modello di emissioni inquinanti atmosferici da incendi boschivi mihaela mircea, gaia righini...
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Modello di emissioni inquinanti atmosferici da incendi boschivi
Mihaela Mircea, Gaia RighiniNational Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable
Economic Development (ENEA), via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, 40129, Bologna, Italy
Sandro FinardiARIANET Srl, Via Gilino, 9, 20128, Milan, Italy
Plenaria Bologna, 24 marzo 2011
Sviluppo MINNI
Wild land fires
Despite several good examples that show the impact of domestic and extra EU wild-land fires on air quality and that highlight how this contribution can determine an exceedance of the daily average concentration of 50 µg/m3 for the PM101, no exhaustive method for the identification and the quantification of the impact of wild-land fires episodes have been developed and communicated to the Commission in the framework of the annual report on air quality assessment. (Guidance on natural contributions, Brussels, 15.02.2011)
Modello di emissioni da incendi – stima della quantità di inquinanti emessa dai fuocchi
AreaCEFLEF=Emiss speciespecie
Emiss - emissioni (kg)
EF – fattore di emissione per specie (kg/kg)
FL – massa di biomassa per area (kg/m2)
CE – efficienza di combustione
Area - area bruciata (m2)
Specie emesse:
Gas: CO,CH4,NH3,NMHC,NOx,SO2,CO2
Aerosol:PM2.5,PM10
Approccio “bottom-up”
1 URFA
2 INCO
3 AIRP
4 OART
5 ARAB
6 RICE
7 CROP
8 PAST
9 HAGR
10 BROA
11 CONI
12 MIXF
13 GRAS
14 SHRU
15 SAND
16 BARE
17 SPAR
18 ICEF
19 INWE
20 COWE
21 WATE
22 INWA
FARM
URFA
INCO
AIRP
OART
ARAB
RICE
CROP
PAST
HAGR
BROA
CONI
MIXF
GRAS
SHRU
SAND
BARE
SPAR
ICEF
INWE
COWE
WATE
INWA
1artificial surfaces
2agricultural surface
3 forest
4 grass
5 mixed
7 other
6 water
FARM
3VEG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
agric forest grass mixed
emis
sions(
ktones
)
VEG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGR BROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR
emis
sions(
ktones
)
EFFIS: area bruciata e emissioni in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005
3VEG
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
agric forest grass mixed
burn
t ar
ea (ha)
Domain
Italy
Total burnt area in domain: 243889 haTotal burnt area in Italy: 76666 ha
VEG
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGR BROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR
burn
t ar
ea (ha)
Domain
Italy
Total burnt area in domain: 253752 haTotal burnt area in Italy: 79463 ha
EFFIS: emissioni di varie specie in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005
3VEG
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4
emis
sions(
ktones
)
Domain
Italy
3VEG
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
emis
sions(
ktones
)
Domain
Italy
Total emissions in domain: 7894 ktonesTotal emissions in Italy: 1979 ktones
VEG
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4
emis
sions(
ktones
)
Domain
Italy
EFFIS-year
VEG
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
emis
sions(
ktones
)Domain
Italy
EFFIS-year
Total emissions in domain: 8360 ktonesTotal emissions in Italy: 2037 ktones
MODIS: area bruciata e emissioni in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005
3VEG
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
agric forest grass mixed
burn
t ar
ea (ha)
Total burnt area in domain: 385668 ha
VEG
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGRBROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR
burn
t ar
ea (ha)
Total burnt area in domain: 457256 ha
3VEG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
agric forest grass mixed
emis
sions(
ktones
)
Total emissions in domain:8216 ktones
VEG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
ARAB RICE CROP PAST HAGR BROA CONI MIXF GRAS SHRU SPAR
emis
sions(
ktones
)
Total emissions in domain: 10520 ktones
EFFIS: emissioni di varie specie in funzione del numero di classi di vegetazioneLuglio 2005
3VEG
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4
emis
sions(
ktones
)
3VEG
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
emis
sions(
ktones
)
Total emissions in domain:8216 ktones
VEG
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
e_PM10 e_PM25 e_NOx e_NH3 e_SO2 e_NMHCS e_CH4
emis
sions(
ktones
)
MODIS
EFFIS-year
VEG
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
emis
sions(
ktones
)MODIS
EFFIS-year
Total emissions in domain: 10520 ktones
Confronto le emissioni derivati da MODIS e EFFIS
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
e_CO2
e_CO
e_PM
10
e_PM
25
e_NOx
e_NH3
e_SO2
e_NM
HCS
e_CH4
(VEG-V
EG3)
/VEG3
EFFIS
MODIS
FAS-FMI (Sofiev et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6833–6847, 2009)
“…admixture of gaseous species is emitted in addition to PM: 94% of CO, 1.3% of HCHO, 2.9% of NOx as NO2 ,1.4% of NH3 , and 0.4% of SO2 (mass fractions as species). The gaseous emission flux is assumed to be 7.9 times larger than the particulate mass flux. These fractions are assumed to be valid for all European land use types.”
“We assumed that inside the fire plumes, the AOD was entirely determined by the biomass-burning products. It is partly supported by S07 analysis, as they found that more than 80% of PM2.5 during a specific episode in May 2006 was originated from fires. We therefore attributed all systematic discrepancy between the observed and calculated column AOD to errors in the emission rates, and corrected the emission factors accordingly.The resulting emission coefficients for the European domain are the following: 0.035 kg tPM MJ−1 forest, 0.018 kg tPM MJ−1 for grassland.”
“For simple fire-detection purposes, the fire-classified pixel is attributed with the 4-μm brightness temperature T4 (this channel is the most-representative and least affected by other factors that are not connected with fires). The method is also known as hot-spot counting and the pixel temperature is further referred to in this study as the TA-value.”“As TA, the FRP data are included into the level 2 Fire Products (MOD14 for Terra and MYD14 for Aqua satellites) and are available with a comparatively short delay (usually within 1–2 days), which makes it possible to utilise them”
Confronto ENEA-MODIS con FAS-FMI
CO
CH
4*1
0
NH
3*1
0
NM
HC
*10
NO
X*1
0
PM
10
PM
2.5
SO
2*10
0.0E+00
2.0E+08
4.0E+08
6.0E+08
8.0E+08
1.0E+09
1.2E+09
1.4E+09
1.6E+09
3.6E+08
1.4E+08
3.9E+07
1.8E+08 1.6E+08
4.2E+07 3.5E+07 2.3E+07
4.6E+09
6.9E+086.4E+08
1.4E+09
6.3E+08
4.6E+08
2.0E+08
ENEA/MODIS-BAPFMI/FAS
ENEA-MODIS: Differences in emissions (kg) from wildfires due to B, CE and ei for July 2007.
Emissions(kg) co ch4 nh3 nmhc nox pm10 pm25 so2 co2
Max7.82E
+083.25E
+079.29E
+065.02E
+074.11E
+071.01E+
088.38E+0
74.97E+0
6 1.46E+10
Orig3.58E
+081.41E
+073.90E
+061.83E
+071.56E
+074.18E+
073.54E+0
72.31E+0
6 6.83E+09
max/orig 2.18 2.30 2.38 2.74 2.63 2.42 2.37 2.15 2.14
Conclusioni preliminari
• La descrizione della vegetazione con più classi aumenta le emissioni
• I valori dei FL, CE e EF per le 3 classi di vegetazione non sono derivati da quelli per la vegetazione descritta con più classi
• Le emissioni di EFFIS e MODIS sono diverse perché le area bruciate sono diverse: per esempio EFFIS esclude molti fuochi in area agricole.
• EFFIS mostra che le emissioni degli incendi all’estero sono più grandi di quelli sull’Italia.
• La variazione massima delle emissioni dovuta ai parametri che caratterizzano i fuochi è circa un fattore 3 – stime finale in corso…
• Tra FAS e ENEA c’è una differenza di un fattore 10: approcci completamente diversi
Problemi nelle stime delle emissioni dai fuochi in Italia
Quale sorgente usare per identificare i VERI fuochi: EFFIS o MODIS?
Quali valori usare per FL,CE e EF? C’è la possibilità di aver valori rappresentative per l’area mediterranea?
Come fare la “calibrazione” del modello che stima le emissioni dei fuochi?
Come stimare l’altezza dei fuochi e il ciclo giornaliero?
In Italia, il trasporto delle sabbie sahariane e il contributo antropico alto all’aerosol esclude nella maggior parte dei casi
l’utilizzo dei dati satellitari per rispondere alle ultime tre domande
Open wild-fires: guidance on natural sources (15 febbraio 2011)
The average of the PM10 concentrations registered in the 15 days before and in the 15 days after the episode in the reference time series is used as the background concentration. The difference between the concentrations measured during the episode and the above mentioned 30 days (episode days excluded) should be considered as contribution of the wild-land fires episodes. In case that the duration of the event is significant compared to 30 days, a more elaborate scheme may be necessary to adequately estimate the concentration levels without the wild land fire contribution.
Compile data of a simultaneous time series for the regional background modelling, regional background station) relevant to the assessed site or area. The reference series that is not obtained through direct measurement has to be thoroughly validated and fit for purpose.
The burning (naturally or man-made) of non-managed and managed forests and other vegetation, excluding agricultural burning of stubble etc.
Wild-land fires are usually of anthropogenic origin, and may be prevented or controlled with appropriate actions to a significant extent. Member States should therefore effectively address this contribution in view of the possibility of subtraction only if the emissions are transported from regions outside the Member State (see Section 3.2.4) and when provisions of Directive 2008/50/EC related to the transboundary pollution have been applied. If the fire has extended from another Member State any deductions of the common contribution need to be accompanied with the description of measures taken at the short term to eliminate the fire and reduce the exposure of the population.