modeling the energy- climate transition · modeling the energy-climate transition dunsmuir lodge...

1PNNL-SA-60766

MODELING THE ENERGY-CLIMATE TRANSITION

Dunsmuir Lodge (Victoria BC)Jae Edmonds

August 12, 2008

THE LONG HAUL: NAVIGATING THE ENERGY TRANSITION TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE

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Stabilization implies that greenhouse gases have a price—either implicitly or explicitly.

If carbon and other GHG’s are valued at zero, both implicitly and explicitly—you get the reference scenario.

None of the reference scenarios that we have examined stabilize GHG concentrations at low levels.

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The price of carbon should rise over time.

Climate change is a STOCK POLLUTANTproblem, NOT a flow pollutant.Price of carbon starts low and rises over time.Stabilization means tripping increasingly costly technology options as emissions are driven toward zero.

Global Value of Carbon

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$102/tC

$19/tC$10/tC$4/tC

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Decision makers should be able to form a reasonable expectation that the price will rise—NOT fall—over time.

The time when low-emission technologies enter into operation is dramatically accelerated when one of the cost elements (carbon emissions) is growing rapidly.

E.g. CCS will come into use long before the price of carbon reaches the point at which it would be sufficient to deploy the technology if it were held constant.

The time horizon of emissions mitigation measuresPolicies that are in effect for short periods of time and then expire make the creation of expectations difficult.Even if policies extend indefinitely into the future, they will need regular review and re-pegging of the price to reflect learning.

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Technology in the long term casts a shadow back to the present

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Technology assumptions in the post-2050 period are very different

Because prices followed a modified “Hotelling” path, technology differences in the post-2050 period were reflected back to the present. $0

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Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy and land use systems.

Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.Stabilizing CO2 concentrations at any level means that global, CO2 emissions must peak and then decline forever.

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Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

Historic & 2005 to 2100

1750-2005 300 GtC

GTSP Ref 1430 GtC

750 ppm 1200 GtC

650 ppm 1040 GtC

550 ppm 862 GtC

450 ppm 480 GtC

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While it is technically possible to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases at virtually any level with any technology suite, the character of technology affects the cost of stabilization.

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Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy and land use systems

Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy and land use systems

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Preindustrial CO2Concentration

~280 ppm

Present CO2Concentration

~380 ppm

Present CO2Concentration

~380 ppm

2100 CO2Concentration

~740 ppm

2100 CO2Concentration

~550 ppmHistory and Reference Case Stabilization of CO2 at 4.7 Wm-2

Oil Oil + CCSNatural Gas Natural Gas + CCSCoal Coal + CCSBiomass Energy Nuclear EnergyNon-Biomass Renewable Energy End-use Energy

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Bio to H2 + CCSElectricity--IGCC + CCSBio to Refined LiquidsBio to GasBio to LiquidsBio to H2Electricity--IGCCElectricity--Existing BioElectricity--Conventional BioIndustryBuildings

500 ppm All Carbon Valued

Two interesting technologies in the terrestrial system

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ReferenceFirstBest_CCS_550FirstBest_CCS_500FirstBest_CCS_450550 NoLUCO2 Price500 NoLUCO2 Price450 NoLUCO2 Price

Total Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

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All Net Carbon Emissions Affect the Atmosphere.To the extent that marginal costs are similar across all emissions sources, costs will be minimized.

To the extent that large marginal cost differences are created, then the total cost of carbon emissions mitigation will rise, and potentially by large amounts.

Three ExamplesElectrificationLand useParticipation

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ElectrificationElectrification

If only electric power generators see carbon prices, then the cost of reducing a tonne of carbon emissions rises by a factor of FIVE.

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C:\aaafiles\papers & presentations\2005 moritaSpecial Issue--Electrification paper\EPRI_Electricty_Sector_Targeted_Tax2

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Land Use and Terrestrial Carbon

Land use emissions reduction by valuing terrestrial carbon (cumulative 2005 to 2095)

550 ppm 125 PgC500 ppm 170 PgC450 ppm 210 PgC

Costs are halved if terrestrial carbon is valued for a 450 ppm CO2 2095 limit

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International Participation in Emissions Mitigation

Year 2020 Annex I emissions mitigation, relative to 2005, for different accession assumptions: 450 ppm

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Four scenarios lead to the same place, but they are not equal.

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Total Discounted Cost of Mitigation, 2005 through 2095

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Mitigation Cost in 2050

CO2 concentrations were limited with all four suites.All four suites employed a portfolio of technologies to achieve stabilization—there is still no “silver bullet”.The better the technology, the lower the cost.

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BACKUP SLIDES

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6. The Challenge of Scale is Impressive—near term

CO2 Storage—550 ppm Stabilization Case

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In the mid- and long-term the challenge grows

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ElectrificationElectrification

If all fossil fuel carbon is priced equally the price of electricity FALLS relative to its competitors in end-use markets.As a consequence the world electrifies.

Average Electricity Price Relative to Oil Price

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Electricity as a Percentage of Total Final Energy

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Electrification Over Time

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Stabilization changes the sources of fossil CO2 emissions.•Utility emissions drop by 90 percent.

•Buildings and Industry electrify. •Transportation emissions dominate.

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Reference 500 ppm

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Corn Price When Carbon Is Valued But WithoutPurpose-grown Bioenergy

Significant crop price escalation occurs if carbon is valued, even in the absence of purpose grown bioenergy production.

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Four Alternative Technology Suites

Reference Adv Bio/CCS

Nuclear, Renewables,

Efficiency

CCS Low High High Low

Bio None Base Base None

End Use Low High Low High

Hydrogen Low High High Low

Wind Low High Low High

Solar Low High Low High

New Nukes No Yes No Yes

Geothermal Low High Low High

And, stabilized CO2 concentrations at 450, 500, and 550 ppm.

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The Global Energy SystemFour Evolutionary Pathways

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oil w/o ccs oil w/ccsgas w/o ccs gas w/ccscoal w/o ccs coal w/ccsbiomass w/o ccs biomass w/ccsnuclear hydrowind solargeothermal energy reduction

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If Very Low Concentrations Are Desired, Then Overshoot Emissions and Concentration Trajectories May Become More Important

We generally think of stabilization scenarios as “Rise to and Maintain” trajectories.This approach excludes the possibility of very low concentrations.Very low concentrations require overshooting the eventual concentration and subsequently declining to it.

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GTSP Ref 1430 GtC

750 ppm 1200 GtC

650 ppm 1040 GtC

550 ppm 862 GtC

450 ppm 480 GtC

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Net Long-term Carbon Emissions for Some Steady-state Concentration

The world would eventually return to 350 ppm after 800 PgC net emissions (300 PgC since 1750 + 500 PgC additional).

Cumulative emissions usually associated with 450 ppm stabilization.

Negative emissions mean that Very low steady-state concentrations are thinkable:

How long above the very long-term value?How high above the long-term value?How much irreversible change?

CO2Concentration

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Cumulative Emissions (PgC)

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The World Will Be A Second Best, or Third Best or …

While climate change implies large forces shaping the future global energy and land-use systems, it is not the only force.

Minimizing the cost of meeting a climate constraint in the presence of other constraints may not be simple—e.g. bioenergy.

In addition, other issues will overlay and interact with the energy-land-use-climate issue—e.g. energy security, local air quality, sustainability.

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Technology is even more important in an imperfect world

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Total Discounted Cost of Mitigation, 2005 through 2095

Mitigation Cost in 2050

In the real world we will almost certainly have to live with second- and third-best solutions.

Technology improvement can be even more valuable in an imperfect world than in a perfect world.

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Technology is needed to address climate change in the near, mid, and long terms implying the need for a portfolio of R&D and basic science investments.

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Future projections of energy use and CO2 emissions assume significant technological progress in their no-climate-policy, business-as-usual cases

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The Challenge of Emissions Mitigation Accelerates Over Time

Emissions Mitigation 2005 to 2050 and 2050 to 2095

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While the mitigation supply schedule for MIT and MiniCAM were similar up to the year 2050 in the CCSP SAP 2.1a, near-term carbon prices were much higher in the MIT scenarios. This is in part due to differences in technology availability in the post-2050 period.Investments in basic scientific research in the first half of the 21st

century can be transformed into energy technologies that can become a major part of the global energy system in the second half of the century.

modeling the energy- climate transition · modeling the energy-climate transition dunsmuir lodge...

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