modelling the uk energy system: practical insights …...©2014 energy technologies institute llp -...
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©2014 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 1
©2014 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Modelling the UK Energy System: Practical Insights for Technology Development & Policy MakingJo Coleman, Strategy Director
©2014 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 2
Energy System Modelling Environment -overview
Power
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Infrastructure
Demand scenarios
Energy resources
Technologyprofiles
Global parameters
Energy systemblueprints
A national energy system design tool, integrating power, heat, transport and infrastructure
Modelling approachLeast cost optimisation (policy neutral)Back-casting from 2050Probabilistic treatment of uncertaintySpatial & temporal factors
Informed by ETI members/advisors
Internationally peer reviewed
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ESME: in use by the ETI, it’s members and partners
• ESME developed to inform technology development choices and targets
• ESME used to inform policy work by DECC and CCC on a range of issues
• Individual Members are developing own versions for specific countries of interest
• At Members request, ETI has developed an EU prototype
• Academic research projects ongoing (UCL)
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Informing policy to underpin market developments
UK and InternationalAdvisory boards with ETI staff members
Data as per October 2013
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
No Targets Perfect lowcost route
Practicallow cost
route
No buildingefficiencypackages
No Nuclear No CCS No Bio No OffshoreWind
No CCSNo Bio
No nuclear
No building packages
No offshore wind
Some technologies appear more valuable than othersPoor system optimisation doubles the cost of a 2050 UK low carbon energy system
Additional cost of delivering 2050 -80% CO2 energy system NPV £ bn 2010-2050
1% of 2050 GDP
1% of 2050 GDP
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CCS is high value as it creates optionsapplication of the same infrastructure for power, industry, enabling bioenergy usage and H2 production
ETI energy system modelling points to ‘energy system-wide’ value of CCS extending beyond low carbon electricity generation
‘Negative emissions’
Enables continued use of fossil fuels where very expensive to replace
Low carbon electricity from fossil fuels(DECC Demos)
CCS with biomass(Drax programme)
Gasification applications(ETI demos)
Flexible low carbon fuels (hydrogen, syngas)
Low carbon energy diversity, portfolio of flexible low carbon energy vectors, option value & robustness in meeting carbon targets
CCS on industrial emissions (To follow)
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Infrastructure challenges predominantly mid and downstreamMean Reference Case 2050
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Removing a key option leads to very different infrastructure requirementsNo CCS Sensitivity 2050
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Preparedness – What is required?Innovation in business models, cost reduction and to build investor confidence
• Continue to drive efficiency measures – Homes, Cars, Industry
• Prove key business models at scale i.e.– Nuclear plants 1 and 2– 2 CCS full chain projects built, backbone for
further development– 2% of housing stock (500,000 houses) in whole
house retrofit, including heat supply– 2% of UK car sales (40,000) alternatively fuelled
cars sold per year– Bioenergy value chain
• Drive down costs– Offshore Wind, Tidal, Wave
• Develop knowledge base for choices i.e.
– Develop understanding of issues related to new energy vectors ie H2 infrastructure, transport, metering, safety regulations
– Bioenergy scientific evidence and regulation
– Gas grid repurposing /decommissioning
• Engage stakeholders– Consumers, voters, public
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Conclusions
• The transition is affordable but poor system optimisation easily doubles the cost• CCS and bioenergy are key enablers; national decisions by 2025 are central to the design
of the energy system• There is much to be done to prove the credibility of these choices• Preparedness involves developing options and understanding trade offs, proving the
technical operating business and regulatory models at scale• Today, a broad range of alternatives needs to continue to be developed but wide scale
rollout of multiple alternatives and their supporting infrastructure is unaffordable• By 2025 we need to have agreed these choices and have a plan for delivering the
required infrastructures– Plans for withdrawing from infrastructures that will not be required by 2050 are also
required
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For more information about the ETI visit www.eti.co.uk
For the latest ETI news and announcements email [email protected]
The ETI can also be followed on Twitter at twitter.com/the_ETI
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For all general enquiries telephone the ETI on 01509 202020.
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Electricity system fundamentally different with or without CCSUK electricity generation capacity doubles & increase is entirely renewables
Hydrogen
Renewables
CCS
With CCS No CCSUK electricity capacity
Gas
with CCS No CCS
NuclearCoal
Gas
NuclearRenewables
Interconnectors
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Electricity system fundamentally different with or without CCSTrajectories alter from mid 2020’s
Hydrogen
Renewables
Gas CCSCoal
UK electricity capacity
Gas
NuclearCoal
Gas
NuclearRenewables
Interconnectors
With CCS
No CCSfrom 2025 the UK is on a trajectory to 2050 …..
2030+ 20%
2040+ 80%
2050+ 100%
No CCS
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-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2030 2040 2050
Widespread CCS delivers £10-30bn p.a. UK system level cost saving from 2030
Net saving£13bn
Net saving£20bn
Net saving£32bn
£bn
Transport
Power and conversion
Infrastructure
Buildings and heat
Fuel and resources
Industry
CCS increases need forFuelSite spaceOperational resources
CCS reduces need for more expensive hybrid vehicles
Building retrofits
Alternative (intermittent) power generation capacity and associated transmission infrastructure
Annual cost saving
Annual cost penalty