modeling the greenhouse gases of cropland/grassland at european scale n. viovy, s. gervois, n....
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Modeling the Greenhouse gases of cropland/grasslandModeling the Greenhouse gases of cropland/grasslandAt European scaleAt European scale
N. Viovy, S. Gervois, N. Vuichard, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, B. Seguin, N. Brisson, J.F. Soussana , P. Ciais
Aim of modeling: Simulate the GHG exchanges in response to Environmental conditions (climate and management) based on parameterization of biological processes of plant functioningAdvantage:• can be spatially explicit• can be used to extrapolate to the future• can be used to test several scenarios of climate evolution, mitigation option etc….
State of art of modeling of greenhouse gases in ecosystems
Large scale process models : (eg. LPJ, ORCHIDEE…)Can be run at european scale but crude description of processesEspecially for agriculture (Mainly designed for natural vegetation, forest)
Local process models (eg. Crops: STICS, grassland PASIM)
Good description of processes and take into account for managementBut only at field level.
Integrated model: (eg. Fasset) Integrate antropogenic dimention at fram level with simplified Ecosystems processes
How to combine these approaches to assess european scale GHG budgetOn agricultural lands
Two possible approaches:
Coupling Large scale models with local scale models
Improve existing processes in large scale models for better Representation of crops and taking into account for management
Coupling ORCHIDEE with STICS and PASIM
ORCHIDEE: Global scale model representing 12 « plant functionnal types »Simulate both biophysical and biogeochemical processes for net Exchange with the atmospherePart of the IPSL climate model.STICS:
Generic crop model designed for main crops type. Prediction of
Crop yield. Take into account for fertilization, irrigation,
PASIM:
Designed to represent pasture. Include both cutting and grazing by
Ruminants and there effects on the GHC balance
(including N2O and CH4)
Stategy of coupling
CO2,CH4,N2O budget on grasslands and crops
Mitigation options
European statisticse.g –fertilizers input,cutting/grazing systems stocking rate, irrigation
ORCHIDEE
Climate forcing (ATEAM)Vegetation map (CORINE)
PASIM/STICS
In situ forcing
Coupling
European scale hybrid model
Comparison with in-situ data
« optimum management »
Data available at european Level
Climate data: Climate data from ATEAM european project (EVK2-2000-00075)
Combination of 10’x10’ climatology with 0.5°x0.5° CRU climateData to construct a « pseudo 10’x10’ » data set for all the 20th century
Land cover: CORINE land cover map
Very high resolution and quality data set (but no information on cropstypes)
Soil: European soil map (problem of access to the data)
The main problem is to obtain regional statistics on managementPractices !
Cropland: Coupling STICS and ORCHIDEE
50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
500
1000
1500Aerial biomass (gC / m2)
50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
500
1000
1500Aerial biomass (gC / m2)
Wheat Corn
days days50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0
500
1000
1500Aerial biomass (gC / m2)
50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
500
1000
1500Aerial biomass (gC / m2)
Wheat Corn
days days
STI CS (an agronomy model) MeasurementsORCHI DEE-STI CS
Improvement of the hybrid model:
e.g : LAI is calculated by STICS, photosynthesis by ORCHIDEE
50 100 150 200 250 300 350-15
-10
-5
0
5net carbon flux (gC/ m2/ day)
rain defi cit
sowing
days
harvest
50 100 150 200 250 300 350-15
-10
-5
0
5net carbon flux (gC/ m2/ day)
rain defi cit
sowing
days
harvest
50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8evapotranspiration (mm/ day)
rain defi cit
sowing
days
harvest
50 100 150 200 250 300 3500
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8evapotranspiration (mm/ day)
rain defi cit
sowing
days
harvest
‘validation’ site: Corn at Bondville (Illinois, US)
net carbon flux (gC/ m2/ day)
50 200 250 350-15
-10
-5
0
5
Mea
sure
men
ts p
robl
em
Days300100 150
Rain deficit sowingharvest rising
net carbon flux (gC/ m2/ day)
50 200 250 350-15
-10
-5
0
5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Mea
sure
men
ts p
robl
em
Days300100 150
Rain deficit sowingharvest rising
evapotranspiration (mm/ day)
50 200 250 3500
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mea
sure
men
ts p
robl
em
Days100 150 300
Rain deficit sowingharvest rising
evapotranspiration (mm/ day)
50 200 250 3500
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mea
sure
men
ts p
robl
em
Days100 150 300
Rain deficit sowingharvest rising
‘validation’ site: wheat at Ponca (Oklahoma, US)
January ORCHIDEE – STICS
January ORCHIDEE
January MODIS (Myneni et al.)
July ORCHIDEE
July MODIS (Myneni et al.)
July ORCHIDEE - STICS
Comparison of LAI between ORCHIDEE, ORCHIDEE – STICS and MODIS
GPP (gC/m2/day)
Time evolution of simulated GPP and NEP (averaged over Europe)
ORCHIDEE
ORCHIDEE-STICS
Very stong increase in seasonal cycle
NEP (gC/m2/day)4
-5
9
Simulation for the 20th century: impact of CO2, climate and management
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000250
300
350
400
367.9
297
1900
Atmospheric CO2
Mean annual temperature (°C) Annual rainfall (mm)
Climate
1920 1940 1960 1980 20001900
Organic fertilizer Inorganic fertilizer
+ irrigation
Species change
Management
1920 1940 1960 19806
7
8
9
10
11
12Wheat annual NPP
NP
P (
tC /
ha/y
)
CO2 CO2 + climateCO2 + climate + management
10.03
11.01
7.460
2
4
6
8
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
Wheat yield (from FAO)
1.28
8.02
CO2 CO2 + climate CO2 + climate + management
Evolution of production (tC/ha/y)
Difference of production 2000-1900
Grassland: coupling PASIM and ORCHIDEE
Same forcing as for cropland (climatologic run)
Two scenarios:
• cutting • grazing: automatic determination of stocking rate
Cutting scenario
Yield (tC/(ha year))
Total GH effect (tC/ha/y)
NPP (tC/ha/y) N2O (Kg N/ha/y)
Stocking rate (LU/ha/y)
NPP (tC/ha/y) N2O (Kg N/ha/y) CH4 (t/ha/y)
Total GH effect (tC/ha/y)
Grazing scenario
Conclusions and perspectives
The development of the hybrid