modernized crypto assets - stanford...
TRANSCRIPT
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Modernized Crypto AssetsReducing Volatility to Produce an ETF Style Commodity for Crypto
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Quick Refresher
● Problem● Project
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Problem - Refresher
• Crypto is massively volatile • No crypto asset w. smooth index effect*
• Bundles are too highly correlated• Contain undesirable assets
S&P 500 Chart. Unlike stocks no crypto asset exists which smoothly tracks the movement of the market.
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Project - Refresher
• Automated money management for crypto• Intelligently moves $ between USD & crypto • Works for all major currencies • Money moves based upon prediction algorithms
62%
USD
BTC
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Presentation Structure
● Data● Sentiment
● RNN Training● RNN Analyzing ● RNN Trading
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Data Exploration -> Bitcoin
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Data Exploration -> Bitcoin
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Bitcoin -> Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Weekly Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Weekly Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Weekly Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Weekly Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Weekly Z-score Return Distribution
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Bitcoin -> Weekly Z-score Return Distribution
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NLU + Sentiment
• Hypothesis • Public sentiment drives market prices
for crypto assets• Data
• Reddit• Methods
• Off the shelf sentiment classifiers (NLTK+TextBlob)
• SocialSent
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NLU Data● Too much data
○ All comments on cryptocurrency related subreddits ever
○ Narrowed to r/btc and r/Bitcoin● Comment Text● Timestamp● Score (Upvotes/Downvotes) ● Author● Metadata
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NLU Methods
● Off the shelf sentiment classifiers ○ NLTK ○ TextBlob○ Poor performance
● SocialSent: Inducing Domain-Specific Lexicons from Unlabeled Corpora○ William L. Hamilton○ Kevin Clark○ Jure Leskovec○ Dan Jurafsky
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SocialSent1. Co-Occurrence VSM
a. Vocab 5000 most frequent words b. Automatically includes seed words
2. PPMI3. SVD (Singular Value Decomposition)
a. dimensions = 3004. Turn the VSM into a Graph
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SocialSent1. Propagate sentiment from seed words
in the graph2. Use random walk to obtain positive and
negative polarity scores3. Weight those scores to obtain final
polarity
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Price 1 hour after 25 sigma event using weekly moving z-score
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NLU Further Work
● Use of sentiment time series as feature in broader RNN● Lower hanging fruit -> current methods are complex and rely on assumptions● Time
○ Tuning hyperparameters, exploring data further● Using a densifier training method for subreddits with 100B+ tokens of data ● Entity recognition and resolution
○ “How often is Bitcoin mentioned?”○ “Are BCH, BTC, BCHABC, and BSV different things?”
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Training
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Training Phase 1
• Didn’t give enough time per model• Some early helpful results• Training on BTC 120 minutes
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Training Phase 2
• Identified some key hyperparameters• More training necessary
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Training Phase 3
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Model Results - multiple time periodsCoin Pred Minutes Real Train Acc. Alpha Train Acc. Real Test Acc. Alpha Test Acc.
BTC 120 65.26% 56.24% 57.87% 50.32%
BTC 120 58.22% 54.39% 54.15% 51.45%
LTC 120 59.81% 55.24% 53.27% 50.88%
LTC 5 58.32% 53.25% 54.02% 51.80%
LTC 5 68.42% 60.25% 62.77% 54.59%
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Focus On LTC-5minCoin Pred Minutes Real Train Acc. Alpha Train Acc. Real Test Acc. Alpha Test Acc.
BTC 120 65.26% 56.24% 57.87% 50.32%
BTC 120 58.22% 54.39% 54.15% 51.45%
LTC 120 59.81% 55.24% 53.27% 50.88%
LTC 5 58.32% 53.25% 54.02% 51.80%
LTC 5 68.42% 60.25% 62.77% 54.59%
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Model Analysis - Sample Space Ω
Recall @ 0.50 Investment Thresh
Positive Recall: 62.12%Negative Recall: 63.32%
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Model Analysis - Event Space E⊆Ω
Recall @ 0.55 Investment Thresh
Positive Recall: 74.81%Negative Recall: 70.01%
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Model Analysis - Event Space E⊆Ω
Recall @ 0.60 Investment Thresh
Positive Recall: 80.81%Negative Recall: 78.23%
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Market
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Market Results @ 25 basis point cost per trade
Investment Threshold: 0.50Return %: -488.42%Sharpe: -19.90
Investment Threshold: 0.60Return %: -58.99%Sharpe: -24.28
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Market Results @ 10 basis point cost per trade
Investment Threshold: 0.50Return %: -111.97%Sharpe: -05.05
Investment Threshold: 0.60Return %: -4.50%Sharpe: -2.04
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Market Results @ 05 basis point cost per trade
Investment Threshold: 0.50Return %: 13.89%Sharpe: 0.639
Investment Threshold: 0.60Return %: 13.65%Sharpe: 6.27
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Best Entry
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Market Results @ 04 basis point cost per trade
Investment Threshold: 0.50Return %: 39.01%Sharpe: 1.79
Investment Threshold: 0.60Return %: 17.27%Sharpe: 7.95
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Theoreticals
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Market Results @ 02 basis point cost per trade
Investment Threshold: 0.50Return %: 89.24%Sharpe: 4.12
Investment Threshold: 0.60Return %: 24.54%Sharpe: 11.31
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Theoretical Limit
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Market Results @ 00 basis point cost per trade
Investment Threshold: 0.50Return %: 139.48%Sharpe: 6.44
Investment Threshold: 0.60Return %: 31.80%Sharpe: 14.64
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So What?
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Problem Solved - Kinda
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Problem Solved - Kinda
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The End.