modelling regional impacts of trends and policies on eu and global level: integrating agriculture,...

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies on EU and global level:

Integrating agriculture, land use, environmental and socio-economic aspects with EUruralis 2.0

Laxenburg, November 29th 2007

Henk Westhoek, Bas Eickhout and

Hans van Grinsven

Modelling regional impacts of trends and policies 2


Shifting approaches

Policy agenda• Sustainable development:

– integrated and coherent policies– stronger global dimension

Scientific agenda• Complex questions:

– Assessment and balancing trade-offs in 3-P domain– from technical solutions to integrated policies,

combining policy areas, scales and longer time horizons


Examples of emerging questions

• Effect of liberalisation of the CAP on nutrient emissions and biodiversity;

• Effect of nutrient policies (including WFD) on agricultural production, rural economies, land use, GHG emissions and biodiversity;

• Effect of biofuel directive on food production/prices, fertiliser use, nutrient emissions and biodiversity (land use),

• Not only in Europe but also elsewhere.


Nutrient policies (N, P) Costs

Emission to air / exceedence critical loads

Agriculture

GHG emissions Climate change


Nutrient policies (N, P) Costs

Emission to air / exceedence critical loads

Agriculture

Emission to water

Land use

Rural economy

Biodiversity: terrestrial and aquatic;

GHG emissions Climate change

Major drivers


Drivers for biodiversity and health effects

CAP, WTOEU N – dir’s• land use• N-intensity• technology

• area• NH3 • NO3

Targets

Biodiversity• terrestrial• aquatic

Health

Kyoto, LRTAP

EU N - dir’s• energy intensity• energy source• technology

• (infrastructure)• NOx• …….

Agriculture Energy&trafficEffects

Population & GDP

rural

water air

remote

Eururalis 2.0

Discussing the future of rural Europe

www.eururalis.eu


Model framework Eururalis


Major driving force I: macro-economic growth

GDP per capita growth: 2000-2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

EU15 EU10 High Inc C&S Amer Asia Africa

A1 Global Economy B1 Global Cooperation

A2 Transatlantic Markets B2 Regional Communities


Major driving force II: EU population

Total population EU27 (millions)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

A1 Global Economy

B1 GlobalCooperation

A2 ContinentalMarkets

B2 RegionalCommunities


World Trade Growth in Global Economy (A1) scenario (% change, 2001-30)

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Other impacts CAP1 impact CAP2 impact


Changing role of farming: decreasing economical significance


Changing role of farming: importance for land use and landscape

• Agri land-use remains strong (>40%)

• High impact on carbon, erosion, biodiversity, nutrients, landscape


B1 Global Cooperation 2030


B2 Regional Communities 2030


Biodiversity indicator


Terrestrial biodiversity declines in baseline: fragmentation


Biodiversity loss in nature areas

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2000 2050

fragmentation

Infra

Climate

Nitrogen

MSA


Policy matters: are biofuels the solution? 2030 (GE)

Low ambition High ambition


Trade off: landuse change in Latin-America

Total arable land in Europe and Brazil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Are

a in

Mh

a EU-27; Low ambition (5.75%)

Brazil; Low ambition (5.75%)

EU-27; High ambition (11.5%)

Brazil; High ambition (11.5%)


More biofuels: more N needed

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2030 2050

N i

n T

g/y

r

Energy crops 2ndgeneration

Energy crops 1stgeneration

Cropland

Grassland

+13%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2030 2050

N i

n T

g/y

r

Energy crops 2ndgeneration

Energy crops 1stgeneration

Cropland

Grassland

+5%

Source: IMAGE (Bouwman et al., 2006)

Baseline

GC-extra biofuels


CAP, WTOEU N – dir’s• land use• N-intensity• technology

• area• NH3 • NO3

Targets

Biodiversity• terrestrial• aquatic

Health

Kyoto, LRTAP

EU N - dir’s• energy intensity• energy source• technology

• (infrastructure)• NOx• …….

Agriculture Energy&trafficEffects

Population & GDP

rural

water air

remote


NO3 in groundwaterN & P in

surface water

NH3N2O,CH4,CO2

fertilizer

Agriculturemanure

EU: environmental legislation

Kyoto protocolThematic Strategy on Air PollutionNational Emission Ceiling DirectiveIPPC -DirectiveCLRTAP-Gothenborg ProtocolAir Quality Directives

Thematic CAP reform + C.C. Animal welfare Rural Development Soil Strategy Birds and habitats directives

Nitrates DirectiveIPPC / CLRTAP

Nitrates Directive Water Framework Directive Groundwater Directive

Nitrates Directive Water Framework Directive


LEITAP/IMAGE

CAPRI CLUE-s

Possible linking of models

MITERRA

Biodiversity model: terrestrial / aquatic

Drivers:•Population•GDP•Energy prices•Biofuel policy•Trade policies

Drivers:•Climate policies•Environmental policies

RAINS/ GAINS


The EC4MACS model system

GAINSPOLES PRIMES

CAPRI

TM5 EMEP

CCE-CL

TREMOVE

BENEFITS

Global/hemisphericboundary conditions

European policy drivers

Energy

Transport

Atmosphere

Agriculture

Ecosystems

GEM-E3

Cost-effectiveness

Impacts


Complex questions complex integrated models?

• Partly yes, but …

• Questions link different policy or scientific areas

• For many areas models already exist

• Investing in combination of existing models probably more efficient than development of new models

• Policy questions are not always complex also maintain less complex approaches

modelling regional impacts of trends and policies on eu and global level: integrating agriculture,...

Documents

landscape slide

policies2 slide

fragmentation slide

policies9 slide

biodiversity land use

economical significance

macroeconomic growth

hans van grinsven slide