70th ETSAP meeting

Modelling the energy demand in Spain with MED-Pro

CIEMAT (Madrid), 17 November 2016

Carlos Garcia BarqueroHead Department of Planning and Studies

IDAE

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IDAE´s experience on energy simulation and prospective studies

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• Methodology: EUROSTAT (ESR) and IEA Energy Statistics

• Prospects:

End-use and RES: Monitoring and prospects of energy consumption bysector (main end-use subsectors in industry, transport, services andhouseholds) and fuel (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, electricity, biofuels, biomass,solar, wind and H2);

Energy demand forecasts: in the framework of medium and long-termenergy prospective national projects;

• Tools: country adaptation and application of energy models, i.e. MEDEE-EUR,MURE, EFOM-ENV, POLES and MED-Pro for Spain; MEDEE-SUD for Algeriaand Morocco

• Carried out under the framework of the project “Sectoral studies on energy monitoring (SES)”

• Recent studies:

o Industry: cement, glass, steel alloyso Transport: urban buses, freight transport, private carso Services: shopping centers, hotels, hospitals, private offices, universities,

institutes and public schools; heat pumpso Residential: electricity and heating & cooling EUROSTAT´s surveys, SPAHOUSEC

studies o Renewable: biomass and solar thermal panels

End-use and RES studies

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•Final energy demand long-term simulation:

- End-use energy model developed from MEDEE suite, with focus on energy efficiency &technological improvement

- Submodels: Industry, Transport, Residential, Services and Agriculture

- Disaggregation by sub-sectors, end-uses and intensive processes

- Wide level of insight: 450 equations and 900 variables

• Advantages:

- Flexibility at structure and disaggregation level

- Technological progress and socio-economic changes are main drivers

- Energy efficiency, saving potential and fuel substitution are also considered

- Long-term uncertainty is approached by means of alternative scenarios

• Limitations:

- Significant amount of data for the base year

- Coherent assumptions for the establishment of scenarios are required

• Simulation period:

- Base year, calibration year and up to 30 forecast years for simulation

MED-Pro: Energy Demand Model

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5

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Flexible disaggregation

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Structure of the model

INPUTS RESULTS

ANNUAL DATA OPTIONAL SUBMODELS SOCIOECONOMICl Socioeconomics Basic Disaggregation Desagregación sectorial F Industrial production

F GDP Macroeconomic consistence F Stock of vehicles

F Population Industry F Trade

F Households • Thermal uses • Industrial Subsectors • Energy Intensive Products F Stock of dwellings

F Equipment ownership • Electric uses • Construction • Steel F Equipment

F Employment • Non energy uses • Private vehicles by types

Transport

l Technicals • ŸPrivate vehicles • Motocycles

F Fuel efficiencies • Public passengers SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION F Specific consumptions Road F Intensive Products

Rail F Vehicles

Air F End uses- Household sector

PARAMETERS • ŸGoods F Tertiary Dwellings

Road F Elasticities Rail F Logistic coeficients Sea

F Conversion coeficients • International sea DEMAND BY ENERGY SOURCE TYPEAgriculture F by industrial branches

• Tractores • Energy Intensive Porducts F by transport mode and type of vehicle

SCENARIOS • Pumping F Electrical appliances

l Socioeconomics • ŸFishing boats F End uses- Tertiary sector

F Population • Thermal uses F by agriculture uses

F Economic growth • Electric uses

F Industrila growth Households

F Energy prices • Cooking and other thermal uses • Urban by zone • Heat Water

F Productivity • ŸLighting and other electrical consumptions • Rural by zone • ŸHeating

• ŸUrban by social class • ŸAir conditioning INDICATORSl Technicals • ŸRural by social class • Electrical apllications F Energy Intensities F Efficiency improvements Tertiary F Elasticities

F Technology penetration • Thermal uses • ŸSubsectors • ŸPublic lighting F Energy expenses

F Market trends • Electric uses F CO2 emissions

• Informal sector

• Public passengers

by bus size

• Freight by truck size

DEMAND PROJECTION MODULE

STRUCTURE

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9

10

11

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Modelling with Med-Pro: main sources of information and tasks

Tasks

• In-depth analysis of energy consumptionfor the base year

• Research and assessment of sectoralenergy perspectives

• Sectoral disaggregation and preparationof sub-models within the tool

•Coherent assumptions for theestablishment of scenarios and assignmentof variables for each sector

•Econometric contrast of electricity for thewhole simulation period

Sources

• IDAE´s own sources (EE & REStechnologies)

• IDAE´s energy monitoring and technologydeployment studies

• Statistics and socio-economic forecastsfrom public and private institutions

• Medium and long-term trends providedSpanish Government, European Commissionand other international bodies (OCDE, UN,etc.)

• Manufacturer associations and privatecompanies of the energy sector

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Example of global scenarios for MED-ProReference• Globalization, economic development and growth in world trade• Similar present economic and energy trends• XX% annual GDP growth for 2000-2030• EU energy market progress• Oil prices from YY $05/bbl in 2000 to ZZ $05/bbl in 2030. Gas prices …• Light decrease of energy taxes

Lower growth

• Downturn, with lower economic growth (GDP) and social integration

• High increase of oil prices and subsequent oscillations

• Similar evolution of energy taxes

Hight reduction of ENV impacts

• Greater economic growth (GDP), lower during first years

• Substantial progress in climate change EU policy, limited emissions of GHG in the energy sector

• Lower environmental impacts, targeted fiscal policy and harmonization at EU level

• Similar increase of oil prices, greater for gas and lower for coal

• Significant increase of energy taxes for end-users, internalization of externalcosts and environmental benefits

Greater growth

• Greater economic growth (GDP), in particular during first years

• Intensive market, wide economic integration and lower public participation in the economic growth

• Similar evolution of energy prices

• Decrease of energy taxes

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Reference Scenario: main inputs

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

$95/b

arr

il

Year

Oil international prices

30,0

32,0

34,0

36,0

38,0

40,0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Millo

ne

s

Year

Evolution of Population

Source: INE

25303540455055606570758085

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Billo

ne

s p

tas. 1

986

Year

Evolution of GDP

Source: MEH

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bas

e 1

995=100

Evolution of GDP by sector

Agricultura Industria Servicios

Source: MEH

Source: EC

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Reference Scenario: main results

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Final consumption (ktoe) 64.961 72.026 79.916 87.726 92.413 98.063 103.715

Final Energy Intensity (tep/Mpta 86) 1,66 1,73 1,65 1,62 1,54 1,44 1,32

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

kto

e

(toe/M

pta

)

Evolution of final energy consumption and energy intensity in Spain

Energía (ktep) Intensidad total (tep/Mpta 86)

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Reference Scenario: results for household sector

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo de energía sobre PIB (tep/106pta)

Consumo energético de los hogares

Intensidad total

Gasóleo11,1%

GLP22,6%

Gas natural10,1%

Electricidad32,1%

Solar0,2%

2000

Combustibles sólidos24,0 %

Gasóleo11,2%

GLP17,0%

Gas natural17,2%

Electricidad36,0%

Solar2,0%

2010

Combustibles sólidos16,7 %

Gasóleo10,9%

GLP15,4%

Gas natural20,9%

Electricidad36,6%

Solar2,2%

2020

Combustibles sólidos13,9 %

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Intensidad energética en el sector residencial: consumo por hogar (tep/hogar)

Consumo energético por hogar Consumo eléctrico por hogar

Consumo no eléctrico por hogar

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• MEDPro (EEf)

• REMap (RES)• TIMES (EMod)

• ECf

• RESc-b

• ECp

• RESc-b

SINERGIA

MINETUR

IDAESGPES/CIEMAT

Results Results

Base Input

Input

Contrast

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Models interaction under SINERGIA (so far)

MedPro–TIMES sectoral fitting

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