page 25: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Most vs LeastDistichlis spicata: Year 10
LeastMost
0% % Cover 100%
![Page 26: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Most vs LeastDistichlis spicata: Year 20
LeastMost
0% % Cover 100%
![Page 27: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Most vs LeastDistichlis spicata: Year 30
LeastMost
0% % Cover 100%
![Page 28: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
Most vs LeastDistichlis spicata: Year 40
LeastMost
0% % Cover 100%
![Page 29: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
Most vs LeastDistichlis spicata: Year 50
LeastMost
0% % Cover 100%
![Page 30: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Applications
Evaluate alterivative management options
Vegetation
Higher trophic level habitat
30
![Page 31: Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to ...€¦ · Modeling Landscape Scale Plant Community Response to Climate Change and Human Management. Scott M. Duke-Sylvester](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022042805/5f5f494b017ed1317a7075cb/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Acknowledgements
Jenneke Visser, UL Lafayette
Jacoby Carter, USGS National Wetland Research Center
Eric White, The Water Institute of the Gulf
Ehab Meshleh, The Water Institute of the Gulf
31