Modeling Myxozoan Disease in Pacific Salmon:

How Will Climate Change Affect Parasite Distribution and Salmon Survival?

Department of Microbiology, Oregon State University

*bartholj@science.oregonstate.eduhttp://microbiology.science.oregonstate.edu/fac_bartholomew

Jerri Bartholomew

Fish Disease Research

Ecosystem alterations as a result of climate change

Interactions with Disease

Streamflowpatterns

Streamflowpatterns

Host life histories Host life histories

Thermal regimesThermal regimes

NutrientsNutrients

Myxospore stageMyxospore stageActinospore stageActinospore stage

Polychaete hostPolychaete host

Salmon hostSalmon host

Decreased longevity

Increased parasite replication

Altered timing of parasite release

Stress causing reduced disease thresholds

Changes in population dynamics

Altered spore longevity?

Ceratomyxa shasta life cycle

Outcomes

Changes in disease severity

Changes in seasonal

cycles

Changes in pathogen range

Identify temporal patterns of parasite abundance

Young’s Bar Orleans

Williamson River

Keno Eddy

Seiad Valley

Above Beaver Creek

Klamathon

IGD

LOWER KLAMATH

RIVER

UPPER KLAMATH

RIVER

OREGON

PACIFIC OCEAN

CALIFORNIA

1 spore/L

Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette

RiverWater sample analysis for parasite

DNA

Identify spatial patterns of parasite abundance

Young’s Bar Orleans

Williamson River

Keno Eddy

Seiad Valley

Above Beaver Creek

Klamathon

IGD

LOWER KLAMATH

RIVER

UPPER KLAMATH

RIVER

OREGON

PACIFIC OCEAN

CALIFORNIA

Study aim: Determine how changing temperature profiles in coldwater refugia will affect disease cycles

temptemp ctct

AA BB CC AA BB CC11 18.218.2 17.817.8 DryDry 30.130.1 27.827.8

      DryDry

33 19.619.6 16.016.0 34.034.0 28.628.6

           

55 19.119.1 17.417.4    34.334.3 29.729.7   

           

77 18.918.9    15.815.8 31.431.4    29.929.9

           

99 18.718.7 18.118.1    28.828.8 30.630.6   

           

1111 18.718.7    17.217.2 33.633.6    30.130.1

           

1313 18.918.9 17.817.8    28.728.7 26.926.9

        

1515 18.618.6 27.827.8   

1717 18.818.8 28.128.1

  

1919 18.918.9 29.829.8

  

2121 19.119.1 27.827.8

  

2323 18.818.8 28.728.7

Study aim: Predict changes in C. shasta range based on projected temperature changes

• Predict where dissemination may occur

• Predict where the parasite may disappear

• Develop a qualitative risk assessment

QUESTIONS?

Study aim: Apply methods for monitoring parasites in the Klamath to the Willamette

RiverYoung’s Bar Orleans

Williamson River

Keno Eddy

Seiad Valley

Above Beaver Creek

Klamathon

IGD

LOWER KLAMATH

RIVER

UPPER KLAMATH

RIVER

OREGON

PACIFIC OCEAN

CALIFORNIA

Water sample analysis for parasite DNA

Predict disease severity in salmon

Young’s Bar Orleans

Williamson River

Keno Eddy

Seiad Valley

Above Beaver Creek

Klamathon

IGD

LOWER KLAMATH

RIVER

UPPER KLAMATH

RIVER

OREGON

PACIFIC OCEAN

CALIFORNIA

10 spores/L