modernization and inequality
TRANSCRIPT
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Modernization and Inequality
Ronald Inglehart
LCSR, Higher School of Economics and
University of Michigan
Higher School of Economics, Moscow
November 16, 2015
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Early capitalism exploited workers ruthlessly, driving wages
down toward the subsistence level.
In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, labor unions won
the right to organize, giving workers bargaining power
against factory owners. Marxist-inspired political parties
mobilized the working class, and workers increasingly
voted for these parties. This social class voting made
workers a significant political factor: they elected
governments that protected unemployed or retired workers
from starvation.
A politically mobilized working class brought diminishing
income inequality.
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Eventually, the success of the welfare state made
economic redistribution less salient.
Moreover, an intergenerational shift made
Postmaterialist values increasingly widespread in
high-income countries.
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Intergenerational value differences in 6 West
European countries, 1970
Figure 1. Value type by age group, among the Publics of Britain, France, West Germany,Italy, Belgium and The Netherlands in 1970.
Source: European Community survey of February, 1970; based on original 4-itemMaterialist/Postmaterialist values battery.
Reprinted from Inglehart, 1990: 76.
15-24(Postwar
generation)
25-3435-4445-5455-6465 +Ages:0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Materialist
Postmaterialist
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The New Politics Dimension and the
Economic Left-Right Dimension.
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Postmaterialists emphasized new non-
economic issues that cut across class lines.
Postmaterialist causes such as
environmental protection, anti-war
movements and gender equality became
increasingly prominent in the politics of
developed societies, and emphasis on
economic redistribution declined in political
parties’ election campaigns.
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The decline of social class voting, 1945-1992
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With the shift from manufacturing to the
service sector, the percentage of industrial
workers in high-income societies declined.
Globalization further weakened the
bargaining power of Western workers: they
were directly competing with low-cost
workers in China, India and Southeast Asia.
Emphasis on economic redistribution
declined.
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Since about 1970, income inequality has
risen dramatically in most industrial
societies. The economic gains of the past
few decades have gone almost entirely to
the top ten percent, mainly the top one
percent. Today, income inequality in the
U.S. is even greater than it was in 1900.
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The top decile’s share of total income in Europe
and the United States, 1900-2010
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Since the collapse of communism, income
inequality has risen even more sharply in
Russia and China than in the U.S. or Great
Britain.
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Net Household Income Inequality Trends:
Russia, China and the West, 1981-2007 (Gini indices)
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Conservative economists argue that market
forces will eventually offset the sharply-rising
trend toward income inequality:
Though industrialization led to the decline of
the agricultural employment, it created even
larger numbers of high-paid jobs in the
industrial sector.
Similarly, it is claimed, the shift from
industrial manufacturing will create large
numbers of high-paid jobs in the knowledge
sector.
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But it doesn’t seem to be doing so.
Although the decline of industrial jobs has
been more than offset by rising employment
in the service sector, this is largely
producing relatively poorly-paid jobs.
Jobs in the high-technology sector (such as
Microsoft,Google,pharmaceuticals) are well-
paid– but the percentage of people working
in the high-technology sector has been flat
in the last 25 years.
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Percentage of Total Employment in Information and
Communication Technology Sector in Five Advanced
Economies, 1995-2011
Germany
United Kingdom
Sweden
Canada France
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
1995 1997 2000 2004 2007 2010 2011
Per
cen
tage
Em
plo
ymen
t in
Info
rmat
ion
an
d C
om
mu
nic
atio
n T
ech
no
logy
Se
cto
r
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• Today, computer programs are not only
replacing low-skilled jobs. Increasingly,
they are replacing doctors, lawyers,
professors, and other highly-educated
professionals.
• Large corporations have taken over the
medical profession, computerizing or
outsourcing many jobs and reducing
professionals to a commodity.
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• It is widely-known that– despite massive
economic growth-- since 1970, the real
incomes of less-educated workers in the
U.S. have been stagnant.
• Since 1990, this has also been true of
people with university degrees– and even
of people with post-graduate degrees.
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• The U.S. economy has grown greatly
since 1990, but the gains in real income
have gone almost entirely to the top one
percent.
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• Today, the real conflict of interest in
advanced industrial societies is no longer
between the working class and the middle
class. It is between the top one percent
and the remaining 99 percent of the
population.
• The electorates have not yet become
mobilized along these lines– partly
because low-income voters are mobilized
by non-economic issues such as abortion
or same-sex marriage.
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• But during the past 25 years, the publics of
most countries have been growing
increasingly concerned about the problem
of rising income inequality.
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-2,50 -1,50 -0,50 0,50 1,50 2,50 3,50 4,50
MacedoniaSouth Korea
TurkeyBulgariaPortugal
DenmarkPhilippines
South AfricaZimbabwe
SpainAlbania
AzerbaijanFrance
UruguayItaly
JordanSwitzerland
New ZealandTaiwanBelgiumNorwayIceland
PakistanRomania
JapanMexico
NetherlandsArmenia
LatviaGeorgiaCroatia
BrazilAustralia
PeruGreat Britain
NigeriaMalta
CanadaBosnia
HungaryUnited States
IrelandSlovakia
PolandSweden
IndiaNorthern Ireland
AustriaLithuania
FinlandMoldova
ColombiaArgentina
SloveniaBelarus
ChileCzech Rep
MoroccoGermany
TurkeyUkraine
ChinaRussiaEgypt
Estonia
Changing Attitudes toward Income Inequality, 1989-2014
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END
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This report was presented at the 5th LCSR International Annual Conference “Cultural and Economic Changes under Cross-national Perspective”.
November 16 – 20, 2015 – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia.
http://lcsr.hse.ru/en/conf2015
Настоящий доклад был представлен на V ежегодной международной конференции ЛССИ «Культурные и экономические
изменения в сравнительной перспективе».
16-20 ноября 2015 года – НИУ ВШЭ, Москва, Россия.
http://lcsr.hse.ru/en/conf2015