modelitec tm experiment results 5/7/2005 4/3/2006
DESCRIPTION
Tested Product (cont’d) ■Single stock analysis: ■Portfolio Simulation:TRANSCRIPT
ModelitecTM
Experiment Results5/7/2005 – 4/3/2006
Tested Product
■ Comprehensive, advanced and automated weekly stock picking strategies running on commercial platform□ Statistically analyzed and constantly optimized with current
data□ Over 10 years back-tested using Monte-Carlo simulation□ Strategy and stock diversification
■ Operating on systematically selected and constantly updated, high-volume US stocks group
■ Customizable market analysis strategy■ Advanced money management techniques■ Promotional web-based virtual portfolio manager
Tested Product (cont’d)
■ Single stock analysis:
■ Portfolio Simulation:
Tested Product (cont’d)
■ Web-based Tracking Portfolio:
Experiment Results
■ Experiment period: 5/7/05-4/3/06 (35 weeks)■ The experiment was conducted on a virtual
portfolio of $500,000■ The portfolio consisted of equity (selection from
350 stocks) and hedging, up to 5% of the portfolio value.
■ The portfolio was hedged using QQQQ put options (“at the money”)
■ Buy & Sell prices were derived from real-time trading
■ All stocks in the portfolio had average daily volume above $5 million.
Statistics
■ Portfolio Value: $578,860; Gain: 15.8%■ Equity Gain: 21.1%■ Options Gain: -4.8%■ Commissions: -0.5%■ Trades: 114, Winning: 67 (59%)■ Average Trade:
□ Winning: 11.7%□ Losing: -5%□ All: 4.8%
■ Sharpe Ratio (Weekly): 1.52
Comparison
■ Index Performance:
Index Gain (from 5/7) Gain (from 18/7)
NASDAQ 100 13.4% 7%
NASDAQ Composite 12.2% 7%
S&P 500 7.8% 4.8%
Russell 2000 14.8% 11.3%
Portfolio 15.8% 15.2%
Conclusions
■ The system requires 2-3 weeks “warm up” period■ The portfolio beat NASDAQ100 by 18%■ In the 33 weeks since 18/7/2005 the portfolio
bypassed NASDAQ100 by 117%■ In comparison with the computerized systems, 2-
3% of the Portfolio were lost due to slippage.■ The results match the expected range■ The system is scalable without major changes to
manage over $10 million.
Portfolio Value Line
Portfolio Value Line
$440,000
$460,000
$480,000
$500,000
$520,000
$540,000
$560,000
$580,000
$600,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Portfolio Value