modeling to mitigate covid-19 - tamest
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UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
Modeling to mitigate COVID-19
Lauren Ancel MeyersMay 14, 2020
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
Decision support
CDC FluCode - Pandemic Model (2020)
15% 35%
High risk
Pandemic Exercise Tool (2013)
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
1. Spreads far and fast
Dec. 1
Dec. 8
Jan.
10
Jan.
22100
105
Cum
mul
ativ
e ca
ses
Cum
ulat
ive
case
s
Du et al. (2020) Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China. Emerging Infectious Diseases
425 cases
reported
12,400 cases
estimated
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
2. Forecasting deaths
bars grocery
parksmedical
schoolsrestaurants
at home
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
Ensemble forecasting
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
Stay
Hom
e W
ork
Safe
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Hos
pita
lizat
ions
/ De
aths
far more than 3000 deaths
3. What might happen?
hospitalizations
capacity
Schools closed Schools open
deaths
If policies are relaxed and transmission rebounds to half of baseline …
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
Stay
Hom
e W
ork
Safe
Lock
dow
n
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Hos
pita
lizat
ions
/ De
aths
~3000 deaths
Data-driven trigger
hospitalizations
capacity
What is the shortest lockdown required to prevent an overwhelming surge?
135 days of lockdown
Schools closed Schools open
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
Track and trigger
Hospital admissions
R0
Deaths
R0 > 4
R0 < 0.8 R0 ~ 0.95
UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/ [email protected]
Funding and teamSimon Cauchemez, Institute Pasteur
Ben Cowling, U Hong KongMaytal Dahan, TACC
Oscar Dowson, Northwestern UniversityZhanwei Du, UT
Daniel Duque Villarreal, NorthwesternSpencer Fox, UT
Kelly Gaither, TACCAlison Galvani, Yale
Neo Huang, Precima, LoyaltyOneEmily Javan, UT
Clay Johnston, Dell MedMichael Lachmann, Santa Fe Institute
David Morton, NorthwesternCiara Nugent, UTRemy Pasco, UT
Michaela Petty, UTKelly Pierce, TACC
Michael Pignone, Dell MedJames Scott, UTMauricio Tec, UT
Suzanna Wang, UTSpencer Woody, UT
US Centers for Disease Control and PreventionNational Institutes of Health
National Science FoundationTexas Advanced Computing Center