Modeling Pacific Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Physical and Biological

ProcessesProcesses

Fei CHAIUniversity of Maine

U.S.A.

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Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Sea Surface Height (SSH)

3 day averaged model output 1993 to 2006

2006

Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS): 12-km Resolution

1993

First Mode of EOF Analysis of SSH

Model Satellite

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Benthivorous Fish

Pelagic Invertebrate

Predators

Phytoplankton

Seabirds

Deposit-feedingBenthos

Suspension- feeding Benthos

DOCAmmonia

Fishing

Detritus

Micro-Zooplankton

Meso-Zooplankton

Nitrate+Nitrite

Nano-Phytoplankton

PlanktivorousFish

Piscivorous Fish

Pre-recruits Pre-recruits Pre-recruitsMarine

Mammals

spawning

recruitment

Bacteria

How to Link?

3D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling3D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling

Modular Ocean Model (MOM)Basin scale, coarse resolution (0.5o to 2o), 1950 - 2003

Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS)Basin scale, finer resolution (1/2o), 1950-2006

Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS)Basin scale, finer resolution (12.5km), 1990-2006

West Coast of the North America (NCOM)9 Km with physical data assimilation, 1998 - present

Gulf of Maine (POM)3 Km resolution with SST assimilation, 2002 - present

Ekman Pumping Anomalyand Modeled Chlorophyll Front (0.2 mg/m3) Anomaly

PDO Index andModeled PrimaryProduction Anomaly

Winter surface NO3 difference

(1979-90) - (1964-75)

Chai et al., 2003

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ROMS-Biology (50-km) Simulated Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m3)Gulf of Alaska, averaged 15 May - 15 June (1997-2000)

Jan. April Aug. Dec.

1999

1997

1998

2000

Coupled Bio-Physical Modeling

NRL West Coast NCOM with SeaWIFS Chlorophyll

NRL West Coast NCOM with Model Chlorophyll

Monthly Sequence: June – August 2001

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Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) SimulationAnnual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

ModeledSST (oC)

SatelliteSST (oC)

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Surfare Chlorophyll Comparisonin situ, the modeled, and SeaWiFS

Historical DataSeaWiFS1997-2006

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Seasonal SST Comparison

Observed QuikScat NCEP COADS

Jan

Dec

An Individual Based Model (IBM) for Peruvian Anchovy

Model the entire anchovy life history: spawning events, egg hatching, larva development, growth of juvenile and adultsBased on conservation of energy (bioenergetics):

growth=consumption-respiration-egestion-excretionInput: temperature and four plankton groups from ROMS-CoSiNE; Output: anchovy growth (length and weight)3D circulation, offline simulation, output: location, length and weight

mesozooplankton Recruitment

diatom

Anchovy Recruitment in Response to ENSO

There is a clear seasonal and interannual variability characterized by anchovy recruitment to 5cm.

Strong El NinoModerate El Nino

Temperature

diatommesozooplankt

on

Recruitment

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El Nino and Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

Annual Anchovy Catch

10 x 106 MT

GoMOOS - http://www.gomoos.org

GoalTo provide data and data products that serve public and private sector needs for:• solving practical problems• predicting events, and• further understanding natural systems in the Gulf of Maine

Xue et al., CRS, 2006

Modeled SurfaceChlorophyll, April 2002

SeaWiFSApril 2002

Comparing with Buoy B, E, IBlack: buoy (night time values)Red: modelGreen: SeaWiFS

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Challenges and Challenges and RecommendationsRecommendations

Physical, nutrients, plankton, and higher levels

Improving physical models, data assimilation

Spatial and temporal scales, Basin-regional-local; seasonal, interannual, and decadal

Surface forcing (wind, heat, fresh water), boundaries

Cannot proceed by simply including more variables

Simplify the problem with focusing on target species

Incorporating structured population and IBM

Considering uncertainties, probabilistic simulations

Better communication