modelling korus-aq with cam-chem
TRANSCRIPT
BenjaminGaubert1,L.Emmons1,J.Barré1 ,S.Tilmes1,K.Miyazaki2,K.Raeder3,J.L.Anderson3
ModellingKORUS-AQwithCAM-Chem
1Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory (ACOM), National Center forAtmospheric Research, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA2Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama 236-0001, Japan3Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe), National Center for AtmosphericResearch, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
WhyKorea?
TotalannualCOemissionsOharaetal.(2007)
Ø strongairqualitygradientsbothintimeandspaceØ RapidchangeinemissionsØ Alocalcontrastbetweenforests,citiesandIndustries
2005to20141980to2003
lineartrendinsurfaceNOxemissions(in10-11kg.m-2.s-1 perdecade)during2005–2014from
theaposterioriemissions
KORUS-AQcombinedassetsfromtheKoreanandU.S.atmosphericsciencecommunitiesandtheirsupportingorganizations(NIER,NASA,Universities,etc.)toimplementanintegratedobservingsystemforimprovingourunderstandingofAirQuality
Satellites- providebroadcoverage,continuity- butitneedsreliableinformationonnear-surfaceexposure.
Airbornesampling- providescriticalviewforevaluationstrategiesinconnectingground-basedandsatelliteobservations- Shortterm
Groundmonitoring- Itwillcontinuetobetheprimarymethodformonitoringexposure.- Coverageislimited.
Modeling- provide Airqualityforecastingandwarningservice
- butitneedsreliableinformationonemissioninventoryandsoon.
KORUS-AQ Goals• Improvecapabilityforsatelliteremotesensingofairquality
• Betterunderstandingofthefactorscontrollingairquality
• Testandimprovemodelsimulationofairquality
Question1:Howsignificantistheimpactofthelargepointsources(powerplantsandpetrochemicalplants)alongthewestcoasttotheairqualityofSMAtemporallyandspatially?
Question2:Canweidentify1)theportionofaerosolderivedfromsecondaryproductioninSMAandacrossKorea,and2)themajorsourcesandfactorscontrollingitsvariation?
Question3:IsozoneformationinSMANOxlimitedorVOClimited?Canwedeterminethebiogenicornaturalcontributionstoozoneproduction?
Question4:HowisSMAaffectedbytransportofairpollutionfromsourcesfromregionaltocontinentaltohemisphericscales?
Question5:HowwelldoKORUS-AQobservationssupportcurrentemissionsestimates(e.g.,NOx,VOCs,SOx,NH3)bymagnitudeandsector?
ØCESM2ØGridspacing:0.9x1.25⁰ØCAM6 physics/SpecifieddynamicsfromGEOSØChemistryMOZARTTroposphereStratosphere(TS1),mam4aerosolscheme,SOA-VBSØCLM5withprognosticMEGANbiogenicemissionsØEmissions:üAnthropogenic: KORUS-CREATEinEast-Asia,HTAP2andCCMIotherwiseüBiomassBurning:FireINventoryfromNCAR(FINN1.5)(Wiedinmyeretal.2011)üPrescribedMethanederivedfromsurfaceobservations,updatedfilefromCMIP6(Meinshausenetal.2017)
TagsName TagsRegion TagssectorCO01 Global AnthroCO02 Global BBCO03 Global OceanCO04 Global BiogenicCO05 Korea AnthroCO06 Japan AnthroCO07 East-Asia AnthroCO08 Europe AnthroCO09 NAM AnthroCO10 RestofNH AnthroCO11 SH AnthroMapofCOtagsfromanthropogenicsourcesonly
(CO05toCO11)
DC8ObservationsØ SimpleevaluationoftheCAM-Chemsimulationandsensitivityexperiments
Ø Yellowsea:pollutiontransportcapability(includingrecirculation)andinflowquantifications(blackbox)
Ø SeoulMetropolitanArea(redbox)
SensitivitytoNOxemissionsØEmissions(Bottom-upcase1):üAnthropogenic: KORUS-CREATEinEast-Asia,HTAP2andCCMIotherwise
üBiomassBurning:FireINventoryfromNCAR(FINN1.5)(Wiedinmyeretal.2011)
üPrescribedsurfacemethane(CMIP6)
SensitivitytoNOxemissionsØEmissions(Bottom-upcase1):üAnthropogenic: KORUS-CREATEinEast-Asia,HTAP2andCCMIotherwise
üBiomassBurning:FireINventoryfromNCAR(FINN1.5)(Wiedinmyeretal.2011)
üPrescribedsurfacemethane(CMIP6)
ØEmissions(Top-downcase2):üAllthesamebutwithdifferentsurfaceNOemissions(soil,anthropogenicandBB)
ØEmissions(Top-downcase):üMIROC-ChemmodelwithEDGARandGFED
üDirectconstraintsonNOxemissionsfromNO2assimilation(OMI,SCIAMACHY,andGOME-2)
üIndirectconstraintsthroughMOPITT-CO,MLSO3 andHNO3 andTES-O3
ØYellowseapollutionlevelsaresimilartoSeoulv Withsignificantlevelsoftransportedpollutionv Averageozoneof60ppb
Ø Secondarypollutantsareoverestimated(CH2O,O3),whichleadstoagoodaverageCOduetosecondaryproduction
ØCH4 variationsandVOC’sarelargelyunderestimated
ØPreliminaryresultsofCESM2/CAM-ChemØGridspacingsurelyplayarole
v Needtoidentifylargescaletransportandbackgroundv Avoidcomparisonwithlocalandunresolvedplumesv Makesurethetemporalsamplingiscoherent
ØIdentifycontributionfromstratosphericozoneØEvaluatechemicalregimesofozoneproduction
Conclusions
ØAssimilationofMOPITTV7withmeteorologicalobservations
Ø ImproveensembledesigntoestimateemissionsandconcentrationsØ Uncertaintyofemissionsand(chemistrybalance)using
v anensembleofemissioninventories(anthropogenicandBBseparately)frombothtop-downandbottom-upinventories
ØPerturbingofchemicalkineticsofkeyreactions(Ridleyetal.2017,GRL)
Perspectives